Duke vs Houston Predictions

**SBR Andy** · 03-31-25, 01:07 PM

Duke vs Houston early pick from SBR's Rob Paul:

Duke -4.5 (-108 BetRivers)

"This is the game everyone wanted to see. The best defense in the country (Houston is No. 1 by KenPom) and the best offense in the country (Duke is No. 1 by KenPom) meeting with a trip to the national championship on the line. And regardless of who wins this one, I think the winner will beat Auburn/Florida and be crowned the March Madness champ.

But entering the NCAA Tournament, Duke was the favorite to take the title home, and there's been no reason to second-guess that through the first four rounds of March Madness. The Blue Devils are the most talented team in the country, with Wooden Award odds favorite Cooper Flagg leading the charge.

Even if Houston's ferocious defense can contain Flagg, Jon Scheyer's team just has too much talent. Kon Knueppel and Khaman Maluach are projected lottery picks by the NBA draft odds, Tyrese Proctor is averaging 17 PPG and shooting 64% from three in March Madness, and Sion James might be the most underrated player in the country.

Duke's defense is just so long and athletic, it's hard to imagine Houston putting up enough points to cover. Even with their depth and shooting efficiency, the Cougars don't have the size, nor the one dominant talent to lean on against a nearly perfect Blue Devils roster.

This Duke team is making an argument to go down as the best college basketball team of this century."

**BigDaniil** · 04-02-25, 10:08 AM

Duke or nothing. Houston may not score 60 points

**SBR Andy** · 04-02-25, 01:53 PM

Originally posted by BigDaniil

Duke or nothing. Houston may not score 60 points

Houston team total sitting at 65.5

**Igor_1965** · 04-02-25, 09:41 PM

Originally posted by BigDaniil

Duke or nothing. Houston may not score 60 points

I think Duke can play half court game. It could get very slow so maybe neither team scores 60...

Especially in that football stadium!

**BigDaniil** · 04-03-25, 11:12 AM

Originally posted by SBR Andy

Houston team total sitting at 65.5

Way under!!!!!

**SBR Andy** · 04-04-25, 08:24 AM

Duke vs Houston prediction from SBR's Mike Spector:

Houston +5.5 (-115 BetMGM)

"Duke’s star players, including Cooper Flagg, Khaman Maluach, and Kon Knueppel, are 19 or younger (Flagg should have been a high school senior this year).

So, while Houston might not have as many future NBA lottery picks on its roster, I am siding with its age and experience with a roster full of 22 and 23-year-olds to exert physicality and overcome any talent gap.

The Cougars have the rare blend of being the top defensive (per KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency) and the best 3-point shooting team in the country. And with the Alamodome being just a three-hour drive to Houston’s campus, having the feel of a home game should spur the underdogs.

This is a two-star play, backed by the trend that seven of the previous eight teams to play a Final Four game in their home state won outright."

Cooper Flagg Under 19.5 points (-125 BetMGM)

"Flagg had the third-highest offensive rating of any player in the ACC and is the leading scorer on an offense that was the most efficient in the history of the KenPom database.

However, Flagg scored 18 or fewer points in three of the four NCAA Tournament games and 17 or fewer points in five of six games before hurting his ankle in the ACC tournament.

Now, Flagg figures to draw one of the most challenging defensive assignments in the country, Joseph Tugler, as the top-rated defender in Evan Miyakawa’s DBPR metric.

Add that this game is being played in a cavernous stadium with much poorer sightlines than these players are used to, and I am going Under on his projected points.

There is a significant discrepancy between the O/U of 19.5 points offered at BetMGM and the 17.5-point total at FanDuel, so Under backers are getting a great number at BetMGM despite the uptick in juice."

**SBR Andy** · 04-04-25, 08:25 AM

Duke vs Houston AI prediction from ChatGPT:

AI score prediction: Houston 71, Duke 66

- Houston’s elite defense: The Cougars are one of the best defensive teams in the nation, with the ability to lock down in both the half-court and full-court.

- Duke’s versatility and talent: Duke’s roster is stacked with talent, especially with big men like Flagg, who can dominate inside and stretch the floor.

- Houston’s toughness and experience: Houston is battle-tested and has been a consistent contender in March Madness. Its ability to close tight games gives it an edge in high-pressure tournament situations.

**SBR Andy** · 04-04-25, 02:37 PM

Duke vs Houston player prop from SBR's Rob Paul:

Cooper Flagg Over 7.5 rebounds (-135 BetMGM)

"What makes Duke such an impossible matchup for Houston, beyond just the length of the Blue Devils, is the fact that even if the Cougars sell out to slow Flagg down, the freshman phenom is surrounded by high-end scorers. But I do expect Sampson to take that approach and try to keep the NBA draft odds favorite in check.

But what makes Flagg such a star is that he's as good a defender, passer, and rebounder as he is a scorer, and he'll continue to impact the game regardless of what Houston's defense does. His versatile skill set has been on full display in the NCAA Tournament, too, with him averaging 19.5 PPG, 7.8 RPG, and 5.3 APG.

Flagg's 6-foot-9 frame and over 7-foot long wingspan should help him own the glass against a Houston team that doesn't have much size and ranks outside the top 100 nationally in rebounds per game (36.7). Look for Flagg to go Over 7.5 rebounds for the 17th time this season."

**SBR Andy** · 04-05-25, 10:20 AM

Duke vs Houston player props picks from SBR's Phil Wood:

Kon Knuppel Over 14.5 points (+100 BetMGM)

"After the Cougars held the Tennessee Volunteers to just 50 points in the Elite Eight, it’s easy to understand why some bettors may shy away from Duke Overs. However, we believe the Blue Devils, especially Knueppel, have an advantage on Saturday.

While the Cougars allow just 58.3 points per game, the Gonzaga Bulldogs sped them up in the Round of 32 and scored 76. If the Volunteers were capable of making wide-open 3-pointers in the Elite Eight, the final score of that game would have been much closer.

Knueppel is one of the best 3-point shooters in the nation, knocking down 40.1% of his attempts this season. He’s averaging 14.4 points per game, so he’ll need to go slightly Over his season average to hit this total. That said, he’s scored at least 20 in back-to-back games. This is one of the best plays of the game at even money."

Milos Uzan Over 3.5 assists (-125 bet365)

"The Blue Devils’ defensive performance against the Alabama Crimson Tide was impeccable. They held the highest-scoring team in the nation to just 65 points, so it makes sense that some of Houston’s player props are set lower than usual. However, this is set way too low.

Uzan enters this game averaging 4.4 assists per game. That’s despite the Cougars ranking just 140th in the nation points per game. He’s recorded at least four assists in four of his last six games, and he even managed six in the Sweet 16, despite the Cougars scoring just 62 points.

Additionally, Uzan hasn’t recorded fewer than three assists in a game since March 13, so his floor is very high entering this game. The Under may be tempting because of the price, but the Over is the right play in a higher-scoring game than usual. After all, Uzan had eight assists against Gonzaga."

LJ Cryer Over 2.5 made 3-pointers (-105 BetMGM)

"Duke is great at defending the 3-point line, holding opponents to worse than 31% from beyond the arc this season. Cryer is just 3-of-13 from beyond the arc in his last two games, and he hasn’t shot better than 25% from deep since the Round of 32.

That said, Cryer is still averaging three made 3-pointers per game this season, and in the NCAA Tournament, he’s averaging 3.3 per appearance. The Cougars’ leading scorer went 6-of-11 from deep against Gonzaga, showing off his ability to shoot well and keep his team in games played outside their comfort zone.

Cryer is averaging 7.1 attempted 3-pointers per game this season and is shooting 41.9%. To get this at -105 in the biggest game of the year makes this a must-play, even against a great defense."

**SBR Andy** · 04-05-25, 12:46 PM

Duke vs Houston SGP picks from SBR's Brenden Schaeffer:

Houston +5.5

"If Houston loses on Saturday night by more than five points, it would mark the first time it’s happened all season to the Cougars. With several of our best sports betting sites still featuring this line at Houston +5.5, there’s too much value sitting here to ignore the best defensive team in the country.

While Duke scoring on Houston is inevitable with the Blue Devils’ exceptional offensive efficiency, we’re insisting that Kelvin Sampson’s group will keep its composure and slow Duke down to the extent that these two elite teams won’t find much separation. Houston’s adjusted tempo is the fifth-slowest in the nation.

Although if they want to be competitive here, they probably can’t afford the type of shooting effort they had against Purdue last week, but that was an outlier relative to Houston’s standard production. The Cougars aren’t just a one-trick pony this year, ranking 10th in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency."

Over 136.5

"Although Duke doesn’t demand a particularly fast pace when it plays (269th in adjusted tempo), their outrageously efficient offensive game sees the Blue Devils still rank sixth in the nation in scoring average at 83.7 points per game. Averaging in the mid-70s, Houston obviously prefers a lower scoring pace, but there’s only going to be so much the Cougars can do to prevent Duke from getting its points.

This total is set in a spot that implies 70 points should be enough to win this game. There were only three times when Duke failed to reach 70 points all season. Houston benefits if things turn into a rock fight in the 50s or 60s - but it’s hard to imagine Duke allowing that with a trip to the natty on the line.

Houston’s 81-76 win over Gonzaga is recent proof of concept that the Cougars can compete against elite offensive teams when those teams force the scoring pace a little higher than usual. Although the underdog covering is usually correlated with Under, we like Houston to score enough to help this game clear the 136.5-point total."

Khaman Maluach Over 7.5 rebounds

"If Houston is able to slow the pace, the game may feature limited possessions, which could make rebounding more difficult. But we like one Duke big man to come through with an outlier effort on the boards because of his ability to contribute on the offensive glass.

Maluach has racked up 107 of his 257 rebounds this season on the offensive end. Though he averages only 6.8 rebounds per game, he saw a near season-high 31 minutes in Duke’s last game to earn nine rebounds, his high mark in the NCAA Tournament.

Houston isn’t particularly effective on the defensive glass, ranking 116th in defensive rebounding rate to open up opportunities for the 7’2” freshman to make an impact. Maluach has grabbed eight or more rebounds in 16 games this season."

Best SGP odds: +533 at FanDuel (Tip: Use the 30% profit boost to move this to +693)

**eberetta1** · 04-06-25, 11:53 PM

So sad. Duke players are going to replay this loss to Houston in their heads a thousand times. So much for the team of the century prediction.