Goodluck!!!!
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2-1 today
Thread: 24-18 (+4.89u)
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Good workComment -
Thanks guys. I appreciate the drop ins.
Monday is looking like a pass. BOL with your plays!
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I’m looking at Iowa st u and st Mary’s u
thoughts?Comment -
For Tuesday:
11:30 Grand Canyon +5
LoVett didn't travel. Very late east coast start. This is a big deal for the Antelopes. Note: game is not on campus.
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8:00 UAB/Troy u145
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9:00 San Jose St/Denver o142.5
Should be a ton of FTs. Let's hope they make them!
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Barring a big line move, just these three today. BOL with your plays!
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I lied:
7:00 Virginia/West Virginia u134.5
I typically shy away from contrasting tempos for totals, but we have a couple of data points to use as guideposts here. The last two seasons these two have scored 123 and 124 points on 61 and 65 possessions. Based on that, I'm comfortable assuming UVa can dictate the tempo a little better than WVU tonight. (I do note that neither of the previous games were played in Morgantown, which might provide a slight edge to the Mountaineers in terms of energy.). Interestingly, both of the previous games were about 10 points below the kenpom estimates. He has 133 tonight.
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Fading a big line move here. Use caution:
7:00 Montana St/Central Michigan u 151.5
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Sorry, a little hectic for a few minutes. The CMU line bothered me last night at 148. I thought that was high based on this year's teams. Last year CMU was one of he fastest teams in the nation, but that pace is an outlier for Keno Davis teams. He basically let Marcus Keene and Braylon Rayson cross half court and fire. They were also one of the nation's worst defensive teams last year. Long story short, these two played a game to 209 points last year on 82 possessions, including 84 points in the last 10 minutes. Crazy.
I get ~67 possessions for this game, which should be slow enough to keep this in the 140s. The line movement was crazy though. It quickly dropped to 145 this morning and then just popped to 151.5.
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And now it's 156. GTFOComment -
Had a nibble at under 157.5! BOL tonight, HG.
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One still pending for Tuesday night, but I have these for Wednesday so far:
7:00 Eastern Michigan +2
7:00 Buffalo -3.5
8:00 Rhode Island/Alabama o145
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2-3 yesterday. UAB/Troy hot shooting kept us from a winning day.
Thread: 26-21 (+3.59u)
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Quoting in case the overnights were missed. Looking like more plays than usual for me today. Next up:
9:00 UC Irvine +8
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7:00 Toledo/Detroit u171
I agree with kenpom on 76 possessions here, which should give us some cushion for the under. Howeve, these two have played to 138 and 147 on 72 and 70 possessions the last two years. Hoping to see a game more in line with that pace.
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7:00 St Bonaventure/Canisius o143.5
I disagree a little with kenpom here and get 70+ possessions (versus his 67). Last year these two played an OT game that finished 106-101, and they were tied at 90 at the end of regulation. The year before they got up to 150. The Bonnie's shouldn't have any trouble doing their part, so lets hope Canisius can get close to 70.
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Looks like that's it for me. I don't set limits on the number of plays in a day, but this is pretty high mid-week volume for me. BOL with all of your plays!
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Crush it!
Great readsComment -
2-4 night. We were in all of them, but the breaks didn't go our way tonight. That Detroit ending involved one of the most moronic plays I've ever seen. Idiot intentionally fouled up 2 with 2 seconds remaining. They scored 5 points in the last 2 seconds to send it over.
Thread: 28-25 (+2.19u)
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Tough break, but we'll bounce back. The Detroit ending, and .5 away with Buffalo. To add insult to injury I was 1 pt away with St. Bonaventure, and the goddamn uncontested 3-pointer from Wesley Matthews when Celtics were just running down the clock and gave them the ball was the icing on the cake.
Btw, surely you mean 2-4? No worries, though. Your contribution is invaluable!Comment -
Was worried I had accidentally placed under/over when it should've been the other way around. Looking forward to your next picks.
have a good one today!
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For Friday:
10:00 Eastern Washington/San Francisco o141.5
This is one that doesn't look great if you go by season averages as both teams hover pretty close to 70 ppg scored and allowed. However, these three have played the past three years to scores totaling 186, 158, and 157. Normally I prefer high pace over all else, but when these two meet, the efficiency is really high. One of the reasons for that is bad perimeter defense, another is a high foul rates. Another theory I have that I've noticed over the years, but can't really qualify, is that when the small schools play each other after getting pounded by the big dogs for a few games, they tend to execute much better. At any rate, I think we get close to 70 possessions here, which should get us well into the 140s at least.
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Light card, and it looks like the EWU game is my only play today, so I thought I'd write just a little about methodology.
Yesterday was an excellent example of a losing day that I can't get upset about. As I've said before, pace of play is the single biggest aspect of playing totals for me. I am pretty confident in my ability to predict the pace of games in terms of possessions per game. If I can get that part of the game right, it's usually not too hard to pick and over/under based on points per possession. But last night shows how easily points per possession can vary. Let's look at each game...
St Bonnie's/URI - This was the game where I missed the pace by a little. I had 70+ possessions and it ended with 68. If they had gotten to 71 possessions like I thought, the over would have hit based on the points per possession throughout the game. This is loss is on my failure to correctly predict pace.
Toledo/Detroit - This one I actually overestimated the possessions. I had 76 and it ended with 75. The problem here is that both teams exceeded their average points per possession by about 10%. This kind of loss doesn't bother me very much because of the high variance in efficiency. That said, I could have weighed defensive efficiency (or inefficiency in this case) a little more.
URI/Bama - I didn't post a possession estimate for this one, but the game went way over my number of possessions. It finished with 77 possessions. At even a modest 1 point per possession this game would have sailed over. Unfortunately, both teams were at least 10% below their season efficiency numbers. Like the Detroit game, this one doesn't bother me as much.
Just a few thoughts as we move forward. With two losing days in a row, I think it's always a good idea to take a step back and evaluate what is working and what isn't.
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Good stuff bro. Anyone interested in capping this sport would be wise to read and learn from your post!!Comment -
This is excellent analysis. With the St Bonnie's game, you would have cleared the hurdle if Niagara was a little more interested in extending the game.Light card, and it looks like the EWU game is my only play today, so I thought I'd write just a little about methodology.
Yesterday was an excellent example of a losing day that I can't get upset about. As I've said before, pace of play is the single biggest aspect of playing totals for me. I am pretty confident in my ability to predict the pace of games in terms of possessions per game. If I can get that part of the game right, it's usually not too hard to pick and over/under based on points per possession. But last night shows how easily points per possession can vary. Let's look at each game...
St Bonnie's/URI - This was the game where I missed the pace by a little. I had 70+ possessions and it ended with 68. If they had gotten to 71 possessions like I thought, the over would have hit based on the points per possession throughout the game. This is loss is on my failure to correctly predict pace.
Toledo/Detroit - This one I actually overestimated the possessions. I had 76 and it ended with 75. The problem here is that both teams exceeded their average points per possession by about 10%. This kind of loss doesn't bother me very much because of the high variance in efficiency. That said, I could have weighed defensive efficiency (or inefficiency in this case) a little more.
URI/Bama - I didn't post a possession estimate for this one, but the game went way over my number of possessions. It finished with 77 possessions. At even a modest 1 point per possession this game would have sailed over. Unfortunately, both teams were at least 10% below their season efficiency numbers. Like the Detroit game, this one doesn't bother me as much.
Just a few thoughts as we move forward. With two losing days in a row, I think it's always a good idea to take a step back and evaluate what is working and what isn't.
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Many thanks. And yours as well.
It was Canisius, but you're exactly right. Right around the 1 minute mark Caninsius couldn't get into any offense and ended up burning about 30 seconds off the clock with no points and nothing but wild 3-point attempts. If they had played for 2 and then fouled, we would have easily gotten there. These things happen.
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CheersComment -
That over in San Fran is pretty interesting, both teams jack a lot of 3's (as in 42 and 48% of their shots respectively!) which odd considering neither shoot it particularly well. On bright side as you mentioned neither defend it well either. Should be no shortage of opportunities just a matter of whether they falling, both shot it well over 50% in this game last year but both had significantly better percentages than they do thus far this year.. bombs away! GlComment -
Yep. Most of these guys are much better shooters over their careers than they have shown this season. Foul rate is very high for both defenses as well. They both foul on 30% of their defensive possessions. I usually shy away from 3 point heavy teams, but I agree that there will be a lot of chances tonight.
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