Yeah, I didn't take the Over, but took Nevada +5, and that melted down too! Nevada took so many bad and forced shots in the 2H, and missed many short ones. I thought they were a smart well coached team, but not last night.
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Its prob time to pull the plug on maac oversComment -
Any thoughts on the duke game? I like that gm over.Comment -
Would be nice if this seemingly unending run of one and two point losses would stop. Last night Akron started 0-15 from three and that one lost by 2. In the late game needed 4 points in the last 2 minutes and only got 2.
For of the last six losses are by a total of 6 points. Frustrating to say the least.Comment -
Close losses. Blowout wins. Thats been the theme for FebComment -
February feels a lot worse than 36-38 -5.7u, huh? Three of the close calls break the other way and it’s a slightly positive month. Always amazing how razor thin the margin for error is.
Anyway, plenty of games still to go. Just FYI for this weekend, I should have Saturday’s plays out Friday night or early Saturday. Not 100% sure I’ll be able to do Sunday, but if so any plays will be made Sunday morning. Got a 2-day music festival to enjoy…Comment -
Also just noticed that Betstamp put me on the featured users list. What timing…Comment -
Enjoy the music festivalComment -
Gonna be a rough one tonightComment -
How did Oral not go Over? Just needed 10 points in the last 3.5 minutes.Comment -
With the caveat that not all CLV is created equally, I have beaten the closing line in each of my last 7 bets. I’ve won one of those games.
Last night I not only beat the closer in the UNT/Charlotte game, I beat the number RAS played. Still lost. Believe it or not, my CLV is better in February than it has been over the course of the rest of the season.
Sorry to vent, but the last couple of weeks have been odd to say the least.Comment -
March will roll my man, keep up the grind, definitely some bad beats this month!Comment -
Enjoy the Music Festival, thanks for your playsComment -
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I'm not sure what their criteria is. They put me on there last season so I reached out a few weeks ago and asked them what the criteria is since my record at the time was better than last season. Then they added me yesterday. Always impressive to start 0-3 after something like that happens.Comment -
Decent day todayComment -
I dont like that n fla gm tonight. They just played. Hit 20 threes and the gm went over by only 6. Add in a neutral site. Bellarmine is solid defensively. Just my opinion. I never root against anybody so I hope it hits but I would pass on this gm.Comment -
I was wrong. Nice hit! I was shocked how efficient on offense Bellarmine played. Great win for themComment -
I didn’t like that it was a back to back game like that, but I don’t have any data to use to adjust for that sort of flukey scheduling so I went with what I had. Typically I don’t put a lot of stock in any one game when it comes to handicapping, but I did watch a lot of the previous game. Notably, even though that game only went over by a handful of points, it was always on pace to go over and even had 121 points with 10 minutes to play. Bellarmine went a cold at that point but the over was never really in doubt.
Good thing for me it worked out because the late game was a clunker.Comment -
What do you use for pace of play? Kenpom?Comment -
I use his raw time of possession data to come up with my own predictions. I have adjustments for home/away, opponent strength, and even the time between when the ball goes through the net to the time it’s inbounded.
Very generally speaking, slower teams have more influence on pace than faster teams (there’s only so much you can do to speed a team up), better teams have more influence than worse teams (kind of a “duh,” but it took some time figuring out to what degree), and home teams influence pace more than away teams.Comment -
All of that makes sense to me. I definitely agree on slower paced teams having a greater influence. You can see this clearly when watching games. Thanks for the input.Comment -
That was one of those sayings that I always assumed to be true but still wanted to see the data. I hate stall ball, so my nightmare is watching slow teams who offensive rebound well. Saw a possession the other day that lasted a minute and a half between fouls and offensive rebounds. Wanted to gouge my eyes out.Comment -
Thats why I hate Virginia games lol. They could be down 10 and they are still passing up open looks to move the ball aroundComment -
This has gone off the rails. Im tapping out. Good luck with the rest of the seasonComment -
Lost OSU by 1 and now the Bama under in OT. Pretty much sums up the last 4 weeks or so.Comment -
Head scratchers for sure. Some tough luck.
I had a game last night where I had the favorite -5. They were up 8 and in the last 6-7 seconds, they just let the other team grab rebounds and shoot 3s until they finally made one with one second to go. Can't blame them, but dayum! At least grab a loose ball or knock it away.Comment -
You’re starting to heat up. Keep it upComment -
Unders were 20-6 yesterday. GeezComment -
Yeah, possessions were way down from predicted yesterday overall. Feel fortunate that I went 2-1 with my overs.Comment -
Someone across the street posted that unders in the big dance are like 55-56% winners over the last twenty yrs. The last 4 yrs in a row were plus money for unders. I think last year from the sweet sixteen on unders were like 12-3Comment
