| Time | AWAY TEAM | PROJ AWAY SCORE | HOME TEAM | PROJ HOME SCORE | TOTAL | VEGAS SPREAD | VEGAS O/U | SPREAD BET | O/U BET | ||
| 8:00 PM | UTRGV | 62 | UTAH VALLEY ST | 75 | 137 | -13.5 | 149.0 | Too Close | Under U | ||
| 8:00 PM | SOUTHERN UTAH | 68 | TX-ARLINGTON | 78 | 146 | -9 | 156.0 | Too Close | Under U | ||
| 8:00 PM | E WASHINGTON | 80 | N ARIZONA | 67 | 147 | 7.5 | 158.0 | Too Close | Under U | ||
| 9:00 PM | SACRAMENTO ST | 64 | MONTANA | 80 | 144 | -13 | 130.0 | Too Close | Over U | ||
| 10:00 PM | CAL DAVIS | 69 | CS-NORTHRIDGE | 71 | 140 | -1 | 150.5 | Too Close | Under U |
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Comment -
I was on Bama before you released the pick. My other two losses were Illinois and Dayton. All complete failures of a game. Besides that, I went 9-4 on the day. I don't think there is debate on if this projection is a win or a loss, though, since there are different wagers people could have made. I'm not sure how you're tracking W and L for your models - are you keeping everything separate? Sides, Totals, MLs? Would be interesting to see those percentagesComment -
So Neek... are u saying my projections count as a win even though OT messed it up.
Sunday what side r u on? Bad loss... why... just curious.
I keep every type of bet separate.
DaveComment -
“Bad loss” was poor choice of words ! Unfortunately overtime killed what would’ve been a win ! Thanks for your workComment -
End of the day, still a loss, but how were you supposed to know if the game was going OT? If a games goes to OT it's obvious the original total and spread will become toast most of the time. It CAN happen, but it would be really hard for a team to cover 8 points as a favorite in extra time. Maybe there's a data base out there showing the probabilities of numbers covered in OT. But same with the Under, yeah the model predicted what should have happened points-wise, except both teams had the same amount of points at the end of reg. Hard to predict that and it was just a bad roll of the rice that the only play you posted went to OT.Comment -
NCAAB is getting hard as hell now. Feb basketball is nuts, March will be more nuts. Dogs are playing better than their numbers show combined with favs underperforming. I'll probably be looking at taking home sides only and staying away from wider spreads, or counter the wide spread by live betting. I'm getting killer CLV and it means nothing this past weekComment -
I had a pretty good night. Went 3-2... I had one blowout loss... but I had three solid wins and lost the over by 1 point. Missed FT with 20 seconds left. I will post picks in an hour or so.
68-44 60.7%
DaveLast edited by usma1992; 02-23-24, 11:38 AM.Comment -
No bets tonight... college or pro...Comment -
3-2 ML? Totals? Spread?Comment -
I post my picks daily... as I'm sure you know... you can also go back and look.
Looks like 5 Totals no spreads.
DaveComment -
But what I'm getting at is, as I mentioned before, keeping a running record of all wagers would help differentiate which wins and losses are sides - totals - MLs. Unless you just want everyone on this thread to keep their own running count. ROI is also way different than WL Record. 68-44 with heavy favs is different than 68-44 ATS, or if someone's middling there can be a lot of skewed win loss records but ROI will reflect the success. Maybe make a Pikkit or BetStamp account we can followComment -
Saturday's games...
Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET 2:00 PM BYU 78 KANSAS ST 67 146 1 147.0 Away Minus U Too Close 6:00 PM GEORGETOWN 81 DEPAUL 68 149 4.50 151.0 Away Minus U Too Close 8:00 PM SACRAMENTO ST 68 MONTANA ST 76 144 -7.50 131.0 Too Close Over U 9:00 PM CS-NORTHRIDGE 70 CS-FULLERTON 66 136 -1.00 147.0 Too Close Under U 1:00 PM ALBANY 71 UMASS-LOWELL 77 148 -8.50 163.5 Too Close Under U Comment -
Neek I appreciate the feedback... I will be more transparent... in my follow on posts...
DaveComment -
for the Davis vs. Northridge game - expected to be close (you have a 2 pt differential) - does your model take into account the possibility of a tie in regulation, which would affect the O/U outcome? the chance for a tie seems much higher than if the spread was 10 or something. Or are ties in regulation quite rare and get swamped by the normal outcomes?
(I now see it ended 66 65, so it flirted with the tie situation )Comment -
Thanks for the early Saturday picks.
Ranked road favorites at an unranked home dog have been getting killed lately. Last week they were 1-8. And the week before they were 5-8 I think. Ranked BYU as a favorite at Kansas State makes me pause of course as the home dogs have been unreal lately. Any thoughts on this trend?Comment -
First of all... thank you all for you questions or comments... they make me think and sometimes adjust or at least pay attention specifically on certain games to learn.
JamesRiv... I completely disregard OT regardless of the spread. In college basketball it happens 2% maybe 2.5% of the time. Moreover, how often do I have stated bets on that 2%. I feels more than it is. The other day I had Alabama Florida under... 174... they finished in regulation tied at 85-85. 170... The bet obviously lost in OT... but I record it as a win and only download regulation time scores. Once you start chasing anomalies your done. If OT happens and you win or lose who cares... percentage wise it doesn't happen that often.
RM Logic... my models are straight math driven... which have their positives and negatives. I am not looking at current trends... but obviously the data reflects outcomes etc... You indicated that Ranked vs. Unranked were 1-8 the last week. How many of those games did my system pick? UVA-VTECH no... CREIGHTON--UCONN... no. I think you are more susceptible to variation anomalies if you are playing trends. Stay away stick to basic parameters on what games work... what games don't... ranked unranked who cares...
Then again... you have to decide to bet on BYU or not. I am not a huge fan of the bet... but I am now completely convinced the model will make me a winner and I toss out my person bias. Thats where I sit.
My thoughts
DaveComment -
Do you check odds screens at all throughout the day, or just use what the model shows is the best bet for the day? Just asking since you bring up the UConn - Creighton game. There was some info on the game combined with line movement that made me take Creighton. There were some aspects on KenPom where Creighton was better, and adding that in with a true road game for UConn seemed to work out.Comment -
Nov 18-Jan 2 Filtered and Backtested
Jan 2- Jan 25 Filtered-4.0 PAR ML 15.0 10 OVER -1 9 0.5 UNDER 5.5 6 10 5 -12 11.00 -9 1 4.5 150 8 14 3 -2.6 7 0 4.25 -3 -6 AWAY - 0.7 HOME - -6 -3.0 AWAY+ 10.7 HOME+ -2.75 62.0 61.0 98.39% 81 53 65.43% 30 25 83.33% 17 16 94.12% 40 30 75.00% 36.00 24 66.67% 24 19 79.17% 228.0 167.0 73.25%
-4.0 PAR ML 15.0 10 OVER -1 9 0.5 UNDER 5.5 6 10 5 -12 11.00 -9 1 4.5 150 8 14 3 -2.6 7 0 4.25 -3 -6 AWAY - 0.7 HOME - -6 -3.0 AWAY+ 0.3 HOME+ -2.75 9.0 8.0 88.89% 16 12 75.00% 4 4 100.00% 6 6 100.00% 15 10 66.67% 2.00 1 50.00% 2 2 100.00% 45.0 35.0 77.78%
Not sure whether u can decipher my analysis but I did the best I can. Far right does not include ML bets.
All of the information is current. I worked to create algorithms over the course of the first half of the season. Then since Jan 2... I have run this test. When Jan 25th approximately 2/3rd of the season complete... I decided to remove filters and see what my predicted model would do without filters. Jan 26-Present include filter and non filtered bets.
DaveComment -
Jan 26-Present Filtered and Unfiltered
-4.0 PAR ML 15.0 10 OVER 0 9 0.5 UNDER 5.5 6 10 5 -12 11.00 -9 1 4.5 150 8 14 3 -2.6 7 0 4.25 -3 -6 AWAY - 0.7 HOME - -6 -3.0 AWAY+ 2.0 HOME+ -2.75 8.0 8.0 100.00% 23 14 60.87% 16 13 81.25% 17 11 64.71% 14 8 57.14% 2.00 2 100.00% 3 3 100.00% 75.0 51.0 68.00%
The far right statistic DOESN'T include ML bets. I track them but their payout is extremely low.
Not sure whether u can decipher my analysis but I did the best I can.
All of the information is current. I worked to create algorithms over the course of the first half of the season. Then since Jan 2... I have run this test. When Jan 25th approximately 2/3rd of the season complete... I decided to remove filters and see what my predicted model would do without filters. Jan 26-Present include filter and non filtered bets.
DaveComment -
Added one game...Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET Actual Away Actual Home 2:00 PM TEXAS ST 67 GEORGIA ST 77 144 -5.5 139.0 Too Close Over F 0 0 2:00 PM BYU 78 KANSAS ST 67 146 1 147.0 Away Minus U Too Close 0 0 6:00 PM GEORGETOWN 81 DEPAUL 68 149 4.50 151.0 Away Minus U Too Close 0 0 8:00 PM SACRAMENTO ST 68 MONTANA ST 76 144 -7.50 131.0 Too Close Over U 0 0 9:00 PM CS-NORTHRIDGE 70 CS-FULLERTON 66 136 -1.00 147.0 Too Close Under U 0 0 1:00 PM ALBANY 71 UMASS-LOWELL 77 148 -8.50 163.5 Too Close Under U 0 0
DaveComment -
certainly the tie situation is big in soccer and NHL, I can see why ignoring in basketball might be ok. But if your 2% figure is correct for all NCAA games, that doesn't then focus strictly on games with a 1 or 2 pt (or however high desired) spread. Maybe higher than 2%. In which case it might affect a decision.
When I was helping a guy formulate an NHL model, he had a bunch of 'anomalies' he wanted analyzed (such as if a team lost a home game badly, did they then play exceptionally better the next home game due to pride, etc). Whether anomalies are a distraction, or represent a better view of reality (and therefore a more 'finely tuned' model) is what makes modelling a major challenge. But you 'just' need to beat the Vegas opening line, when they are weakest.Comment -
Ok... let me look into it... so basically throw out Under bets when the spread is within a certain window. Let me do my analysis ... I will let you know if it actually affects the results...
An Under bet may hit overtime more often than not if the spread differential is small.
Thank you for the insight. This is why I post ... in order to hear great opinions. Whether you are right or wrong... I will look into and it worth looking into.
DaveComment -
Gambling Gods... took me down yesterday... Actually showed no mercy... Maybe... by posting my record online... they decided it was time to teach me a lesson of humility. I went 1-5 yesterday and realistically was only in 3 or 4 games. Some games were complete blowouts that I never had a shot at.
As always, I will examine those games and see if I can come up with a better solution that works in the past and the future.
No games tonight... and I apologize if you lost significant money. I take my betting posts seriously and I don't want to let the public down. Either jamesrav or RM Logic or prolexus or someone else said respect the spreads... Apparently, I did not.
All the bets were unfiltered bets... so ultimately I have to decide before the end of the season whether I will include them after 2/3rds of the season is done.
I learn more from losing days... honestly, than winning days.
Two NBA bets are posted. Doing the best I can ... enjoy.
Dave
THE TEACHComment -
The picks werent that bad. Georgetown blew a 13 point lead because their coach is an idiot.
The Montana State game should have easily went over except there were 18 missed foul shots. Make just 2 of those and its a winner.
It should have been a 3-3 day.
I didnt play the BYU game until live in the 1st half and took BYU+8 and still lost.Last edited by RM Logic; 02-25-24, 11:52 AM.Comment -
Your record is awesome. Variance is always going to come into play. 60-62% is pretty much unsustainable. 55-58% is more realistic and what you should strive for. I did lose significant $$ yesterday on these but I pressed the buttons and took the risk. By the way, I have done well with the picks previously.Comment -
I had 3 losses by a half point yesterday and one was also BYUComment -
at this stage, your model has either proven itself and stays steady at this elevated level (a tough task) or will slowly 'revert to the mean' which may or may not be profitable (hopefully the latter). Only time will tell. But tinkering with things isn't going to 'fix' a bad day. It's just probability doing its thing. When I'd lose 6 or 7 hands in a row at Blackjack, playing Basic Strategy (a break-even proposition), did I think Basic Strategy was 'broken'? Certainly not. Watching horse races the past several months for hours a day, I've seen more 30/1 , 40/1 and higher winners than I thought possible. And the Exchange payouts would have been even higher, maybe 60.0 up to 100.0. Weird things happen ; but an underlying 'good' model will always succeed over time. The Blackjack Card Counters are proof of that.Comment -
jamesrav hit the nail on the head. I think I'm glad I went the blackjack route before getting heavy into sports betting because blackjack forces you to put emotion aside and trust the numbers and how things play out in the long run. But that only is true if you have the basic strategy down and know when to deviate. Goes hand in hand with sports betting. If you're a blackjack AP you're not just going to plop down at a 6:5 table and cross your fingers. If you're a sports bettor you're not going to open one sportsbook and pick your hometown team to win just because. Just have to use as many tools available and end of the day, still deal with variance lol. Literally no way around it unless you are fixing games or came from the futureComment -
No bets tonight... my record is exceptional but I will have to wait until the next couple of seasons to see if it is legit. I am extremely happy with the product.
It came a long way this year for sure. Since Jan 2nd it has had a solid run. I opened it up Friday night just a little and it added one bet... Of course, it turned out to be a losing bet. Nonetheless, I will keep treking on.
Of course, NBA put me in my place again. I'm 0-2-1 on my newest trial. Both games lost yesterday.
6 FT missed in the last minute... of Montana St game. 18 overall as RM Logic stated. I confess, I didn't check the 18 number but I am sure he is right. 6 in the last minute.
Common man.
DaveLast edited by usma1992; 02-26-24, 05:30 PM.Comment -
I think I am lying to myself... but I might be close to breakeven or profitable on NBA. I am just trying to map college and pro together at some level. Many have told me to give up on NBA... but I have been told to give up on college before too.
I looked at two specific college games that I wasn't close on Saturday and then back tested. Often when I do that I find out that I mispredicted similar games with similar attributes. Either my system had an obvious weakness or the team match ups did.
I was able to eliminate two losing bets but I still would have lost and been 1-3. 1-5 on Saturday... 69-49... dropped to 58.4% with last Saturday.
My running total... that I quote doesn't include after the system adjustments. It only includes what the system predicted pre game. I think that's only fair.
When I post my overall numbers as a summary... the do take into the fixes and adjustments I have made.
DaveLast edited by usma1992; 02-26-24, 09:31 PM.Comment -
Looks like picks are drying up in college. I have had a good season so I have decided to leave it alone and not bet until it tells me too. I am not opening it up any more. Whatever it is ... it is...
Dave
THE TEACHComment -
Here is what I am considering doing and I am not sure how difficult it will be to accomplish... I think i am going to adjust the totals up and down and see how sensitive everything is and possible issue multiple types of bets. Not sure how easy it will be to do and how easy it will be to post. How many points should I add or subtract? I was thinking at the most two possessions up and down... so either 6 points or 4 points... down and and up.
In addition, I would do the same thing with the spread. Add and subtract from the spread and see how close I am to it becoming a bet, if it is a no bet.
I then can decide whether to buy points and whether it is worth it. It might become really complex... but might be worth it. For instance the most recent overs... I both lost by 2 points or less.... maybe it is worth buying two possessions. I am not sure whether it is or not.
Buying points might become too expensive.
DaveComment -
Games tonight... NBA had huge error that I just detected...
Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET 6:30 PM DETROIT 61 YOUNGSTOWN ST 89 150 -19 152.0 Parlay ML Too Close 8:00 PM RICHMOND 80 SAINT LOUIS 69 149 5 151.5 Away Minus F Too Close 9:00 PM VIRGINIA 72 BOSTON COLLEGE 70 142 0 127.0 Too Close Over U Comment -
Don't bet UVA over... makes zero sense... will add small filter. The 142 projected should steer you away from an Under bet... but you should never bet this game over. Two hours to cancel bet.
DaveComment
