I am wondering what some people may look at as solid futures bets for NFL. I was looking today and in my mind (biased as it may be as a Bears fan) the Bears at 20-1 to win the Super Bowl are a good bet. With the best defense in the league returning, one of the better special teams, and what should be a moderately improved offense 20-1 seems like a good bet to me. Any other opinions?
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superbowl is a long ways away
i thought the dolts would win but manning choked bigger than life along with the offensive line
i'm a bears fan to
rex hasn't shown he can lead a team anyway except maybe to the hospital
griese will probably take over the team
i hate tying up money that long unless it's a small bet for fun
bears are definitely on the short list i guess with carolina, indy, seattle, and cincyComment -
Howdy:>
I am a Packer fan, so it's important to preface my response. However...
20 to 1 on the Bears winning seems like it is HUGELY underpriced for you... Here is why.
Now, I don't have elaborate stats, but the Bears - as a franchise - generally have an 'off' year following a good one. They did do that 2x in each of the past decades. I know that's a reach, but it's true (that 13-3 Jauron team being the one before this one - you know, the one where Mike Brown scored a touchdown EVERY game in the 4th off a pick or something heh... They were a blast to watch that year, but they are an example of high expectations that led to bust the following year).
Secondly... I agree, their Defense is bloody brilliant, probably the best talent-wise in the NFL... Not to mention top half of the league special teams. However, I see 3 HUGE problems.
#1 - Grossman stinks. He is better than Orton, obviously, but he's still Grossman. He had 1 huge nationally televised game and everyone thinks the Bears are world beaters. You still HAVE to score and run the ball consistently to win, which the Bears have consistently shown that they cannot do that against a reasonably good opponent... Which leads me to #2
#2 - The Bear players are REALLY down on Cedric Benson being basically given starter status. Thomas Jones was nasty last season, but pick status + money decides he will likely not get as many touches. To me, that's just stupid. Jones is a proven 'mediocre' at worst featured back with a line as good as the Bears. They DO have a solid o-line (they have the best Center in the league right now hands down), but if they aren't happy with who they are blocking for, you won't see as much motivation to work hard. I think there is more than smoke with this issue. The veteran/high draft pick debate is extremely volitile for players that havn't 'earned' their spot yet. Right there, that would scare me.
#3 - The QB position in general, should Brian Griese (IMO their best starter - which is scary to say) start. Griese has NEVER won a big game in the NFL. It started with him saying "this is a defining game for me" against oakland, when he was at Denver - then went out and threw about 10 picks and ran the Broncos out of that game early. Granted, Oakland was up that year, Denver was VERY competitive and their season generally goes as how they do against Oakland. Also, he has proven to get teams to the fringe, but not over the hump, in his career. I think he's done more than he should've, because I think he stinks - but when you step back and look at things, for a stinky QB, his career is pretty damn solid overall, if not above average.... Superbowl average? Not a chance. The Bears have playmakers on O, but with a stinky QB, that's an issue. Muhammed has top 3 hands in the league (and top 10 talent, maybe 5) and Berrian is a mega-prospect down the field (he really is a game breaker if he's healthy and doesn't drop/lose the ball), but that means nothing if they can't get the ball in space.
I wouldn't take them LESS than probably 30 to 1, which might even be too light for me - I really believe they are a very big dog to go deep this year. They won't even get out of the NFC with their offense, with all due respect.
I know prop bets are generally shorter odds and all, but I think you get your money in on teams with a D, a reasonable running game, and a reasonable QB.
2 out of 3 IMO isn't enough to take the chance. I think the Bear's QB situation is dreadful. It's not because I think my team HAS to beat them. I just believe, in trying to help a fellow bettor, that they have little to no chance to go anywhere without a QB... Their situation, IMO, is in the bottom half in the NFL at that position right now - maybe even as low as the bottom 3rd. They are good enough to win the division or challenge for the playoffs, but I don't see them getting to the championship game. They have no QB to help get them their. They have MORE than everything else.
Heck, if you took the Pack's strength's/weaknesses and matched them with the Bears?
Now that team would win the superbowl:>Comment -
Miami Dolphins are the best team in football.Comment -
tooting my own horn
Originally posted by Dbldown11
I'm not one to normally toot my own horn, but now im only one game away from a very nice little payout. Even more excitement for this game for me.Comment -
Dbldown11,
Good stuff. Is the bet big enough where a Colts Moneyline hedge might be a nice option?Comment -
Colts +1159 for me....edge would have to go to Colts
and who is this idiot who said Miami is the best team in football?Comment -
I'd wait one more game to toot it.Originally posted by Dbldown11
But good luck!Comment
