NFL SURVIVOR Thread....Lets Strategize!

[MadCapper]

Different people use different approaches when it comes playing Survivor/King of the Hill.

Some people like to take the biggest point spread/best available matchup each week without worrying about the following weeks.

While others look weeks in advance before placing their picks.

Lets put our heads together and see if any of us....or a bunch of us...can kick ass in our survivor pools!

Lets start with week 1....

What team would you go with?

[TheCommish]

I've fallen victim to the 'look ahead' strategy the past two years. I haven't decided on a specific strat yet, but will be something that only looks at the current week. I guess there is no point in planning for the future if you won't be in it.

[MadCapper]

Week 1 is brutal.

New Orleans might be the best bet.

[WvGambler]

There is not a single game week 1 that I feel overly comfortable with. Would say the Boys but the Skins play them way too tough.

[officepoolguy]

interesting post...you have to look ahead as you need to separate yourself from the crowd and give yourself a good shot at the end. It takes time going through the whole
schedule and finding the right matchups.

I will be creating a thread with all my office pool picks next week if interested. I also wrote a book on office pool stratetgy, pm if you like a free copy.

[MadCapper]

interesting post...you have to look ahead as you need to separate yourself from the crowd and give yourself a good shot at the end. It takes time going through the whole
schedule and finding the right matchups.

I will be creating a thread with all my office pool picks next week if interested. I also wrote a book on office pool stratetgy, pm if you like a free copy.

I will!

But who would you take in week 1?

[officepoolguy]

I am waiting for the preseason to shake out a little and the lines to set... the first week is a really difficult this year with all the divisional match ups.

[MadCapper]

Yup. I dont see a clear winner.

[OverUnder]

Tennessee over Oakland

[rochestertitans]

titans win and saints win

[mp5070]

MadCapper,

What happened to your other thread that guarantees 100 Units through the World Series?

[canabiz]

interesting post...you have to look ahead as you need to separate yourself from the crowd and give yourself a good shot at the end. It takes time going through the whole
schedule and finding the right matchups.

I will be creating a thread with all my office pool picks next week if interested. I also wrote a book on office pool stratetgy, pm if you like a free copy.

There is no point looking ahead if you don't survive! The name of the game is to survive and move on to next week. If you put too much stock into *mapping the season* and forgetting the fundamentals i.e. taking the team with the best chance of winning straight up this week, you run the risk of not advancing to the next week and your strategies will be out the windows.

With that being said, I expect the Titans, Giants and Bears to be the 3 most popular picks for Week 1, with the Pats/Chargers to a lesser extent. Anything else and you are asking for trouble.

[MadCapper]

MadCapper,

What happened to your other thread that guarantees 100 Units through the World Series?

Its still up and running. Probably in the baseball forum.

[MadCapper]

There is no point looking ahead if you don't survive! The name of the game is to survive and move on to next week. If you put too much stock into *mapping the season* and forgetting the fundamentals i.e. taking the team with the best chance of winning straight up this week, you run the risk of not advancing to the next week and your strategies will be out the windows.

With that being said, I expect the Titans, Giants and Bears to be the 3 most popular picks for Week 1, with the Pats/Chargers to a lesser extent. Anything else and you are asking for trouble.

Sound advice. Have you ever won playing it this way?

[thezbar]

I've gotten closer to the top prize in these pools but have yet to cash. I've tried both methods. The just survive method has gotten me farther along into the season. One thing I've noticed is the winners go against the grain at certain points in the season. So when that upset happens they are sitting in a better spot. I am playing three squares this season and scramble my selections with two using the same team and the other square going a different route. Still you need the breaks to go your way to win these things.
Last season the plan ahead method buried my ass in week 12.

[canabiz]

Sound advice. Have you ever won playing it this way?

I started playing this type of Pool in 2004 and have gone the distance twice (i.e. surviving until Week 17 and taking home or splitting the prizes with other survivors). I normally post my thought and pick over at the Prescription or Madjack but will try to pop in here more often this year.

I would be lying to you if I said this pool is easy. I spent a fair bit of time each week looking at a particular game from different angles to make sure no stone is left unturned and I still get bounced a few times. That's the nature of the game, on any given Sunday...the only thing that is within your control is to do your due diligence and take the team with the best chance of winning straight-up, week in and week out...easier said than done but that's part of the fun.

Good luck fellas and surviving we shall!

[MadCapper]

WOW! All great advice so far.

Should you always do at least 2 entries?

[officepoolguy]

I have won these pools before and you don't do it by playing the team favored by the most points. You do it by having an idea of what the plays are going to be and adjusting as you go. Just like with any good handicapping you need to do your research and not follow the crowd. You want to have an advantage when everyone else is out of options.

[canabiz]

WOW! All great advice so far.

Should you always do at least 2 entries?

It depends on how big the pot is and your pool format. Some pools allow you to *sell* entries for an agreed-upon price and it may make sense to unload 1 for a little bit of profit and continue with the other one, depending on your comfort level and experience playing these Pools, obviously.

Another tidbit that you may or may not already know is to hedge your plays, especially in later weeks when there are not that many entries left and things become more unpredictable. People tend to be greedy and want to go all the way but sometimes you can't win 'em all and a little bit of cushion never hurts.

[MadCapper]

I have won these pools before and you don't do it by playing the team favored by the most points. You do it by having an idea of what the plays are going to be and adjusting as you go. Just like with any good handicapping you need to do your research and not follow the crowd. You want to have an advantage when everyone else is out of options.

[THE HITMAN]

I don't understand not looking ahead. You may not be there, sure, but you have to asume you will be and play that way.

[officepoolguy]

Totally agree hitman

[MadCapper]

I don't understand not looking ahead. You may not be there, sure, but you have to asume you will be and play that way.

The question is do you look ahead without compromising the week at hand?

[slacker00]

Titans. We had a thread about this already a month or two ago. I did a long writeup explaining my strategy. For example, try not to take a road team or a team playing in division. I really don't use the look ahead strategy at all, but I try to ride a hot team while it's hot.

[TheCommish]

Week 1 -- I like Tennessee and Dallas.

[MadCapper]

So far seems like Tennessee is the consensus.

Years past WEEK 1 was a lot easier.

[y2kr1000]

Man im suprised no ones on the packers week 1. A clear favourite in my opinion after watching them over the past few weeks.

[canabiz]

Man im suprised no ones on the packers week 1. A clear favourite in my opinion after watching them over the past few weeks.

There are much better spots for the Packers down the road, at least for this type of Pool anyway.

You can jump on the Pack in Week 2 against Buffalo, Week 4 against Detroit or Week 14 at Detroit.

[slacker00]

There are much better spots for the Packers down the road, at least for this type of Pool anyway.

You can jump on the Pack in Week 2 against Buffalo, Week 4 against Detroit or Week 14 at Detroit.

I hate looking ahead, but the Packers hosting Buffalo week 2 looks like a slam dunk as a survivor pick. Atlanta hosting Arizona is the next best survivor pick week 2. The rest of the week 2 games look kinda risky.

I can go into deeper detail about the Bills @ Packers when that game comes around, but it's a great matchup for the Packers. The Packers biggest weakness is passing defense, but the Bills look like maybe the weakest pass offense in the league. Teams like the Bills, with no QB and nobody at WR, are a dream for the Packers.

[Riv34]

Colts Colts Colts


cause they spit hotfire

[THE HITMAN]

The question is do you look ahead without compromising the week at hand?

I know this seems like a cop out, but I try to work out something so as not to compromise either.

[TiTlist]

yes i have tenn this week, week 2-4 are very easy if you wanna burn up the good teams early

[Clear2Land]

Man im suprised no ones on the packers week 1. A clear favourite in my opinion after watching them over the past few weeks.

I've already locked in my packers pick seems like a happy medium between takin the best pick that week and lookin ahead as well..good luck

[stuiees]

I personally have TEN