Auburn vs Florida Predictions

**SBR Andy** · 03-31-25, 12:53 PM

Auburn vs Florida early pick from SBR's Rob Paul:

Over 160.5 (-110 Caesars)

"Without knowing how serious Broome's right elbow injury is - he left the game against Michigan State but returned and continued to favor his elbow throughout - it's tough to get a feel for this spread right now. Broome is the second-best player in the country after Wooden Award odds favorite Cooper Flagg, and if he's hindered, Auburn could look like a completely different team.

So with the uncertainty around Broome, I like targeting the Over right now with these being two of the best offenses in the country. Florida is No. 2 and Auburn is No. 3 in adjusted offensive efficiency, per KenPom, and both programs are top 60 nationally in field goal percentage, made 3-pointers per game, and PPG.

Outside of Flagg, Florida's Walter Clayton Jr. has been the best player in the tournament, and Broome isn't far behind (he even hit a 3-pointer immediately upon returning from injury to the Tigers' Elite Eight win over Michigan State). Both players are surrounded by lethal shooters, too.

These are two of the better Over teams in the country - a combined 42-33 - and when they played on Feb. 8, they cruised past the game total (156) while combining for 171 points. Even if Broome is just 75%, I think this will be an offensive explosion."

**SBR Andy** · 04-04-25, 08:20 AM

Auburn vs Florida prediction from SBR's Mike Spector:

Florida -2.5 (-108 FanDuel)

"Auburn went 20-1 in one stretch of the season from early December to the beginning of March, with its only loss in that span being a 90-81 home loss to Florida.

While many undersold the Tigers after losing three times in four games entering the NCAA Tournament, Florida beat Auburn at its peak - and did so without Alijah Martin in the lineup. Florida’s performance in “The Jungle” on Feb. 8 was especially impressive considering it built a 21-point halftime lead and held an offense that was on pace to break the efficiency record in the KenPom era to 1.09 points per possession.

With Auburn’s Wooden Award odds candidate Johni Broome likely not at 100% for this matchup after leaving the Elite Eight win with a shoulder injury, there are too many signs pointing to another Gators win."

Johni Broome Under 19.5 points (-114 Caesars)

"Florida has the size to throw different bodies at Broome, and its frontcourt was instrumental in holding Auburn to 47.9% shooting from 2-point range in the first meeting.

Broome scored 18 points in that matchup on an inefficient 8-for-19 shooting. Most impressively, the Gators defended Broome without fouling, as he attempted just two free throws (he has attempted two or fewer free throws in just three of 14 games since).

It is fair to wonder how much pain Broome will be in or how much mobility he has in his shoulder in this matchup. And Gators head coach Todd Golden’s knowledge of Bruce Pearl’s system as his former assistant gives him an edge in preparing for Broome.

I expect Auburn to have to play more through its guards than it would like, with Broome going under this projected total for the third time in five games."

**SBR Andy** · 04-04-25, 08:21 AM

Auburn vs Florida AI prediction from ChatGPT:

AI score prediction: Auburn 74, Florida 68

- Auburn’s Fast-Paced Transition Game: The Tigers thrive on pushing the pace and scoring in transition, which could be a challenge for Florida’s defense.

- Florida’s Defensive Edge: If the Gators can slow the game down and disrupt Auburn's offensive flow, they can keep it close.

- Turnover Battle: Both teams can generate turnovers. If Florida struggles to protect the ball, Auburn’s defense will capitalize and likely dictate the game.

**spiromoney23** · 04-04-25, 12:33 PM

Me: *ChatGPT, give me a better prediction on this game*

**SBR Andy** · 04-04-25, 02:38 PM

Auburn vs Florida moneyline pick from SBR's Rob Paul:

Auburn ML (+130 bet365)

"The two best teams in the SEC meet for the second time this season with Auburn poised to avenge its Feb. 8 loss to Florida. While the Gators are the favorites to beat the Tigers again, they've had some scares in the NCAA Tournament, needing comebacks against both UConn and Texas Tech.

Both of those teams are top 15 in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency metric and caused issues for a Florida defense that's been up and down this season ... Auburn is No. 3 by that metric. With Johni Broome set to play after hyperextending his elbow against Michigan State, the Tigers have the offensive talent to keep up with Florida while deploying the better defense.

Given Duke's ML odds to beat Houston (-250), and there not being much reason to bet against the Blue Devils, Auburn is the best moneyline value at our March Madness betting sites. I have the Tigers taking this game 77-75."

**spiromoney23** · 04-05-25, 09:47 AM

Auburn by 6 pays like +250...

**SBR Andy** · 04-05-25, 10:17 AM

Auburn vs Florida player prop picks from SBR's Phil Wood:

Chad Baker-Mazara Under 10.5 points (-108 Caesars)

"After a 6-point, 2-of-10 shooting night in the Elite Eight, Baker-Mazara has scored in single-digits in six of his last seven games. He scored 17 points against the Creighton Bluejays, but that feels like an outlier in what has been a rough March.

When the Tigers and Gators met earlier this season, Baker-Mazara scored just 6 points, despite his team scoring 81. He's averaging 12.2 points per game this season, and this should be a high-scoring game, but it's hard to trust him. And with this being the Final Four, if he comes out cold, Bruce Pearl is likely to sit him, as hotter shooters try to help Auburn advance.

This total is set at 11.5 at FanDuel, but the price for the Under is -125. I recommend playing this at Caesars for a lower total but a much better price."

Alex Condon Over 18.5 points + rebounds (-104 FanDuel)

"After the Gators’ win over the Maryland Terrapins, Condon’s health was a serious concern for the Elite Eight. However, he played 28 minutes against the Texas Tech Red Raiders, and while he only scored 7 points, it was a positive to see him on the floor as much as he was.

When the Gators defeated the Tigers earlier this season, Condon scored 17 points and pulled down 10 rebounds. He shot 7-of-10 from the floor in a season-high 33 minutes. Though he won’t play as many minutes Saturday, this is a solid matchup for him.

Condon has scored in single digits in three consecutive games, but in one of those contests, he only played 14 minutes. Condon is averaging 10.8 points and 7.7 rebounds per game this season, so this number is set right at his average. But because he played so well against the Tigers earlier this year, there’s too much value, especially at the current price, in taking his Over."

Walter Clayton Jr. Over 3.5 assists (-125 bet365)

"The price for this prop isn’t very good, but there’s no reason this number should be set as low as it is. Clayton is averaging 4.2 assists per game this season, and he dished out 4 in both the Elite Eight and Sweet 16. He has at least 4 assists in eight of his last 11 games.

Against the Tigers, Clayton dished out a season-high 9 assists. Perhaps oddsmakers expect the Tigers to have a better game plan for Clayton this time around, but getting this number 5.5 assists lower than the amount he registered in early February is too good to pass up.

The price for this Over ranges from -125 to -137. While you could consider taking Clayton’s alt-line of Over 4.5 assists for a better price, just take the sure thing."

**SBR Andy** · 04-05-25, 12:43 PM

Auburn vs Florida SGP picks from SBR's Isaiah Sirios:

Auburn ML +126

"The underdogs in tonight’s Auburn vs. Florida matchup deserve more respect than the market is giving them. While Florida’s tournament run has been impressive, the projections at Bart Torvik make the spread Auburn -1.2, not Florida -2.5.

A dive into the deep stats points to how close this game should be. Since Feb. 1, Auburn sits at fourth in T-Rank, behind third-ranked Florida by less than half a point per 100 possessions.

Auburn’s 20th-ranked defense by opponent 3-point percentage (29.1%) moves the needle for me substantially. Florida ranks 38th in 3-point rate (46.4%) over that sample, and they managed to shoot 13-for-33 (39.4%) versus Auburn in early February.

Don’t expect Florida to get that hot–and stay that hot–again tonight."

Walter Clayton Jr. Under 20.5 points -130

"If the Tigers can limit Florida’s production from beyond the arc, that stands to hurt no player more than Walter Clayton Jr. Florida’s leading scorer is averaging 18.1 points per game this year, so his rate of 22.3 points per game in the tournament is a massive uptick.

Clayton’s increased production has depended upon him going 3.5-for-7.8 (45.2%) from beyond the arc. Those long-range looks account for 65% of his overall shot volume in the tournament. We saw him struggle against a strong perimeter defense in Maryland, scoring just 13 on 2-for-6 from long range over 35 minutes, so he isn’t unbeatable.

Even though Florida bested Auburn by nine in February, Clayton scored only 19 of Florida’s 90 points despite him playing all 40 minutes, and despite him converting 50% of his long-range shots."

Johni Broome Over 19.5 points -114

"If the Auburn Tigers win this game, they’ll need a massive night from superstar transfer Johni Broome. Broome is averaging 18.7 points per game this year. While that average has dipped to 17.3 in the tournament, he averaged 23.5 per game on the second weekend.

When Broome played Florida in the regular season, he notched 18 points in only 30 minutes on the floor. Look for him to stay hot after his dominant second weekend in which he averaged a monstrous 17 field goal attempts per contest."

Best SGP Odds: +409 at FanDuel (Tip: Use the 30% profit boost to move this to +532)