2022-23 NCAAB Totals

[Renegades]

Nvm I see the original post

[HeeluvaGuy]

There’s a follow feature that allows you to get alerts if you’re interested.

[Renegades]

Thank you

[matt711]

Damnnn great nite!

[weim5]

Damnnn great nite!

Amazing night and not to be greedy but the Beavers should have gone over - they scored a combined 8 points in the last 5 minutes!!

Ayo also 3-0 tonight.

[HeeluvaGuy]

I won’t complain about 6-2, but man 7-1 was right there.

[Renegades]

Mt st mrys has the worst offense in the maac. I watched them vs Fairfield (my alma mater). They are dreadful

[HeeluvaGuy]

Mt st mrys has the worst offense in the maac. I watched them vs Fairfield (my alma mater). They are dreadful

It's bad, but last night they set tied their season low for a game. Back to back nights where one team scored 1 point the last 4 minutes to keep it under by a couple of points. Not much you can do about those.

[barnstorm]

A couple of bad, late game droughts to keep them under. Furman only had two points in the last 2:43.Wofford only 5. Youngstown and N. Kentucky similar. N. Kentucky missed two point-blank putbacks and a couple of 3s in the last 2 mins. and Youngstown missed a couple of free throws down the stretch. A couple of other big leads in other games led to clock-killing and no Overs. Tough day.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Calling it a tough day is being unnecessarily kind. The last two Saturdays have been awful. I'm keeping an eye out for something structurally wrong with my approach but haven't found anything glaring yet.

[matt711]

Helluvaguy, keep doing what your thing, you have definitely had more great days than losing days, thanks for sharing your plays!

[weim5]

Helluvaguy, keep doing what your thing, you have definitely had more great days than losing days, thanks for sharing your plays!

Well said - not every day is going to be a winner. Keep to your plan - it’s working. For what it’s worth, you do tend to play the same teams, which makes sense based on your model! I just wonder if the lines are being adjusted (as one would expect throughout the season) to account for the those team’s pace & efficiency? I think Ayo used to say that as the season goes on it becomes increasingly difficult - which, again, makes total sense!

[HeeluvaGuy]

Thanks guys.

Just looking through yesterday there were a couple of games that were slower than I predicted and would have gone over with a couple of more possessions (NKU/Youngstown, Wofford/Furman). There were also a couple of games where teams set their season low in points and/or efficiency. Butler/Marquette and Colgate/American were complete outliers from an efficiency perspective. UMBC also had their lowest offensive everything in what turned out to be a 2 point loss.

No moral victories, but on closer look could just be a clustering of bad breaks.

[Renegades]

A bunch of the games that fell just short were blowouts and with blowouts you dont get the added 6-8 pts at the end of the game with free throws etc. if teams are down 20 they just waive the white flag and dont foul and a lot of times they empty the bench too.

on another note…man can utah st shoot. Wow

[matt711]

A bunch of the games that fell just short were blowouts and with blowouts you dont get the added 6-8 pts at the end of the game with free throws etc. if teams are down 20 they just waive the white flag and dont foul and a lot of times they empty the bench too.

on another note…man can utah st shoot. Wow

They can’t hit broadside of a barn, lmao

[barnstorm]

A bunch of the games that fell just short were blowouts and with blowouts you dont get the added 6-8 pts at the end of the game with free throws etc. if teams are down 20 they just waive the white flag and dont foul and a lot of times they empty the bench too.

on another note…man can utah st shoot. Wow

Yes, I noticed this also. I wonder if Overs come in less often on games where there is a heavy favorite for just this reason?

[HeeluvaGuy]

FYI I don't think I'll have any plays today. The only one I'm looking at is Texas/KU over, but I want something under 146 before I'll consider it. This isn't related to the recent bad days; there just isn't anything that looks worth playing tonight.

[matt711]

Taking over , let’s get this!

[barnstorm]

Bill Self scares me. He has always tried to hold his guys back and makes them work the ball. He doesn't allow them to take a shot early in the shot clock. Maybe I'll watch for a bit and jump in Live if they are running and it's not too late.

[barnstorm]

Bill Self scares me. He has always tried to hold his guys back and makes them work the ball. He doesn't allow them to take a shot early in the shot clock. Maybe I'll watch for a bit and jump in Live if they are running and it's not too late.

My apologies to Bill Self! He's a changed man! He let them run wild last night. Great! I tuned in and watched and when I saw them both pushing it up and down the court, I was able to jump in Live! for Over 148. Great call!

[HeeluvaGuy]

My apologies to Bill Self! He's a changed man! He let them run wild last night. Great! I tuned in and watched and when I saw them both pushing it up and down the court, I was able to jump in Live! for Over 148. Great call!

Trust the numbers, not your eyes. With the exception of one season, Self's teams are always in the top third in terms of shortest offensive possessions, and they typically don't turn it over a lot (which is a stat that can skew time of possession).

Going into last night, Texas had an average time of possession on offense of 16.2 seconds and KU was 16.4. Matching styles like that can really help speed a game up (or slow it down if both teams are slow).

[barnstorm]

Trust the numbers, not your eyes. With the exception of one season, Self's teams are always in the top third in terms of shortest offensive possessions, and they typically don't turn it over a lot (which is a stat that can skew time of possession).
Going into last night, Texas had an average time of possession on offense of 16.2 seconds and KU was 16.4. Matching styles like that can really help speed a game up (or slow it down if both teams are slow).

[Renegades]

Do you have a model for cfb totals?

[matt711]

Let’s sweep ��

[barnstorm]

3-0! Nice. And all were 10 points or better over the number.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Do you have a model for cfb totals?

I wish. I haven't come up with anything nearly as effective for football.

I do, however, have a 1st inning run model for MLB that was +38.09u over 2,220 games last season (started a couple of weeks into the season). This is the link for last season, and it's the first and only year I have run this one. I'm planning on doing this again, just not sure if I'll be able to track it on Betstamp. Last season their first inning run bets were a pain to dig through.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yppzNnXeO-k-YhBRZUiltiTMjqMTB-0K6m4pqSTqKZw/edit?usp=sharing

[Renegades]

I wish. I haven't come up with anything nearly as effective for football.

I do, however, have a 1st inning run model for MLB that was +38.09u over 2,220 games last season (started a couple of weeks into the season). This is the link for last season, and it's the first and only year I have run this one. I'm planning on doing this again, just not sure if I'll be able to track it on Betstamp. Last season their first inning run bets were a pain to dig through.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

thank you. For some reason I thought you and double dime collaborated on cfb totals.

i play all overs in cfb but with varying degrees of success haha

[Renegades]

IE i sift thru and play only the games i like to go over. If I like under in a game its a no play

[HeeluvaGuy]

thank you. For some reason I thought you and double dime collaborated on cfb totals.

i play all overs in cfb but with varying degrees of success haha

We have shared ideas, but never fully collaborated. Football is a whole different animal than basketball and apart from player props I don't bet much football any more.

I find modeling football to be extremely difficult. Sample sizes aren't great. Lineups change almost every play. Line play is arguably the most important aspect, yet really hard to quantify. Etc.

At the end of the day, I think I'm just not smart enough to figure it out despite my efforts. lol

[Renegades]

We have shared ideas, but never fully collaborated. Football is a whole different animal than basketball and apart from player props I don't bet much football any more.

I find modeling football to be extremely difficult. Sample sizes aren't great. Lineups change almost every play. Line play is arguably the most important aspect, yet really hard to quantify. Etc.

At the end of the day, I think I'm just not smart enough to figure it out despite my efforts. lol

I hear you! Its tough. I feel like there is so much variance in football and many other factors that effect the outcome of a game that you dont see in basketball

[barnstorm]

OT in Mercer-Samford saves the day and the play.

3-1 instead of 2-2.

Whew.

[HeeluvaGuy]

I'm not too proud to take a little luck. In fact, I welcome it.

[Renegades]

Uab/NT is the ultimate clash of styles

[HeeluvaGuy]

As I was saying...

I'm not too proud to take a little luck. In fact, I welcome it.

[barnstorm]

Ha! Two OTs in two days to make for winning days instead of push days. Love it. Remember this next time we get a bad beat.

I missed that Akron-Ohio Over. It is flying up to 145 at some places now. Akron is a great defensive team. Maybe I'll tune it and see how the game starts off.