SEEKING HELP: newbie with ok start but definitely need good advice from Sharps

**Baraldsson** · 06-20-19, 02:41 PM

Originally posted by goalinmind

I just started recently and I guess I had some good luck with some results. I'm not sure if I can develop this into something more or is it just a fluke, so I'm seeking constructive advice on how I can improve.

I'm a regular sports fan and so far have not relied upon any deep analysis before my picks, I just go with who I feel should win given what I think are the circumstances in that particular case. If I don't feel comfortable, I don't bet on that game. I also try to keep it simple and am betting just on outcome as other things are too complicated for me atm.

Anyway, please see my basic chart with my microbets and tell me what else I need to consider before making bets. Ideally, the goal is to start making bigger bets if I can somehow keep this going. If you have any questions, ask away! Thank you, Sharps!

(Not sure why my screencap is cut off but you can open it in a new window to see the missing info, which is 19/26 73% correct bets.)

Excellent start, brother.

Keep posting, you could be on to something by the look of it.

**Believe_EMT** · 06-20-19, 04:26 PM

welcome aboard goal!

if any Sharps show up on SBR i'll let you know. caution: cliches to follow

but if you want to evaluate if you have been 'lucky', as you say. take those bets you've placed and compare them to the closing line. If the number you bet is better 60%-70% of the time you're doing something right. if that number is only 35% or worse, quit while you are ahead.

the closer you are betting to game time the harder it will be to win. do you own a house? same concept here. here in pittsburgh market heats up in april or may, dies down around september. if you aren't buying in the spring you're picking through leftovers every other market participant felt had little to no value.

bet with your head, not over it. strong BR management is key because, unlike you and i the book has a near infinite bankroll. don't you dare let me see you go over 2% of your BR on a play.

i like your approach.

GL

**semibluff** · 06-20-19, 08:02 PM

The simplest advice I can give you is to understand risk vs reward. For example if you think a selection has a 50% you have to be getting better than +100 for it to be a good betting risk. If you bet at exactly +100 then you should break even long-term. If you bet a 50% chance at -101 or worse then long-term you're going to lose money. This is assuming your analysis is 100% accurate, and it won't be. With that in mind my 2nd piece of advice is to check your odds analysis so you know what price you have to beat to make it worth your while. It's good practice to list every outcome, what chance you think each outcome has, then even that out to exactly 100%. My 3rd piece of advice is to be cold-blooded about analysis. If you think Team A has a 60-40 chance to beat Team B but the odds are -180; +160 then don't beat Team A. You need better than -150 for it to be value. Here Team B has value based on that analysis. Either bet Team B for value or don't bet. Understand that if you support Team A and you bet them at that price you're doing so for entertainment purposes and it will cost you money long-term. It's ok as a hobby but never kid yourself it was a smart decision.

That is advice which can be take or leave as you please. There is only golden rule in betting and that is don't bet money you can't afford to lose. Never break that rule!

**goalinmind** · 06-21-19, 10:47 PM

Thanks, guys, for all your comments. Funny thing as soon as I put this up, I lost some $5 bets on baseball lol. Will keep at it.

Originally posted by Believe_EMT

but if you want to evaluate if you have been 'lucky', as you say. take those bets you've placed and compare them to the closing line. If the number you bet is better 60%-70% of the time you're doing something right. if that number is only 35% or worse, quit while you are ahead.

Could you please provide an example?

@semibluff
I'd love to know how I can determine when I think a team will win 60% of the time. I mean, I'm just going by my feel and basic analysis but not sure how to quantify it.

I'm using on bet site and they have this feature called 'cash out' where you can settle the bet mid-way through a game: do you guys ever use it? How about combining your bets for a higher outcome?

Much appreciated and I'm sure you guys are being modest, must be some Sharps in here.

**Believe_EMT** · 06-22-19, 08:34 AM

real life examples, sample of my plays from wednesday, where i bet, the closing number and the result

sd 105 (+108) W
atl 147 (143) W
laa 148 (188) W

someone going 3-0 might think it's a good start and i might be talented at this. in reality, 2 of those 3 games moved against me. the market clearly sending signals to me that those were bad bets on my part. small bit of luck in me winning all 3 of those.

market is efficient. if that sd game were played an infinite number of times, the market agrees that a fair price for sd is +108 (blended line). this equates to an expected win rate of ~48% (not exact, and not based on zero vig line). however, the price i paid requires a win rate of 51% for me to even be close to break even.

for simplicity sake, let's say they played 100 times and the results followed the math suggested by an efficient closing number, 1 unit, bet to risk on fave, bet to win on dog:

sd wins 48, losses 52

at 105 -6.29 Units ((1/1.05)*48)-52

at +108 -.16 Units (1.08*48)-52

so while i won that bet, if i continue to make poor bets, i will lose a lot of money.

tried to keep that as straightforward as i could, hope it helped.

think about it like this. would you rather follow 1 guy's opinion or the collective opinions of thousands of people that pay a severe penalty when they are wrong (they lose money)?

**semibluff** · 06-22-19, 04:05 PM

Originally posted by goalinmind

@semibluff
I'd love to know how I can determine when I think a team will win 60% of the time. I mean, I'm just going by my feel and basic analysis but not sure how to quantify it.

I can't tell you how to analyse a betting situation and be accurate. If it was possible everyone would agree on the same number. The point is you do your analysis and come up with a number/percentage probability that you think is accurate. If you're right then betting bigger odds should be financially beneficial in the long-term. If you bet at smaller odds than you believe to be accurate then you should lose money. For Excel purposes the break-even odds-to-1 you need are =SUM((100 - A1) / A1) , where A1 is the Excel square you've posted your percentage. For 40% the odds are 1.5 to 1, which equates to 2.5 in decimal or +150 in US odds. I can't tell you how to arrive at 40%, but if you don't arrive at a number then how are you going to tell if you're betting at a good price?

People tend to overestimate the chances of an outcome they like and then just go with that number. They also tend to overestimate the chances of outcomes they don't like. If they added all the percentages together they would likely come up with a number bigger than 100%. If you do that and end up with 112% then you should adjust all your outcomes by 100/112 or whatever the total % number is.

**TommieGunshot** · 06-22-19, 06:15 PM

Originally posted by semibluff

People tend to overestimate the chances of an outcome they like and then just go with that number. They also tend to overestimate the chances of outcomes they don't like. If they added all the percentages together they would likely come up with a number bigger than 100%. If you do that and end up with 112% then you should adjust all your outcomes by 100/112 or whatever the total % number is.

Never heard of this inconsistency . Any examples of it happening?

**goalinmind** · 06-22-19, 06:22 PM

Thanks for the number crunching, guys. To answer @believe_emt, I'd definitely follow Sharps

Here's a bet I'm making tonight, just another $5 on Nationals beating Braves with the odds being 1.8 but now it's 1.9 just before game start, so I guess I'm not looking good right now? Silly question, how often does the odds match the results?

Finding out I'm not so flukey good at baseball, will need to try harder.

Much appreciated for the advice. Will update later.

**semibluff** · 06-22-19, 06:43 PM

Originally posted by TommieGunshot

Never heard of this inconsistency . Any examples of it happening?

2 factors here. 1) People aren't likely to overestimate total percentages on a 2 outcome event but they are likely to do so on a multiple outcome event such as a golf event or a Super Bowl futures list. 2) People rarely post their full list so proven examples are rare. Normally the closest examples you'll find are 'experts' opinions on NFL Over/Under lists. With 256 games by definition you must have the same number of winners as losers. Check lists and you find 260+ combined wins on some of them. Check most Sportsbook odds list and the combined win total will be over 260 with shorter average odds on the Overs than on the Unders. This is because books know gamblers will tend to bet the Over on their team rather than bet the Under on another team.

**oilcountry99** · 06-24-19, 11:29 AM

goalinmind......This is hard. Don't kid yourself.

**TommieGunshot** · 06-24-19, 03:11 PM

Originally posted by goalinmind

Here's a bet I'm making tonight, just another $5 on Nationals beating Braves with the odds being 1.8 but now it's 1.9 just before game start, so I guess I'm not looking good right now? Silly question, how often does the odds match the results?

In a perfectly efficient market, the odds the bookmakers offer are the probabilities. So with the Nationals at 1.8 and the Braves at 2.15, the results should be Nationals winning between 54.5 and 56.5% of the time. Whenever you have a reason to believe the actual probabilities are different, make a bet. Repeat until rich.

**peacebyinches** · 06-25-19, 01:00 PM

Originally posted by semibluff

2 factors here. 1) People aren't likely to overestimate total percentages on a 2 outcome event but they are likely to do so on a multiple outcome event such as a golf event or a Super Bowl futures list. 2) People rarely post their full list so proven examples are rare. Normally the closest examples you'll find are 'experts' opinions on NFL Over/Under lists. With 256 games by definition you must have the same number of winners as losers. Check lists and you find 260+ combined wins on some of them. Check most Sportsbook odds list and the combined win total will be over 260 with shorter average odds on the Overs than on the Unders. This is because books know gamblers will tend to bet the Over on their team rather than bet the Under on another team.

Yes yes yes! This is a perfect example, I was going to bring this same thing up. One very qualitative example of this happening is back when Mike and Mike was a radio show, they would always give their predicted W-L for each team before the NFL season, and alwayyyssss struggle to come up with records that would give the full league the required .500 win %. It makes sense for people (such as 'expert analysts'...) that are immersed in the day-to-day aspects of a sport where they follow all the transactions, coaching changes, player maturation etc... to think that most teams, except the obvious bottom of the barrel 'rebuilding' teams, will get better, and have a more or equal amount of wins the upcoming season compared to the last season. People will anchor their predictions around the previous season's outcome and over emphasize potential 'improvements' made in the offseason.

**gojetsgomoxies** · 06-26-19, 03:25 PM

looks like you bet about 450. so that's a really good result.

i see that almost all your bets are on toronto in hockey or basketball..... do you live in toronto?

people talk about winners/losers and sharp/square all the time.. but i will tell you this: you have a much better chance of doing well betting something that you know very well. and that goes for quantitatively knowing it, knowing it fundamentally but especially knowing it locally. i.e. i think an ardent should have a much better chance betting pac 12 football in los angeles than betting SEC football.

**goalinmind** · 06-26-19, 06:56 PM

Originally posted by gojetsgomoxies

looks like you bet about 450. so that's a really good result.

i see that almost all your bets are on toronto in hockey or basketball..... do you live in toronto?

people talk about winners/losers and sharp/square all the time.. but i will tell you this: you have a much better chance of doing well betting something that you know very well. and that goes for quantitatively knowing it, knowing it fundamentally but especially knowing it locally. i.e. i think an ardent should have a much better chance betting pac 12 football in los angeles than betting SEC football.

Thanks! Yes, I'm from Toronto. I calculated I had a 60% success rate betting on the Leafs, a crazy 90% on the Raptors (my only loss was game 5 by 1 pt! where the coach basically threw the game away with that stupid timeout), but so far a joke of 33% on baseball since I'm betting on other teams, so appreciate your advice and have to re-focus on just a few teams. The Jays are sucking so hard though, so subconsciously that's why I wasn't betting much on them haha. Will regroup.

**gojetsgomoxies** · 06-27-19, 04:02 PM

Originally posted by goalinmind

Thanks! Yes, I'm from Toronto. I calculated I had a 60% success rate betting on the Leafs, a crazy 90% on the Raptors (my only loss was game 5 by 1 pt! where the coach basically threw the game away with that stupid timeout), but so far a joke of 33% on baseball since I'm betting on other teams, so appreciate your advice and have to re-focus on just a few teams. The Jays are sucking so hard though, so subconsciously that's why I wasn't betting much on them haha. Will regroup.

Jays have been coming on a bit here.

yeah, local familiarity is really good in terms of betting as long as you can look at it objectively

**thebaibol** · 07-19-19, 05:52 AM

wow nice