Newbie question about line movements

[bullgodit]

Hello, I'm a relatively new sports bettor but I've been reading these forums and doing some research for quite some time. I'm very excited to be a part of this community and look forward to any feedback I may receive....especially the negative!!

So I've been reading a little about public consensus and how it relates to line movement....it's got me a little confused.

Example: The line for Sunday's NFL NO-ATL game opened up at ATL -2 but seems to have quickly moved to ATL +3....yet I've seen that over 60% of the point spread bets are still on NO. Is that typical for NFL games or would that possibly be a fluke? Personally, I would have happily bet NO+2, but now I'm much more inclined to go the other way. Why isn't the rest of the public?

Thanks in advance!

[Bill Dozer]

Welcome Bullgodit!

If N Orleans had most of the action in theory that would drive the line up. So this lines up with what you are saying that NO was bet heavy and the bookmakers made them less attractive to load up on. Some BMs want even action and keep the vig. If the public likes a team the team will get more expensive until they approach the point where big dog bettors will counter.

This game is a little unique because the line was out for so long. If the line opened a week before like it does for the rest of the season you would have seen 2.5/3 the whole time. Having the line up this long allows for big swings for things like injuries and decisions on who will start.

Add in that teams are unknown because this is their first game and lines are volatile. You'll see huge swings in beginning of NBA season too, especially on totals.

09/06 02:14 am	-3 -106	+3 -104
09/04 05:22 pm	-3 -103	+3 -107
09/04 03:39 pm	-3 +101	+3 -111
09/04 01:14 pm	-3 +102	+3 -113
09/04 01:07 pm	-3 +103	+3 -114
09/04 01:07 pm	-3 +104	+3 -115
09/04 01:07 pm	-3 +106	+3 -117
09/04 12:56 pm	-3 +100	+3 -110
09/04 12:56 pm	-3 +102	+3 -113
09/02 11:59 am	-3 +103	+3 -114
09/01 11:09 am	-3 +100	+3 -110
09/01 09:30 am	-2½ -123	+2½ +111
09/01 04:25 am	-2½ -121	+2½ +110
08/29 10:18 pm	-2½ -117	+2½ +106
08/28 10:54 am	-2½ -113	+2½ +102
08/27 08:05 pm	-2½ -111	+2½ +101
08/27 12:51 pm	-2½ -116	+2½ +105
08/26 06:30 pm	-2½ -111	+2½ +101
08/25 07:22 am	-2½ -107	+2½ -103
08/24 07:26 pm	-2 -111	+2 +101
08/23 08:40 pm	-1½ -113	+1½ +102
08/23 12:48 pm	-1½ -111	+1½ +101
08/17 02:17 pm	-1½ -105	+1½ -105
08/17 02:16 pm	+1½ -127	-1½ +115
08/17 11:39 am	+1½ -133	-1½ +120
08/14 11:45 pm	+1½ -125	-1½ +113
08/11 01:56 pm	+1½ -120	-1½ +109
08/02 08:19 pm	+1½ -113	-1½ +102
08/02 08:15 pm	+1½ -111	-1½ +101
05/13 04:16 pm	+1½ -105	-1½ -105

[bullgodit]

Ah, that makes sense. I didn't think about the line being available since May.

Thanks for the reply and the information.