NFL Best Bet Thread - Week 01

[ChuckyTheGoat]

This is in response to Agendaman's note in Players Talk. No official contest. Just more casual.

If there's interest, I would accumulate the results. Just for pride. Good Luck.

1) Post only ONE game per week. Sides ONLY. This will be deemed your Best Bet.
2) Quote a current price. It has be close to the market average.
3) I prefer that it's quoted in Decimal Line. That's the easiest for record-keeping. If no price attached, I'll assume -110 (1.91).
4) Post a few sentences on your RATIONALE for liking this side. Readers can get value from your insight. Of course, the RATIONALE is optional.
5) Please post at least 60 minutes before Kickoff. That way readers absorb your comments.

Thanks, and Good Luck.

[jackpot269]

Sounds great Chucky, I'm in ,Let's have a great football season.

[jackpot269]

Void

[Optional]

Vikings -6 1.90

Dart landed there.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Vikings -6 1.90

Dart landed there.

OK, thanks for contributing, Opti. Good Luck.

[jackpot269]

KC -6.5
The odds on fav to win it all again. Best QB and TE in the league. Big coaching advantage

[ChuckyTheGoat]

KC -6.5
The odds on fav to win it all again. Best QB and TE in the league. Big coaching advantage

The radio-hacks like the Lions. Tells me you're on the right side. Good Luck.

[jackpot269]

The radio-hacks like the Lions. Tells me you're on the right side. Good Luck.

I hope so I've already put 1x on it and thinking about another 2x.

Oh, I'm sorry Chucky it's -110 forgot to post it.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I hope so I've already put 1x on it and thinking about another 2x.

Oh, I'm sorry Chucky it's -110 forgot to post it.

No problem, Jack. # has moved with Kelce in doubt.

Remember, there are so many Fantasy FB players crossing over to Sports-Betting. I thought Kelce was ready to lose a step. Don't think he's worth 2 pts.

Good Luck on the play. Go, Chiefs.

[jackpot269]

No problem, Jack. # has moved with Kelce in doubt.

Remember, there are so many Fantasy FB players crossing over to Sports-Betting. I thought Kelce was ready to lose a step. Don't think he's worth 2 pts.

Good Luck on the play. Go, Chiefs.

No not 2 points but he is a Factor

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Playing: 464 NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -3 (1.88). 100 to win 88.

Playing against a few biases:
*Tenn has been a playoff team in the recent past. Vrabel has some history of ATS success as a Dog.

My anti-TENN sentiment stems from Derrick Henry's status. His 2022 YPR was down about 1.00 from his peak year.

Henry led the league in carries in three of the L4 years. He's now 29, and I think he's staring at a cliff for his production. To his credit, he recorded 100+ yards in each of his L4 games last year.

Even with Henry's production, TENN struggled to score points. I'm not sure they have many answers on offense.

As for the Saints, Derek Carr comes in as the new QB. I don't think Carr is well-liked, maybe because of his bible-thumping. Truth is that he's been very productive.

His completion % was down four points last year from his career average (64%). I think Carr can seamlessly change settings and be productive on Day One. Dog bettors may think the Titans catch a piece of the +3, but I'm laying it with the Saints.

[khicks26]

TB +6 -110 at BETMGM

Info complements of Walter Football.


I love the matchup the Buccaneer receivers have with Minnesota’s dreadful secondary. I also think Tampa’s weak offensive line won’t be exposed by the Vikings, who have diminished their pass rush this offseason. A six-point underdog shouldn’t have such advantages over such a big favorite. A big favorite that has a matchup against the Eagles next Thursday, by the way.

The back door will be open for the Buccaneers, should they need it. We’re getting five of the six key numbers with them on this inflated line, after all. Given that there’s a good possibility of an upset occurring, Tampa Bay is one of my top picks of the week.


Week 1 NFL Pick: Buccaneers 23, Vikings 20
Buccaneers +6 (5 Units)
Under 45 (0 Units)


If you want to read the whole right up its here. I'm just one of those dumb fantasy guys.

NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 1, 2023 – WalterFootball

[khicks26]

KC -6.5
The odds on fav to win it all again. Best QB and TE in the league. Big coaching advantage

Not sure about this one bud. No Kelcie and Jones KC's best defensive player not playing. GL

[ChuckyTheGoat]

TB +6 -110 at BETMGM

Info complements of Walter Football.


I love the matchup the Buccaneer receivers have with Minnesota’s dreadful secondary. I also think Tampa’s weak offensive line won’t be exposed by the Vikings, who have diminished their pass rush this offseason. A six-point underdog shouldn’t have such advantages over such a big favorite. A big favorite that has a matchup against the Eagles next Thursday, by the way.

The back door will be open for the Buccaneers, should they need it. We’re getting five of the six key numbers with them on this inflated line, after all. Given that there’s a good possibility of an upset occurring, Tampa Bay is one of my top picks of the week.


Week 1 NFL Pick: Buccaneers 23, Vikings 20
Buccaneers +6 (5 Units)
Under 45 (0 Units)


If you want to read the whole right up its here. I'm just one of those dumb fantasy guys.

NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 1, 2023 – WalterFootball

Thank you, Khicks. That's a great post.

I've mentioned the Bucs for hidden-value. The 2022 QB was a dinosaur pulling a check. Guy practiced when he wanted so that he could work thru his divorce proceedings.

2022 Vikings have been referenced as one of the luckiest teams ever. They won all the close games, and the markets didn't believe in them.

Good Luck!

[jackpot269]

Not sure about this one bud. No Kelcie and Jones KC's best defensive player not playing. GL

May have pulled the trigger too early on it! Definitely got a bad #

[khicks26]

Thank you, Khicks. That's a great post.

I've mentioned the Bucs for hidden-value. The 2022 QB was a dinosaur pulling a check. Guy practiced when he wanted so that he could work thru his divorce proceedings.

2022 Vikings have been referenced as one of the luckiest teams ever. They won all the close games, and the markets didn't believe in them.

Good Luck!

Baker is not a good QB, but he is a gamer with a good deep ball. I think the Buc's keep it close. As you said last years Vikings were a mirage.

[khicks26]

May have pulled the trigger too early on it! Definitely got a bad #

Yea that sucks. As a Lions fan, I can tell you they are not good on the road or outside. But many are saying this is not the same old Lions. We will see.

[mjsuax13]

Thank you for setting up Chucky.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

TB +6 -110 at BETMGM

Info complements of Walter Football.


I love the matchup the Buccaneer receivers have with Minnesota’s dreadful secondary. I also think Tampa’s weak offensive line won’t be exposed by the Vikings, who have diminished their pass rush this offseason. A six-point underdog shouldn’t have such advantages over such a big favorite. A big favorite that has a matchup against the Eagles next Thursday, by the way.

The back door will be open for the Buccaneers, should they need it. We’re getting five of the six key numbers with them on this inflated line, after all. Given that there’s a good possibility of an upset occurring, Tampa Bay is one of my top picks of the week.


Week 1 NFL Pick: Buccaneers 23, Vikings 20
Buccaneers +6 (5 Units)
Under 45 (0 Units)


If you want to read the whole right up its here. I'm just one of those dumb fantasy guys.

NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 1, 2023 – WalterFootball

Props to Khicks for this post:

1) He wins with Bucs +6.
2) Bucs were a great BTCL value play. Moved 2 pts from post to close (+4). Somebody liked em.
3) And the logic was very good. The Viking weaknesses came to fruition.

And thanks for the link. Walter looks like an honest guy who does solid work.

[khicks26]

Props to Khicks for this post:

1) He wins with Bucs +6.
2) Bucs were a great BTCL value play. Moved 2 pts from post to close (+4). Somebody liked em.
3) And the logic was very good. The Viking weaknesses came to fruition.

And thanks for the link. Walter looks like an honest guy who does solid work.

Thanks man!

Funny thing is Walt was on the Vikings last night. But I think he got the 6pt spread and not the 6.5.


He's not a bad capper, I tailed him last year and did pretty well. He puts out vid every week on Tuesday night and he did a follow up last night. He updates his picks on Thursday and Saturday as lines move and injuries get updated.

Here is his Thursday vid. He seems to like the Cards and Panthers and Steelers this week.

Here is his first vid.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Thanks man!

Funny thing is Walt was on the Vikings last night. But I think he got the 6pt spread and not the 6.5.


He's not a bad capper, I tailed him last year and did pretty well. He puts out vid every week on Tuesday night and he did a follow up last night. He updates his picks on Thursday and Saturday as lines move and injuries get updated.

Here is his Thursday vid. He seems to like the Cards and Panthers and Steelers this week.

Here is his first vid.

Salud, Khicks. I'm going to watch those videos.

One thing about Sports-Gambling. People think it's sexy, and you have to clear 60% ATS. I tip my hat to anyone that clears a profit over time.

It's a grind. It's an accumulation of small edges.

The BEST bettors are beating the closing line (on average). That extra edge of 0.5 to 1.0 points adds up over time. You might even say that the best bettor is obsessive over getting the peak # on his ticket.

I'll link another bettor that Microphone posted. A guy that seems to clear an edge over time with hard work:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1GSINeqjoPbvHGqVdIiK99wv5VgGDSsxq/edit

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Khicks, I've been listening to the first Walter video. I'll give my running commentary:

1) He gives a ton of weight to the Injury list.
...He even talks about Arizona pass-rushers who he didn't know. That's just it. Fantasy FB players know a handful of players, and they think the replacements are trash. No, except for elite NFL players, the dropoff to 2nd string is often small/negligible/zero.
...IMHO, the line-moves may be tied to Injuries. But I don't think that's the way to handicap games.

2) He mentions sharp action.
...I question some of that. I think the line on Sharp/Square is blurred nowadays, b/c so many people bet.
...On the KC/Jax game, I really question KC being a Sharp play. IMHO, KC is being bet as a knee-jerk play b/c they can't envision KC starting 0-2.
...IMHO, KC is much more vulnerable than they've been in the past. Add up the extra playoff games from the L5 years. They've been in the AFC title game each year, that's almost an extra season of games.
...If Jones was interested, he would have been in camp early. Kelce already missed a game. Mahomes made it to the finish line last year: *Does Mahomes miss games this year?

[tennelson55]

KC -3 over Jags
SB Champs against a rising team. KC losing x2 weeks in a row while the colts almost beat the jags?

Cardinals +4
Two years ago the giants were bottom feeders. They have the same team/roster and are traveling west.
Wish I saw this differently; but my giants team sucks.

Browns -2
Divisional game with a better defense than the Steelers. If Watson doesn’t throw them out of the game this should be an easy cover

[stevenash]

Cardinals +4
Two years ago the giants were bottom feeders. They have the same team/roster and are traveling west.
Wish I saw this differently; but my giants team sucks.

Arizona is tanking the season.
I know it, Goodell knows it, everybody knows it.

I wouldn't bet the Cardinals all season if you gave me the money.

[khicks26]

Khicks, I've been listening to the first Walter video. I'll give my running commentary:

1) He gives a ton of weight to the Injury list.
...He even talks about Arizona pass-rushers who he didn't know. That's just it. Fantasy FB players know a handful of players, and they think the replacements are trash. No, except for elite NFL players, the dropoff to 2nd string is often small/negligible/zero.
...IMHO, the line-moves may be tied to Injuries. But I don't think that's the way to handicap games.

2) He mentions sharp action.
...I question some of that. I think the line on Sharp/Square is blurred nowadays, b/c so many people bet.
...On the KC/Jax game, I really question KC being a Sharp play. IMHO, KC is being bet as a knee-jerk play b/c they can't envision KC starting 0-2.
...IMHO, KC is much more vulnerable than they've been in the past. Add up the extra playoff games from the L5 years. They've been in the AFC title game each year, that's almost an extra season of games.
...If Jones was interested, he would have been in camp early. Kelce already missed a game. Mahomes made it to the finish line last year: *Does Mahomes miss games this year?

Good stuff!

I agree with you that KC takes a step back this year. Kelce is 34 years old, that's a grandpa in football years. Mahomes is the best in the NFL and can win games on his own, but who does he have around him. I like Jags just didn't bet the game. I also heard someone else say the sharp money was on the Jags so you maybe right about that.

Walt is a capper first and fantasy guy second. I don't always agree with him. I use him more as a guide. He did finish thrid in the super contest a few years ago.

My best bet this week is the Lions to blow out the Seahawks. Walt was a no bet on this game.

Walt ended up a no bet on the game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s slight sharp money on the Chiefs, as Travis Kelce and Chris Jones are officially making their return. I still have no interest in betting this game. If you do, Kansas City -3 -109 at Bookmaker is the best line.

Week 2 NFL Pick: Chiefs 30, Jaguars 24
Chiefs -3 (0 Units)
Over 51 (0 Units)
Player Prop: Skyy Moore Under 2.5 Receptions +120 (0.5 Units) – BetMGM

[khicks26]

Walts picks this week are. Atl -2, Chi +3, Arz +4.5, Car +3 and Pitt +2.5.

Lets see how he does. I like ATL, Car, and Pitt.


But I am a fantasy guy, proceed with caution. LOL

[Mac4Lyfe]

Chicago Bears +2 +102
Tampa's run game is poor. Can Baker will them to another victory over a quality Bear defense? I think they come down to earth this week. The Bears are in must win mode.

Cincinnati Bengals -3 -119
Cinci must win this game today or they are 0-2 in the division, after losing to the Browns last week.


Tennessee Titans +3 -116
Tennessee is too well coached to go 0-2. They had a tough loss to the Saints last week. Bounce back for them.

Las Vegas Raiders +7.5 -108
The Bills looked a bit broke to me. Maybe there's enough film on Josh and too many commercials. haha. Too many points for me. I'm on the Raiders.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Walts picks this week are. Atl -2, Chi +3, Arz +4.5, Car +3 and Pitt +2.5.

Lets see how he does. I like ATL, Car, and Pitt.


But I am a fantasy guy, proceed with caution. LOL

Salud. I'm sure I'm going to be on PITT.

Carol +3 is probably fat, but I've been on record saying that Bryce Young will be a bust. Then again, Young's bargaining chips just went up after SAT. Seeing that the Alab QBs couldn't complete a pass against USF.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Walts picks this week are. Atl -2, Chi +3, Arz +4.5, Car +3 and Pitt +2.5.

Lets see how he does. I like ATL, Car, and Pitt.


But I am a fantasy guy, proceed with caution. LOL

Khicks, thx for your posts. They've been very beneficial. Good Luck with your plays.

A few more notes to tie up Week One:

1) I passed on the KC/Jax game. Not past-posting, but I'm kicking myself for not taking the +3.5. May or may not cash.
...My logic ties to listening to the Talking Heads. Sometimes, I listen to the sports-radio while I'm driving. Just to pick up some Fade Value.
...On this particular game, all Talking Heads presented the same argument. "Can't go against the Chiefs off a Loss." OK, even if they win, they have to cover a #. JAX +3.5 should have been a play on this game.

2) If I had any sage advice on Sports-Betting, it would be to generate a ticket portfolio with positive BTCL value.
...You want to hold as much EV on your tickets as possible. Once the game kicks off, it's up to the Gods of Gambling.
...Just think about Week Two as an example:
*Jax +3.5 would have been nice. +3 not so much.
*Rams +8 would have been nice. People forget that 2022 was a lost yr b/c of Injury. +7 not so much.
*Look at your Atl/GB play. Atl +1.5 would have been great. Atl -1 OK. Atl -3 not so good, especially b/c they adjust for the Inactive list.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Playing: 464 NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -3 (1.88). 100 to win 88.

Playing against a few biases:
*Tenn has been a playoff team in the recent past. Vrabel has some history of ATS success as a Dog.

My anti-TENN sentiment stems from Derrick Henry's status. His 2022 YPR was down about 1.00 from his peak year.

Henry led the league in carries in three of the L4 years. He's now 29, and I think he's staring at a cliff for his production. To his credit, he recorded 100+ yards in each of his L4 games last year.

Even with Henry's production, TENN struggled to score points. I'm not sure they have many answers on offense.

As for the Saints, Derek Carr comes in as the new QB. I don't think Carr is well-liked, maybe because of his bible-thumping. Truth is that he's been very productive.

His completion % was down four points last year from his career average (64%). I think Carr can seamlessly change settings and be productive on Day One. Dog bettors may think the Titans catch a piece of the +3, but I'm laying it with the Saints.

I know this is late. And this is going to sound like Sour Grapes?

*Is Vrabel isane for trying to win last week's game on SIX field goals. He kicked a short FG w/ only 2:17 left.

He knows he needs a Touchdown or Two FGs to win the game. He really thought the best way to do it was to kick a FG that late. I saw Holmgren makes a similar FG decision some years ago, and I thought it was insane then, too:

	FG 11:12 Nick Folk 45 Yd Field Goal 12 plays, 48 yards, 5:11	12	16
	FG 2:17 Nick Folk 29 Yd Field Goal 9 plays, 62 yards, 4:25	15	16

[khicks26]

Khicks, thx for your posts. They've been very beneficial. Good Luck with your plays.

A few more notes to tie up Week One:

1) I passed on the KC/Jax game. Not past-posting, but I'm kicking myself for not taking the +3.5. May or may not cash.
...My logic ties to listening to the Talking Heads. Sometimes, I listen to the sports-radio while I'm driving. Just to pick up some Fade Value.
...On this particular game, all Talking Heads presented the same argument. "Can't go against the Chiefs off a Loss." OK, even if they win, they have to cover a #. JAX +3.5 should have been a play on this game.

2) If I had any sage advice on Sports-Betting, it would be to generate a ticket portfolio with positive BTCL value.
...You want to hold as much EV on your tickets as possible. Once the game kicks off, it's up to the Gods of Gambling.
...Just think about Week Two as an example:
*Jax +3.5 would have been nice. +3 not so much.
*Rams +8 would have been nice. People forget that 2022 was a lost yr b/c of Injury. +7 not so much.
*Look at your Atl/GB play. Atl +1.5 would have been great. Atl -1 OK. Atl -3 not so good, especially b/c they adjust for the Inactive list.

You got that right. Should have took ATL at +2 and the Lions took a dump at mid-field.

Nice call on TB this week, would have posted but I didn't see the thread until after kickoff.

For what it's worth still like the Steelers.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

You got that right. Should have took ATL at +2 and the Lions took a dump at mid-field.

Nice call on TB this week, would have posted but I didn't see the thread until after kickoff.

For what it's worth still like the Steelers.

Salud. Steelers in Week 02 are one of those games that seems like an Auto-play based on Week 01 over-reaction.

How can the Browns be that good? Walter noted that QB Watson still doesn't look that good.

Only two hesitations I might have:
1) PITT Def End Heyward is out.
2) I'm not on top of my game. Normally, I'd already have +2.5 in my pocket. I don't like taking a short #, so we'll see on +2.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

OK, I'm down. Got the # I wanted: PITT +2.5 (-110).

One more reason to like the Steelers. Bengals lost again, and Burrow's stats looked below his standard. If he really is carrying an injury, that's another reason for why the Browns looked so dominant last week.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Walts picks this week are. Atl -2, Chi +3, Arz +4.5, Car +3 and Pitt +2.5.

Lets see how he does. I like ATL, Car, and Pitt.


But I am a fantasy guy, proceed with caution. LOL

Khicks, thx for all your posts. I watched most of the Walter videos. He does a lot of good work.

Of course, I never take one's opinion without some discerning. I thought he was too fat on the Niners.

As for his opinion on Saints/Carolina, it's hard to disagree. A 3-pt Road Fav is supposed to be decidedly better than the opponent. And it's hard to see that.

I'm not so good on my player knowledge anymore. It really comes down to the QB matchup:
*I mentioned that I'm higher on Carr than most. He really produces consistently.
*The line keeps drifting to Saints. If one could take CAROL +3 (+100), that's hard to pass up.

As I said b4, my anti-Young bias might be holding me back. And I still think Saban was insane for holding out Milroe on SAT. Everyone saw what the results were.

[khicks26]

Khicks, thx for all your posts. I watched most of the Walter videos. He does a lot of good work.

Of course, I never take one's opinion without some discerning. I thought he was too fat on the Niners.

As for his opinion on Saints/Carolina, it's hard to disagree. A 3-pt Road Fav is supposed to be decidedly better than the opponent. And it's hard to see that.

I'm not so good on my player knowledge anymore. It really comes down to the QB matchup:
*I mentioned that I'm higher on Carr than most. He really produces consistently.
*The line keeps drifting to Saints. If one could take CAROL +3 (+100), that's hard to pass up.

As I said b4, my anti-Young bias might be holding me back. And I still think Saban was insane for holding out Milroe on SAT. Everyone saw what the results were.

No problem Thanks for yours. I'm sure you know more than I do and its helpful to me.

I like Carr also, always have. So you should go with your gut or just not bet the game. Walt gets shit wrong, but he is more right than wrong. So far it looks like he might be having a bad week. We'll see after tonight. But if he kept you from betting Jax that's a win for you.

I agree with you, take everything you hear with a grain of salt. In the end it's your money being lost.

Hope we can bounce shit off each other this season. GL tonight. GO STEELERS.