HG's 2017-18 College Basketball Thread

[HeeluvaGuy]

Most likely the last one for Friday:

5:30 Duke/Texas o148
I think we get an up and down game here with 75 possessions or so. At that pace, I think we get over 148 fairly easily.

[HeeluvaGuy]

2-2 day because two teams couldn't score 60

Thread: 10-9 (-.33u)

[HeeluvaGuy]

Saturday:

1:00 Ball St/Indiana St u149
I haven't been very good so far with predicting game paces, so tread lightly. This game looks like one that will be played in the low 70s pace-wise. In particular, I think ISU's numbers are a little inflated by the 4OT game against Ohio (tied 63-63 at the end of regulation). Neither team shoots very well, but free throw rates do concern me a bit.

8:00 Western Illinois/Iowa St o142.5
This is a pretty modest total for an Iowa St game. The Cyclones have struggled some early in the season, but they should dominate this game, and 100 points is not out of the realm of possibility here. WIU has scored well against non D-1 competition, but has struggled offensively in its D-1 games. Fortunately, ISU has been mediocre on defense and should score quickly on the other end, creating some extra possessions here.

[HeeluvaGuy]

0-2 yesterday and not a good weekend. Taking Sunday off because of travel, etc. and to get a little break. Back at it Monday.
Thread: 10-11 (-2.53u)

[HeeluvaGuy]

Tuesday:

7:00 Brown/Rhode Island o144.5

[HeeluvaGuy]

This is probably it for Tuesday:

10:00 UCSB +6

[HeeluvaGuy]

Uno mas:

8:00 Colorado St/Missouri St o138

[HeeluvaGuy]

Last one (really):

8:30 Georgetown -23.5

[HeeluvaGuy]

Tuesday:

7:00 Brown/Rhode Island o144.5

This line is up to 156, so I'm going to try to middle it:

Brown/Rhode Island u156

[Louisvillekid1]

Killin those total lines wow

[HeeluvaGuy]

4-1 day, which included a nice middle in the URI game and UCSB as a SU winner.

Thread: 14-12 (+.77u)

[Fabiodog]

Good work

[doubledime]

4-1 day, which included a nice middle in the URI game and UCSB as a SU winner.

Thread: 14-12 (+.77u)

Nicely done HG

[HeeluvaGuy]

Thanks guys. For Wednesday:

7:00 Arkansas St +103

7:15 Clemson/Ohio St o140.5

9:00 Wyoming/Denver o143.5


Keeping an eye on a couple of others that will become plays with the right movement. Sorry for the lack of writeups, but it's tough during the week. All posted plays have he same due diligence whether there's a writeup or not.

[CappinTerp]

Good luck bud,have not looked at the games yet,hope you sweep it today!!

[Louisvillekid1]

crush it

[HeeluvaGuy]

Thanks to lkid and banker for pointing out the line move here:

8:00 UNLV/Northern Iowa u142

[HeeluvaGuy]

This is one of the line moves I was hoping to see. Last Wednesday play:

8:00 Louisiana Tech/Alabama o143
I'm not counting on John Petty playing. He's still officially questionable. Maybe the upside is more shots for Collin Sexton. I think this is an up and down affair and am splitting from kenpom's prediction of just 68 possessions (LaTech had played a bunch of slowdown teams and Bama is not one of those this year).

[HeeluvaGuy]

Here's my rationale on the Bama over:

Kenpom has 141 and only 68 possessions, but I think this game may demonstrate one of the few flaws in his approach. La Tech has only gotten to 70 possessions once this season against D-1 teams, and that was in OT. However, the primary reason for this is that they have played the 276, 309, and 343 slowest offensive teams in college basketball by possession length. Bama is top 40 in that stat (and LaTech is in the top half at 175th). I think we get closer to 73 possessions here.

[HeeluvaGuy]

3-2 day, but it took OT to beat us on the UNI under. Arkansas St also had the ball with a chance to win on the last possession but blew it. Back at it tomorrow.

Thread: 17-14 (+1.67u)

[Capybara]

Keep fightin', Heel, love what you do.

[dwatersalec]

Here's my rationale on the Bama over:

Kenpom has 141 and only 68 possessions, but I think this game may demonstrate one of the few flaws in his approach. La Tech has only gotten to 70 possessions once this season against D-1 teams, and that was in OT. However, the primary reason for this is that they have played the 276, 309, and 343 slowest offensive teams in college basketball by possession length. Bama is top 40 in that stat (and LaTech is in the top half at 175th). I think we get closer to 73 possessions here.

This comment is about as good as it gets. Talk about digging into the data! Excellent job!

[HeeluvaGuy]

Thanks guys. Glad it's helpful. First one for Thursday:

10:00 Pacific/UC Riverside u148

[HeeluvaGuy]

Not a lot to choose from today. May not have much more:

7:00 W Carolina/College of Charleston u141.5

[HeeluvaGuy]

This is probably it for Thursday:

9:00 Temple -1 +102

[wlulaxer]

Thanks HG

[doubledime]

This comment is about as good as it gets. Talk about digging into the data! Excellent job!

HG is a "digger" for sure. Well done HG

[Cardinals01]

Not a lot to choose from today. May not have much more:

7:00 W Carolina/College of Charleston u141.5

HG - Thanks for the plays! What do you have the projected total to be? I was initially leaning over in this game.

[HeeluvaGuy]

HG - Thanks for the plays! What do you have the projected total to be? I was initially leaning over in this game.

At this point in the season I'm really working with ranges of outcomes more than precise numbers. When/if I dust off my model I will have scores for every game available, but that's still just one tool I use. With that said, here's where I am on this game:

Using current season stats only, I get a high score of 143. However, that's using 73 possessions which I think is high by 5 or so due to how these teams historically play under these coaches (and against each other somewhat).

So if I have a high range of 143, why the under at 141.5? Well, based on the slower pace I expect to see, I get a score of 134. (FWIW, I agree with kenpom on 68 possessions here.) I also like to see what other computer models have. Kenpom has 137, Massey has 128 (and ~77% chance of staying below 142), and DRatings has 136. I also looked back at the last couple of meetings to see how these styles play out. The last two years they have played games totaling 136 and 113 on 65 and 64 possessions. So I feel pretty good that I have the pace right. As always, unexpectedly hot shooting can kill any under (along with refs that call too many fouls).

That may may be more than you wanted, but if you guys are using my picks to help you out, it's only right that you have some idea where I'm coming from.

[DOM_Toretto]

Okay Mr Totals... what’s your thoughts on MSU-ND o/u 139?

I am not much of a totals guy but this feels low. ND shoots FTs well and will likely come into the Breslin attempting lots of 3s. MSU should use its size advantage for easy layups and dunks down low. If it’s relatively close game you’ll get the fouling game at the end.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Okay Mr Totals... what’s your thoughts on MSU-ND o/u 139?

I am not much of a totals guy but this feels low. ND shoots FTs well and will likely come into the Breslin attempting lots of 3s. MSU should use its size advantage for easy layups and dunks down low. If it’s relatively close game you’ll get the fouling game at the end.

Honestly, that's not a game I even considered for a number of reasons including some recency bias after what MSU did to UNC on Sunday (worst shooting performance in UNC history, FYI). Another reason I don't like these types of games is you have two efficient offenses against two efficient defenses. I find those types of matchups harder to predict than strength vs weakness type games.

Looking at the numbers, I get 65-67 possessions. So at least one team needs to overcome the other's defense for this to go over (duh, right?). One thing that really bugs me about the over is that ND just doesn't foul (or at least doesn't get called for it). The FT line is still the most efficient way to score, and that's a really important factor for me in handicapping totals.

Like you, I can see a path to the over, but if the MSU defense from Sunday shows up, there's no way it gets into the 140s. Since I don't have any way to quantify that, this game is a pass for me.

[DOM_Toretto]

Thanks for your thoughts.

Maybe I’ll see if there’s another ML I like and could parlay with MSU ML...

[HeeluvaGuy]

Thanks for your thoughts.

Maybe I’ll see if there’s another ML I like and could parlay with MSU ML...

Any time. Mine is just one approach/opinion. GL with whatever you do!

[Cardinals01]

At this point in the season I'm really working with ranges of outcomes more than precise numbers. When/if I dust off my model I will have scores for every game available, but that's still just one tool I use. With that said, here's where I am on this game:

Using current season stats only, I get a high score of 143. However, that's using 73 possessions which I think is high by 5 or so due to how these teams historically play under these coaches (and against each other somewhat).

So if I have a high range of 143, why the under at 141.5? Well, based on the slower pace I expect to see, I get a score of 134. (FWIW, I agree with kenpom on 68 possessions here.) I also like to see what other computer models have. Kenpom has 137, Massey has 128 (and ~77% chance of staying below 142), and DRatings has 136. I also looked back at the last couple of meetings to see how these styles play out. The last two years they have played games totaling 136 and 113 on 65 and 64 possessions. So I feel pretty good that I have the pace right. As always, unexpectedly hot shooting can kill any under (along with refs that call too many fouls).

That may may be more than you wanted, but if you guys are using my picks to help you out, it's only right that you have some idea where I'm coming from.

Not at all, I appreciate all of the information and he insight you provide. Thanks!

[2daBank]

Honestly, that's not a game I even considered for a number of reasons including some recency bias after what MSU did to UNC on Sunday (worst shooting performance in UNC history, FYI). Another reason I don't like these types of games is you have two efficient offenses against two efficient defenses. I find those types of matchups harder to predict than strength vs weakness type games.

Looking at the numbers, I get 65-67 possessions. So at least one team needs to overcome the other's defense for this to go over (duh, right?). One thing that really bugs me about the over is that ND just doesn't foul (or at least doesn't get called for it). The FT line is still the most efficient way to score, and that's a really important factor for me in handicapping totals.

Like you, I can see a path to the over, but if the MSU defense from Sunday shows up, there's no way it gets into the 140s. Since I don't have any way to quantify that, this game is a pass for me.

Honestly not sure how much credit I want to give sparty's defense against unc? Heels missed a ungodly amount uncontested layups in that game. I suppose a case could be made they were "hearing footsteps" so to speak as sparty did block a number of shots early on.. I just don't recall seeing a game with the amount of misses unc had on uncontested good looks!!