FIRST TD PLAYS for Today

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  • ddittie
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 09-15-12
    • 819

    #1
    FIRST TD PLAYS for Today
    So,

    whoever isn't paying attention, Kyren Williams has scored the Rams first td (first td scored in game by the Rams themselves, not the first td of the game) in a whopping 13 out of 18 games.

    I doubt any other player has scored more times first for their team than that.

    In the other game, Baltimore's Henry has scored the first TD for his team 6 times out of 18 games. Andrews has scored the first TD for the Ravens 3 times. Again, this is the first td for their team, not the game itself.
    Andrews has scored the first OFFENSIVE TD for the Ravens in 4 games (1 of the games the defense returned a TD before the offense scored a TD).

    This tells me that Williams anytime TD +105 is probably the best value on the board to me.
    If you assume the Rams have a 50% chance of scoring first TD, based on the coin flip of whoever gets the first possession, and then take the odds from past events of him being the first TD scorer for his team 72% of the time, Williams has a 36% likelihood of being the first TD scorer in the game. +700 odds currently at Draftkings looks pretty sweet to me.

    Personally however, I'm banking on the following bets:

    Kyren Williams anytime TD +105
    Kyren Williams First TD Scorer +700

    Kyren Williams First TD Scorer +700 + Derrick Henry First TD Scorer +475 (+4500)
    Kyren Williams First TD Scorer +700 + Mark Andrews First TD Scorer +1100 (+9500)

    GL today!
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