Over/ Under MNF Poll: Are you a winner?

**High3rEl3m3nt** · 09-17-12, 01:24 PM

Total apparently 51 at quite a few books too.

**BigDeem5** · 09-17-12, 01:49 PM

You talk a lot of smack for not posting plays.

**High3rEl3m3nt** · 09-17-12, 01:50 PM

I do post plays...I keep them all in one thread.

**High3rEl3m3nt** · 09-17-12, 01:55 PM

Deem, the difference between you and I is that you talk smack and are a joke, broke loser. I talk smack and win. This is Player's talk and you've never been cut out for it.

**firedawg** · 09-17-12, 01:59 PM

Originally posted by High3rEl3m3nt

Deem, the difference between you and I is that you talk smack and are a joke, broke loser. I talk smack and win. This is Player's talk and you've never been cut out for it.

A light

**SteveRyan** · 09-17-12, 02:07 PM

Besides a 3 point home advantage, the only thing that Atlanta has on Denver is better passing (Ranked 5th); however, Denver did manage to put up 31 points last week against the Steelers who have one of the best rated defenses in the league.

This is Denvers 1st road game of the season. Coincidentally, its also Atlantas 1st home game. Can you say iffy??

The smart bet here is on the total for sure. I think O51 is good to go.

**High3rEl3m3nt** · 09-17-12, 02:20 PM

Does Atlanta have a better defense though? I was thinking they are little undersized and that Denver might try to run more tonight. I agree that picking a side is tough. I want to say that Denver and Manning beating the steelers at home probably has the public thinking Denver is better than they really are. Manning's first game on the road and I am not so sure. I'd lean Atlanta. The one thing I absolutely can't stand about Atlanta is their hippo for a RB. Like their backup better.

I am suspending my judgment on the total...so far, this poll has not helped me much.

**SteveRyan** · 09-17-12, 02:23 PM

Originally posted by High3rEl3m3nt

Does Atlanta have a better defense though? I was thinking they are little undersized and that Denver might try to run more tonight. I agree that picking a side is tough. I want to say that Denver and Manning beating the steelers at home probably has the public thinking Denver is better than they really are. Manning's first game on the road and I am not so sure. I'd lean Atlanta. The one thing I absolutely can't stand about Atlanta is their hippo for a RB. Like their backup better.

I am suspending my judgment on the total...so far, this poll has not helped me much.

Sorry....that was a typo. Getting my teams mixed up after all this capping and research and stuff.

Denver defense is better or course.

**firedawg** · 09-17-12, 02:26 PM

Falcons are undersized at corner ..... Grimes out also. Peyton will pick them apart as the game goes on. 34-23 broncos

**High3rEl3m3nt** · 09-17-12, 04:38 PM

Line dropped from 52--last night to 50 right now (5dimes). Public is on the over...sharp action or bigger money betting the line down?

I typically lean against the Public ATS and with them on the totals--public has had success on the totals over the years and has been miserable ATS..well-documented statfox as a general rule of thumb.

I am going to bite on the over 50 and am just leaning Falcons at this point.

**High3rEl3m3nt** · 09-17-12, 04:42 PM

Also, I will be looking for middling opportunities.

**High3rEl3m3nt** · 09-17-12, 04:47 PM

I also don't think it's out of the question that Denver will have a lead at some point during the first half. Good opportunity to bet Denver ML and then take a Plus ATL moneyline for some free money.

EDIT: Bought Bronco ML for this sole purpose. If you put $300 on the ML, you're looking at about plus $111. I will buy ATL plus money @ better odds when the opportunity rises.

**AzNsEnSaTiOn** · 09-17-12, 04:53 PM

Total down to 50 now...

**tshafer117** · 09-17-12, 04:53 PM

I got the under for 323 dollars, feel pretty confident about it. Happy to see the line at dsi jumped down to 50, and I got it at 52 last night. Good Luck, I think the under is a good play.

**AzNsEnSaTiOn** · 09-17-12, 04:59 PM

I may buy it down to 49 and take the over. Maybe we can both hit at 50

**FB1907** · 09-17-12, 05:04 PM

Took the under last night at 52 with the impression that it would most likely drop a few pts this afternoon. Which it did. The public is pounding the over, i guess everyone thinks since its primetime monday night football the two teams are automatically going to have a shootout. The carolina/giants game is at 52 which is accurate considering both powerful offenses and very weak defenses, but i can't possibly imagine this game going over 52. Both teams have solid D's, broncos strong on the rushing D and not that bad in the secondary with bailey. Yes the broncos did put up 31 pts against the steelers but the last touchdown came from an interception from Roth and the broncos had great field possession on the 20 yard line, the steelers had fallen apart at that moment with the fact that the game was over for them, so i think the public is overreacting a bit with that. As for Peyton, i think this will be a bigger test for him. First road game against a good falcon team. But regardless i think manning and the broncos offense will find a way to get it done one way or another but it won't be easy.On the other hand Atlanta doesn't have a running game. They are a 1 dimensional offense relying solely on the aerial attack for pts. Turner can't seem to get it done on the ground, and jacquizz roders is unproven as of now. Sure they put up 40 pts against the chiefs, lol, but so did the ailing bills whose defense allowed 48 pts in week 1. I think any decent NFL team can easily put up 30-40 pts against the chiefs D, yet again another misconception of the public. If the Falcons can figure a way out to get it done with the running game and do what they did in KC with their aerial attack then this game will easily go over. But i just don't see that happening with the broncos. I predict a tough, hard fought game. score should be no more than something like 27-21..

**High3rEl3m3nt** · 09-17-12, 05:46 PM

Appreciate your guys' thoughts. Hoping Denver gets up early and I can buy the other side. A quick TD and the inplay total will be way high...will take the under and hope for best case scenario...gl to all tonight

**hels** · 09-17-12, 05:55 PM

I'm surprised the OU is dropping so much. Of course we don't know the reason why but one would expect the public to heavy favor the Over. Theoretically lines move because they are looking for equal money and I would expect Pinnacle line movement is all computerized using formulas and shit.

With Grimes out and a smaller Atlanta D you expect Manning to pass 60% of the time hence slowing the game. I expect the Falcons will play a very aggressive defense trying to sack Manning and leaving 1v1 passing protection. Atlanta's offense might be looking to control the game and let the clock run limiting the amount of time Denver's offense is on the field.

I think the Under might be the smart play tonight.

**Mr Handicapable** · 09-17-12, 06:04 PM

Originally posted by FB1907

Took the under last night at 52 with the impression that it would most likely drop a few pts this afternoon. Which it did. The public is pounding the over, i guess everyone thinks since its primetime monday night football the two teams are automatically going to have a shootout. The carolina/giants game is at 52 which is accurate considering both powerful offenses and very weak defenses, but i can't possibly imagine this game going over 52. Both teams have solid D's, broncos strong on the rushing D and not that bad in the secondary with bailey. Yes the broncos did put up 31 pts against the steelers but the last touchdown came from an interception from Roth and the broncos had great field possession on the 20 yard line, the steelers had fallen apart at that moment with the fact that the game was over for them, so i think the public is overreacting a bit with that. As for Peyton, i think this will be a bigger test for him. First road game against a good falcon team. But regardless i think manning and the broncos offense will find a way to get it done one way or another but it won't be easy.On the other hand Atlanta doesn't have a running game. They are a 1 dimensional offense relying solely on the aerial attack for pts. Turner can't seem to get it done on the ground, and jacquizz roders is unproven as of now. Sure they put up 40 pts against the chiefs, lol, but so did the ailing bills whose defense allowed 48 pts in week 1. I think any decent NFL team can easily put up 30-40 pts against the chiefs D, yet again another misconception of the public. If the Falcons can figure a way out to get it done with the running game and do what they did in KC with their aerial attack then this game will easily go over. But i just don't see that happening with the broncos. I predict a tough, hard fought game. score should be no more than something like 27-21..

You're correct Denver only put up 25 on offense but that was with Pitt controlling the ball for 35 minutes. Peyton was on fire w/the hurry up from the 2nd Q on and Atl is now running the hurry up as well w/Julio Jones breaking out as a star WR. If you remember early last year...Philly was kicking Atl around at home and Ryan rallied them for something like 35-31 or something. Philly has good corners/pass rush too. I LOVE Over 50 and Denver ML +137 is too good to pass up as well...though Ryan is good enough to steal the game late.

**texhooper** · 09-17-12, 06:06 PM

Originally posted by hels

I'm surprised the OU is dropping so much. Of course we don't know the reason why but one would expect the public to heavy favor the Over. Theoretically lines move because they are looking for equal money and I would expect Pinnacle line movement is all computerized using formulas and shit.

With Grimes out and a smaller Atlanta D you expect Manning to pass 60% of the time hence slowing the game. I expect the Falcons will play a very aggressive defense trying to sack Manning and leaving 1v1 passing protection. Atlanta's offense might be looking to control the game and let the clock run limiting the amount of time Denver's offense is on the field.

I think the Under might be the smart play tonight.

i don't know man, i feel like atlanta is trying to establish themselves as a "strike first, strike hard, no mercy sir!" kinda offense. lot of unknown, or little-known, variables tonight. on the over personally, but if it doesn't hit it won't be anything i haven't seen before.

**Mr Handicapable** · 09-17-12, 06:07 PM

Originally posted by hels

I'm surprised the OU is dropping so much. Of course we don't know the reason why but one would expect the public to heavy favor the Over. Theoretically lines move because they are looking for equal money and I would expect Pinnacle line movement is all computerized using formulas and shit.

With Grimes out and a smaller Atlanta D you expect Manning to pass 60% of the time hence slowing the game. I expect the Falcons will play a very aggressive defense trying to sack Manning and leaving 1v1 passing protection. Atlanta's offense might be looking to control the game and let the clock run limiting the amount of time Denver's offense is on the field.

I think the Under might be the smart play tonight.

Trust me as an Indy resident/fan...you have it backwards as far as defending PM. HE WANTS YOU TO BLITZ....traditionally he's struggled more against bend but don't break teams that lay back (3-4 Ds) but Denver has the O-line to run in the redzone unlike Indy. I guess 1 team (prob Atl) could try to run and slow the pace or go for 7-8 min drives and only get Fg's...that burned me yesterday w/Minn/Indy Over. I'm doubling on Over 50 though

**High3rEl3m3nt** · 09-17-12, 06:13 PM

I don't know if Atlanta can control the clock using Turner. Guy is so fat and ineffective. Running him is giving up a down.

**seaborneq** · 09-17-12, 07:12 PM

I thought the bears/packers should have gone over too.

**High3rEl3m3nt** · 09-17-12, 07:29 PM

poll ended up being close and none of the key guys voted. In-game betting going to be key for me.

**High3rEl3m3nt** · 09-17-12, 07:30 PM

Espn guys picked Denver (5-3 votes) to win....hmmm...this is a good fade as well.

**High3rEl3m3nt** · 09-17-12, 07:47 PM

Turner can't get enough speed to bulldoze through..too lethargic.

**High3rEl3m3nt** · 09-17-12, 07:53 PM

Doesn't look like I will get to take Atlanta plus moneyline anytime soon

**High3rEl3m3nt** · 09-17-12, 07:56 PM

wow...manning INT machine. He's trying to outdo Eli's performance.

**FB1907** · 09-17-12, 07:57 PM

Originally posted by High3rEl3m3nt

wow...manning INT machine. He's trying to outdo Eli's performance.

yup looks like it. Also i'm gonna go ahead and say goodbye and goodnite to the under. manning will have 4 int's this game one for a pick 6 game def going over. FML FML FML!!!!!!!!!!!

**High3rEl3m3nt** · 09-17-12, 07:58 PM

several posters voted over after the game started

**High3rEl3m3nt** · 09-17-12, 07:58 PM

FB...let's come up with an in-play winner...I will save you some money.

**FB1907** · 09-17-12, 08:01 PM

Originally posted by High3rEl3m3nt

FB...let's come up with an in-play winner...I will save you some money.

YEAH man let's do it..too early right now but we'll see closer to the end of the first half. I'll be on here. we'll keep each other posted!

**FB1907** · 09-17-12, 08:03 PM

that dropped td pass was a godsend..still shit ton of pts..denver looking weak as a mother...man NFL is so weird!!

**High3rEl3m3nt** · 09-17-12, 08:04 PM

I bit and took ATL -3 right before kickoff for 300. So far, I have Denver money line for 300 (was hoping I'd get an opportunity to take ATL plus money) and I have 400 on the over.

Denver +9.5 seems a bit of an overreaction. I think Manning will keep Denver closer than 9.5. I want to see one more drive though.