Don't fall into this trap

[Razz]

A lot of the donkeys I talk to about gambling, like a lot of these type games:

Syracuse -1 vs. Texas A&M
Marquette -1.5 vs. Alabama
Kentucky -1.5 vs. UAB
Arizona pk vs. Wisconsin

One of the biggest mistakes people make is to take the lower-seeded small favorite. These teams generally receive about 75% of the public action and fail to cover about that same percentage of the times these situations arise. I used to have the numbers on it, and have been looking furiously for it again, but it is sick how often these teams lose.

[imgv94]

I only really like Marquette out of those. I am a donkey? Thanks!!

And thanks for the advice it sounds good.

[Razz]

Haha, I call myself a donkey all the time, but in this case I mean people who follow public perception without spending any actual thought or effort on the game.
I wouldn't call anyone who has A&M a donkey. That is the most anti-donkey game on the board, as far as I'm concerned. It's so anti-donkey I should bet it on sheer principle, but I can't pull the trigger for some reason.

[imgv94]

Razz please put something on the game. even a 1/4 unit or something.
I myself am quite shocked that you aren't all over A&M in here. I keep
feeling like your going to bet it sooner or later.

[Razz]

I'm sure I will - I just keep thinking the line is going to move to Syr -2 or something.

[Winston Smith]

I'm sure I will - I just keep thinking the line is going to move to Syr -2 or something.

Nah, they don't want Syracuse to look any less inviting.

[Razz]

I think they could have opened Syracuse -4 and 85% of the public would have been on Syracuse.

[isetcap]

I think they could have opened Syracuse -4 and 85% of the public would have been on Syracuse.

Yep. I don't like any of the favorites in these matchups and when I say I don't like them, I mean I would rather spend a year of my life as a studio audience member for the Oprah show than put money on these "favs".

[imgv94]

Marquette is strong. Close games with Villanova and good Big East conf.
Be careful.