I don't think 20% bankroll risk is the smartest move unless that 1% chance of losing the wager turns into a 0% risk. I'm very strict about 1% = 1 unit with 5% being my max ... definitely not telling you what to do though, Dave!
-
-
Can't catch a break lately... Under was 19 points under and it went into OT and I lost money. However, I count that as a win because my system picked it in regulation. Today's bets... nothing very attractive.
Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET Actual Away Actual Home 6:30 PM DEPAUL 58 ST JOHNS 88 146 -21.5 149.0 Parlay ML Too Close 0 0 7:00 PM OKLAHOMA ST 53 HOUSTON 82 135 -20.5 128.5 Parlay ML Too Close 0 0 Comment -
Won ML ... but it didn't pay anything... but 4-5% feels worth it.
Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET 8:00 PM SMU 81 RICE 67 148 6.5 146.0 Away Minus Too Close 9:00 PM FLA GULF COAST 73 E KENTUCKY 85 158 -8.5 143.0 Too Close Over Comment -
Thank you again.
Be well.Comment -
Kind of confused to how you're betting if it didn't pay anything? Let's use $100 as the bankroll example and SMU -275 as the wager. Are you wagering $5 (5%) on -275 to win $1.82, or are you wagering $13.8~ to win $5, which is a unit, in this example. If I'm wagering on + money I'll bet my unit size, if it's - money I'm betting to win my unit size. Is that what you're doing? The only way to kill those odds are to parlay it with another game and adjust the bet amount. SMU+Murray St hedged with SMU+Belmont. As long as you're confident SMU will NOT loseComment -
Betting:
I am betting ML as moneyline bets so they are paying -1500 or so bet 5-10% of my roll on those bets because their hit rate... is 99%+. Which means I need to win 10 bets before I lose 1 or approximately maybe 15 bets. If I team them up like the other night it generates a nice 4-5% return with minimal risk.
Spread bets and O/U bets:
I try to keep these bets to 3% of my roll. Two bets tonight.
FGCU vs. E. Kentucky is intriguing bet because my number is way off from Vegas. I am curious who is right. I have 158... they have 143 and dropping. I checked my stats and they were all correct, so I guess we will see.
Look at NBA... my system rarely picks games... and it picked two tonight.
DaveComment -
Again unless the -1500's, -1000's, -800's and 1000% locks, I don't know if flat betting the same amount on ML is the best route. There's strategies in Roulette like that - you can cover a bunch of numbers to win a chip, but it takes 5-6 hits until you are safe. Get whacked once and you're out 10 chips or whatever it may be. You'll have to parlay or bet enough to win a unit. 5-10% at a time is way too high of a risk of ruin for me though. Much rather make 100 1% wagers instead of 10 10% wagersComment -
What I'm trying to say lol is I think if you're going the ML route, you'll need to eventually parlay hedge, or bet enough to win a unit. Instead of betting $100, you'll need to bet to WIN $100. Not sure if that makes senseComment -
I understand your thought process. Right this second it is hitting at a 99% rate for the games... I am looking at. Therefore, even at a 5% return... for every 20 bets... it returns a full unit. If you win 99 and lose 1 huge upset... you still netted 4+ units. In addition, if you increase the bet size to 10% of lets say 9% that is worth 3x of the spread bets.
Therefore, those net 4 units are really worth 12 of the other type.
Yes, there is a possibility that you get an upset or maybe many upsets. However, my system isn't just looking at the spread... it is also looking at my system above and beyond the spread. So chance of failure should become less.
DaveComment -
Yesterday... was a nice little validation of the model. It wasn't that I went 2-0 in college on the night it was that on the FGCU vs E Kentucky... my system generated...
158 versus Vegas 143.
And people were betting the under because the line moved to 141. They hit 172...
Vegas wasn't close.
DaveComment -
Thank you for the winners ! Parlayed the 2 !Comment -
No problem... glad you won. It was easy last night... 47-31...
Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET 7:00 PM MARIST 75 SIENA 59 134 4 128.0 Away Minus Too Close Last edited by usma1992; 02-08-24, 03:32 PM.Comment -
Well the situation was betting odds in the high 1000's combined with 10% of the bankroll. I understand the model has proven to give a good edge, but just seems like a high ROR for me personally. 10% is a lotLast edited by Neek762; 02-08-24, 04:47 PM.Comment -
I appreciate all those that provide me feedback and questions... it makes me better. It seems ... I only have a few that even follow this thread. I am doing the best I can ... and it feels like I am producing real results. I am hitting over 60%... is it just a faithful 5 or 6 ... are others out there that give a care whether I post.
I am trying to find out whether I really add value.
DaveComment -
Work is welcomed and appreciated.
cheers.Comment -
Another winning day ! Thank youComment -
No bets tonight in college or pro...
Very happy with Marist bet... I predicted they win by 16... the spread was 4... they won exactly by 16.
DaveComment -
You are doing a great job with the picks.Comment -
RM Logic... I really appreciate it... except for a few people... my picks and my posts fall on deaf ears.
Not sure why... feels like I am printing winners. No picks tonight but I am betting on Philly under NBA because my system was close to picking it anyway... without Embiid... I think it will go under.
DaveComment -
your sample size is increasing daily, at some point (not sure if that's at 150 or more bets) you can do a statistical analysis to see if what you're predicting is 'statistically significant'. That really has to be at the .05 level, the guy who was fundamental for the test said a .1 result was "common" and meant nothing in the long run. Until you've had a bad streak (and it really has to happen, probability says so. Black came up 26 times in a row on roulette in Monte Carlo, and there was nothing wrong with the wheel) its hard to gauge where you really stand. Assuming it holds solid above the 54% level, you should check out oddsportal.com and see how many other basketball leagues there are all over the world (a lot). If you can gather good data for some of them, it would seem your method should work there as well. Might as well stick with what's successful rather than move to another sport. Continued success!Comment -
Yeah I second the branching out to other leagues. I'm always checking discrepancies with their lines and am able to get some total middles in and let those play out while I sleep lol. Nice to have the bankroll working for you as often as possible when there's little risk!Comment -
Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET Actual Away Actual Home 6:00 PM AKRON 69 JAMES MADISON 80 149 -5.00 145.5 Home Minus Too Close 0 0 Comment -
Cant believe there is only one game on slate of 100 today... there is one NBA and that system is extremely tight now.
DaveComment -
Torn...
So yesterday there was a slate of 130 games... and my system only picked one. It won... but in all honesty... it was close until the last few minutes. Should I be happy?
Are Vegas lines tightening up over the course of the season where... my picks are less valuable. Are they coming in line with what I my system predicted?
Or should I just shut up and be happy I am winning?
No bets today NCAAB or NBA.
Football has KC by 2 but only 42 points total.
Dave
THE TEACHComment -
Don't chase more wagers, let them come to you. Respect the Oddsmaker. The more in line your predictions are to the Vegas Odds the more accurate your model is.
If you have too many selections, then it is time for inspection. The Oddsmakers do not make a lot of mistakes.
Rule #1: Respect the Oddsmakers
Rule #2: Read Rule #1Comment -
Appreciate you insight... sounds like you are a seasoned bettor... So am I ...but as I have developed... maybe u r right... that I need to respect the Oddsmaker...
Dave
THE TEACHComment -
The only thing I could imagine you doing is having the model spit out projections for every single game and you yourself can compare them to the opening lines and line movement. You don't have to wager if you don't want to, but you may start to notice some discrepancies or trends that may be taken advantage of. For example, in yesterday's Green Bay - Youngstown matchup, maybe your model didn't see value in taking Youngstown to cover 10 points, while the market showed a little lean towards Green Bay to cover, which they ended up winning outright. Maybe your model can be used to identify dogs with value? That would be a perk in spitting out projections for every game and keeping records of the projections + results. I had a +8 unit day yesterday and a lot of it was due to picking 6 dogs ML. Also had 4 pushes which was a pain in the ass but better than losses!Comment -
Prolexus,
maybe we are saying the same thing....
"The more in line your predictions are to the Vegas Odds the more accurate your model is."
At a betting level... I am searching for the inancurracies of Vegas... not whether my system is agreement with them. Maybe we are are saying the same thing.
Dave
THE TEACH
Last edited by usma1992; 02-11-24, 11:38 AM.Comment -
I believe we are saying the same thing. I have NBA, NHL, NFL, CFL, MLB, and Rugby models. I analyze and look for certain parameters/deltas from my line to the Vegas line (Opening Odds) to identify a "play".
Over the years, I have learned to respect the Oddsmakers, they are very good at what they do. If I have too many plays, my model may require adjusting. They will not be that inaccurate on a daily basis.
The "modelling" is actually the easy work. The hard part is the analysis and identifying the selections without too much elimination or too much addition. As well, I find season to season the parameters although close, need to be adjusted.
Be well.Comment -
Jamesrav...
Analogy is remotely fair about hitting black 26 times in a row. I have driven to Foxwood and lost 8 in row using a doubling system. They produced 6 straight reds before I hit the table... They produced 9 straight after that .
But that is not what I am doing... I am producing stats favorites and yes... I will have a bad day... where I hit 30% but my predictions are 75% plus... not 48% on the roultette wheel... U are assuming my chance of winning is a roulette wheel... I find that very funny.
Dave
THE TEACHComment -
Prolexus,
I disagree, the modelling isnt easy. It isn't at least on my side... but filtering bets does create a challenge. It need to work in the past and predict. Not as easy as it seems... actually very difficult.
Curious, why do you follow my predictions... or at least appreciate them.
Dave
THE TEACHComment -
I think... I am doing ok. 48-31... I'll stay my course. Prolexus... I respect your opinion.
Dave
THE TEACHLast edited by usma1992; 02-11-24, 12:18 PM.Comment
