HG's 2017-18 College Basketball Thread

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-10-17, 09:47 AM

Noon Tulane/Florida St o156.5
I don't think I've played an over this high yet, but I like the matchup of tempos here. FSU forces opponents into about 8 more possessions per game than theey average and that number is about 10 for Tulane. I think we see a game like the 97-74 game Tulane played against UNC. Note: this is not a true home game for FSU. It's in Tampa.

**ChrisPicks** · 12-10-17, 11:03 AM

HeeluvaGuy, you're doing a great job!!!!

Goodluck!!!!

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-10-17, 11:55 AM

Thanks Chris!

Looks like just these two today. BOL to all with your plays!

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-10-17, 12:59 PM

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

Noon Tulane/Florida St o156.5
I don't think I've played an over this high yet, but I like the matchup of tempos here. FSU forces opponents into about 8 more possessions per game than theey average and that number is about 10 for Tulane. I think we see a game like the 97-74 game Tulane played against UNC. Note: this is not a true home game for FSU. It's in Tampa.

Wow. These two averaged .605 points per possession in the first half. Didn't account for that. Yikes!

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-10-17, 05:09 PM

0-2 day thanks to two terrible first halves.

Thread: 35-30 (+3.69u)

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-11-17, 10:19 AM

Almost certainly a pass on Monday. GL with your plays!

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-11-17, 06:00 PM

Upon further review, one for tonight:

8:00 Drake/Minnesota u156.5

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-11-17, 10:09 PM

1-0. Got a game much slower than I anticipated. No complaints.

Thread: 36-30 (+4.69u)

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-11-17, 11:52 PM

Tuesday:

7:00 UW Green Bay/Indiana St o144.5 (2u)
This is a rare 2u play for me. I'll try to write about it time permitting.

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-12-17, 08:31 AM

On the Green Bay/Indiana St over:

The line moved against me overnight a bit, but I still believe this is a solid play. In hindsight, I should have waited because 143 is the kenpom total and these lines tend to move toward his numbers not away. His 143 is based on 73 possessions. I get 76 and think we could see more, in part because GB has played some slowdown teams that have skewed their defensive time of possession numbers. Neither team is great offensively, but at this pace we don't need them to be. Foul rates are pretty good at about 25% of possessions. Under Linc Darner, GB has been a foul to the end type of team, which could help if it's close and we need points at the end. Other models I've seen have this one at 150, 151, and 147.

**ChrisPicks** · 12-12-17, 08:34 AM

HeeluvaGuy, goodluck!!!

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-12-17, 04:43 PM

Thank you Chris!

7:00 Monmouth +140

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-12-17, 05:12 PM

One more:

7:00 Mississippi St/Cincinnati o137

**CappinTerp** · 12-12-17, 06:24 PM

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

On the Green Bay/Indiana St over:

The line moved against me overnight a bit, but I still believe this is a solid play. In hindsight, I should have waited because 143 is the kenpom total and these lines tend to move toward his numbers not away. His 143 is based on 73 possessions. I get 76 and think we could see more, in part because GB has played some slowdown teams that have skewed their defensive time of possession numbers. Neither team is great offensively, but at this pace we don't need them to be. Foul rates are pretty good at about 25% of possessions. Under Linc Darner, GB has been a foul to the end type of team, which could help if it's close and we need points at the end. Other models I've seen have this one at 150, 151, and 147.

HG we all look at things differently or weight things with a diff. prospective and that is OK and normal.I may not know much but sometimes I welcome a move against me,and may even add more to my bet. Don't get me wrong,we all want the best price possible......but at times,one should consider fading a move. As in all games it may work out or not....just something to consider and/or not worry about the move...............................I hope you hit this bud..................................... .BOL

**jameski999** · 12-12-17, 08:05 PM

Indiana st scoreless last 5 mins of the half not good.

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-12-17, 09:07 PM

Originally posted by jameski999

Indiana st scoreless last 5 mins of the half not good.

But just enough in the second.

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-12-17, 09:09 PM

Originally posted by CappinTerp

HG we all look at things differently or weight things with a diff. prospective and that is OK and normal.I may not know much but sometimes I welcome a move against me,and may even add more to my bet. Don't get me wrong,we all want the best price possible......but at times,one should consider fading a move. As in all games it may work out or not....just something to consider and/or not worry about the move...............................I hope you hit this bud..................................... .BOL

Thanks. I don't really sweat line moves. I know a good deal less about the market's than I do the fundamentals. I was more just upset with myself for not recognizing the possibility that this one could move down a bit. In the end, it didn't matter. And, frankly, I lose as many when the line moves in my favor as when it doesn't.

**jameski999** · 12-12-17, 09:31 PM

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

But just enough in the second.

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-12-17, 10:05 PM

1-2 night, but got the right "1"

Thread: 36-32 (+4.59u)

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-12-17, 11:16 PM

For Wednesday:

9:00 Houston/LSU u155
I agree with kenpom on the pace here, 70/71 possessions. But I think LSU's offensive numbers are propped up by having played a bunch of really weak defensive teams. Last year these two played to 149 points on 68 possessions, and Will Wade prefers a slower pace than Johnny Jones did when he coached the Tigers. Houston's foul rate does concern me a bit, but I still like this one to stay under 155.

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-13-17, 08:03 AM

8:00 Arkansas St/Omaha o154

**Balco10** · 12-13-17, 10:01 AM

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

8:00 Arkansas St/Omaha o154

Good read!
Currently at 157 now.

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-13-17, 12:02 PM

Originally posted by Balco10

Good read!
Currently at 157 now.

If only that guaranteed a winner... BOL with your plays!

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-13-17, 12:04 PM

8:00 Western Kentucky/Wisconsin u134.5
I get 65 possessions here, but it could be slower than that. Wisconsin is really struggling and is down 3 players, including he starting PG. As long as WKU doesn't go crazy from three, this one should be played in the 60s.

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-13-17, 10:56 PM

0-3 brutal night. Might take the next two off.

Thread: 36-35 (+1.29u)

**GPrime19** · 12-13-17, 11:27 PM

Shake it off buddy.. your time is comin’ !

**sagorjanski** · 12-14-17, 07:44 AM

Kick back and have a brew, or if there's any valuable prospects, do share. I'm with you either way.

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-14-17, 10:25 AM

Thanks guys. Didn't mean to give the wrong impression. I'm not going away. The games last night were discouraging, but in the end two of the losses were by one basket. I was right on about the pace in the LSU game. Unfortunately, they seemed to make everything they threw at the rim. It happens.

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-14-17, 11:42 AM

Turns out I do have one for Thursday:

10:00 Santa Clara/USC o140.5
This is one of those games where I disagree with kenpom by 5 possessions or more. I get 71/72 and he has 66. Lesser teams have sped up Santa Clara this year, and I expect USC to look to get right after a few losses. My only concern here is that Santa Clara will probably need to get into the 60s for the over to hit. Since they're so perimeter oriented, I like their chances better than if they were going to try to challenge USC's bigs.

**CappinTerp** · 12-14-17, 12:03 PM

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

0-3 brutal night. Might take the next two off.

Thread: 36-35 (+1.29u)

That is a thing ,that happens to me alot,it sucks....it is wise to take a few days off. One time I Went on a 3-17 bashing !! Just don't chase or try to get it back fast.....and you will get it back!!!...............................BO L....HG!!

**jeffchitown** · 12-14-17, 12:10 PM

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

Turns out I do have one for Thursday:

10:00 Santa Clara/USC o140.5
This is one of those games where I disagree with kenpom by 5 possessions or more. I get 71/72 and he has 66. Lesser teams have sped up Santa Clara this year, and I expect USC to look to get right after a few losses. My only concern here is that Santa Clara will probably need to get into the 60s for the over to hit. Since they're so perimeter oriented, I like their chances better than if they were going to try to challenge USC's bigs.

Tailing yours. Hopefully between you and BMOC I'll get two solid wins tonight.

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-14-17, 04:11 PM

Originally posted by CappinTerp

That is a thing ,that happens to me alot,it sucks....it is wise to take a few days off. One time I Went on a 3-17 bashing !! Just don't chase or try to get it back fast.....and you will get it back!!!...............................BO L....HG!!

There are so many games in CBB that you almost have to take days off every now and then. I'm not a chaser and don't post things I haven't researched and played myself. Hopefully just a blip over a looong season.

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-14-17, 04:11 PM

Originally posted by jeffchitown

Tailing yours. Hopefully between you and BMOC I'll get two solid wins tonight.

BOL to us!

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-14-17, 07:02 PM

For Friday:

10:00 UC Davis +5.5

**2daBank** · 12-14-17, 08:39 PM

Funny, I just decided what the hell and gave card a look and played that USC over as well.