How Pinnacle's and the Asian bookmakers' odds are formed

[TheCatMadeIt]

Hi,

New to the forum and tried searching for this topic since it's a very basic question but couldn't find anything so here goes. How do the sharp bookies adjust their odds? Is it as simple as aiming for a balanced book, so e.g. a moneyline in basketball at 1.2-5.2 would mean there's been 4.33 times more wagered on the favourite outcome (5.2/1.33)? If this is true, wouldn't a favourite-longshot bias exist even at the sharp books since most of the money is wagered on the favourite and there's no reason to think the smart money is on the underdog?

If this is NOT how the odds change then how?

Edit: So I'm not interested in how odds are formed initially but how they change depending on how much is bet on each side.

[BetterBizness]

Trained monkeys obv

[bithko]

Trained monkeys obv

For sure!

[ico2525]

Sharp books know their customers. If a super whale who is down 300k this year so far in NBA betting wants to bet $20k on a team, the line may barely flinch at Pinnacle. If a known Billy Walters beard bets $20k on the same side, the line may move half a point. Yes, the goal is a balanced book, but there are other intricacies of course.

[Bill Dozer]

Hi,

New to the forum and tried searching for this topic since it's a very basic question but couldn't find anything so here goes. How do the sharp bookies adjust their odds? Is it as simple as aiming for a balanced book, so e.g. a moneyline in basketball at 1.2-5.2 would mean there's been 4.33 times more wagered on the favourite outcome (5.2/1.33)? If this is true, wouldn't a favourite-longshot bias exist even at the sharp books since most of the money is wagered on the favourite and there's no reason to think the smart money is on the underdog?

If this is NOT how the odds change then how?

Edit: So I'm not interested in how odds are formed initially but how they change depending on how much is bet on each side.

Hi TCMI
Welcome to SBR!

The higher limit sportsbooks and sharp players keep the market from getting manipulating the way I think you are talking about. For example, Bodog and maybe a Sportsinteraction have moslty gamblers who are not trading based on the line. They simply want to bet their team, often the heavy favorite. If these were the only two sportsbooks in the world, demand for these big market favorites would mean the price would be inflated not reflecting their actual chance of winning. But in markets at bookmakers like Pinnacle and CRIS, where 10 smaller players may bet $200 on the Warriors, another player may bet $30,000 on the Cavs when his math suggests it is advantageous to make that play. This creates a true market and keeps the smaller books from straying too far to the point advantage-players will come in to bet the underdogs. The end result is the true odds of winning are somewhere in between, and even if it is a bit lopsided, its not bad enough to where its not covered by the book's vig.

Even money for both teams is usually never the objective unless it is a super sharp line like the Super Bowl where the market actually reflects the odds of both teams winning at any given moment from opening line to start time. There is no room for the books to shade that price unless they have inside information on an injury or something. In the old days when you would have a newer book hanging -8/+8 on Super Bowl when everywhere else had 6.5 you might get scared thinking the book is itself betting on the favorite. If the underdog covered the +8 the book would get buried and maybe even close... sam as a player who went all in with his bookie and skipped town.

[3runhomer]

Great info Bill. Very informative.

[Bill Dozer]

YW. Great questions.

[semibluff]

I worked in the Sportsbook department for 1 of the better betting companies listed on this site, but that was 31 years ago and things were very different in those days. At that time price changes were mostly made by whoever was in overall charge of the room that day. If it was a horse racing or soccer matter it would be handled by the individual person responsible for those 2 sports but for everything else 'the boss' was in charge. There weren't a large number of specialist advisors. Books on other sports were sometimes a collaborative effort. Sometimes other companies books were copied. Sometimes someone with a particular interest or knowledge would take the lead, but mostly it was a case of copying similar books from recent events with an adjustment for form. This was most common for sports such as golf.

Very large bets were rare and almost always resulted in price changes. Even today I suspect someone betting $10K on a golfer would raise eyebrows. Even $2K would probably cause someone to check competitor's books to make sure the price was up to date. Small bets rarely changed prices, even when 'the people in charge' knew weight of money on 1 side of a book was becoming lopsided.

[jjgold]

Most of pinnacles line changes are auto generated off bets