Is Reverse Line Movement really that good of a leading indicator?

**TPowell** · 01-03-09, 04:37 PM

well if most of the public is on one side and the line moves differently than you would have to think that more big money bettors are on the opposite side of the public.

**curious** · 01-03-09, 04:39 PM

Originally posted by TPowell

well if most of the public is on one side and the line moves differently than you would have to think that more big money bettors are on the opposite side of the public.

But does that mean the big money bettors are "right"? or does this tell you to stay away from the play?

In other words, are the 'big money bettors' right often enough that you should care about this?

**onthewhat** · 01-03-09, 04:40 PM

big money bettors hit 100%

small money betters hit 0%

duh

**LT Profits** · 01-03-09, 04:41 PM

http://www.sbrforum.com/Betting+Articles/NFL/9202/reverse-line-movements-can-lead-big-profits.aspx

**curious** · 01-03-09, 04:41 PM

Originally posted by onthewhat

big money bettors hit 100%

small money betters hit 0%

duh

Sure they do.

**LT Profits** · 01-03-09, 04:43 PM

RLM has been profitable in every sport the last two years.

**TPowell** · 01-03-09, 04:43 PM

thats what I struggled with too. If you bet with big money, you'll succeed the same as they do. Not every big bettor is a genius, I'm sure there are some that just throw money around.

**TPowell** · 01-03-09, 04:44 PM

LT, do you have the records in college basketball this year? Just wondered what it would be

**curious** · 01-03-09, 04:44 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

http://www.sbrforum.com/Betting+Arti...g-profits.aspx

Thanks LT. Can I just use Sports Insight for the RLM info or are there other places I should look also?

This would have saved me a ML loss (-450) on ND today in NCAAB .

**LT Profits** · 01-03-09, 04:45 PM

All those numbers are pulled from SI, so they are the source I would recommend.

**The Seer** · 01-03-09, 04:51 PM

Originally posted by onthewhat

big money bettors hit 100%

small money betters hit 0%

duh

not 100% but the thing is they usually have access to info that most bettors wouldn't such as the true status of key injuries, game plans and such

**LT Profits** · 01-03-09, 04:55 PM

Originally posted by TPowell

LT, do you have the records in college basketball this year? Just wondered what it would be

Code:

Book       	Record	Units	Win %
BetOnline	23-15-2	5.7	57.50%
Pinnacle	11-6-0	4.63	64.71%
CRIS       	32-25-4	3.85	52.46%
Bet Jamaica   	12-8-0	2.85	60.00%
Greek      	13-11-0	0.15	54.17%

**curious** · 01-03-09, 04:56 PM

Originally posted by The Seer

not 100% but the thing is they usually have access to info that most bettors wouldn't such as the true status of key injuries, game plans and such

I see. Thanks.

**pavyracer** · 01-03-09, 05:02 PM

Follow my picks and you don't have to worry about RLM and other imaginary gimmicks. 80% success rate in the business in 6 different sports.

**DevilDog** · 01-03-09, 06:06 PM

Guys, RLM is just one of a number of tools you should use. Listen, I have been doing this for a long time and trust me...between the internet sites, the radio, TV, and the newspapers there is not much information that we don't get.

The thought that there are guys out there with secret information is an old bettors tale! Just not true in most cases. Maybe years ago that was true, but not now.

As for RLM being profitable...well the believers say it is but when the numbers are run it is pretty debatable. And there are so many ways to judge a RLM.

Now today is a pretty good example of RLM with the Arizona game. Close to 60% of the bets (around there) have been on the Falcons but the line has moved from Atlanta being three point favs to favs of only 1.5 to even an underdog. So that is a fairly serious line move.

Does that mean that Arizona will win? Of course not. At the half they are losing by three.

RLM is just a tool, it is that simple.

**curious** · 01-03-09, 06:10 PM

Originally posted by DevilDog

Guys, RLM is just one of a number of tools you should use. Listen, I have been doing this for a long time and trust me...between the internet sites, the radio, TV, and the newspapers there is not much information that we don't get.

The thought that there are guys out there with secret information is an old bettors tale! Just not true in most cases. Maybe years ago that was true, but not now.

As for RLM being profitable...well the believers say it is but when the numbers are run it is pretty debatable. And there are so many ways to judge a RLM.

Now today is a pretty good example of RLM with the Arizona game. Close to 60% of the bets (around there) have been on the Falcons but the line has moved from Atlanta being three point favs to favs of only 1.5 to even an underdog. So that is a fairly serious line move.

Does that mean that Arizona will win? Of course not. At the half they are losing by three.

RLM is just a tool, it is that simple.

The reason I asked this question, today Notre Dame was upset by St. John's. I had Notre Dame ML. There is a post in the NCAAB forum that St. John's had RLM and was a "play". I didn't know the poster so I discounted it. St. John's won straight up. So, my notre dame moneyline play lost.

I have really good filters for finding big favs on the moneyline that win consistently. So, this RLM post got me to wondering.

**FreeFall** · 01-03-09, 10:28 PM

Originally posted by TPowell

thats what I struggled with too. If you bet with big money, you'll succeed the same as they do. Not every big bettor is a genius, I'm sure there are some that just throw money around.

I can agree with you, and I'm sure there are a lot of big bettors that throw money away. But in the long term which this is meant to be used, you can't last betting big money every single game. I think it's safe to assume that more than a majority are "smart" betters.

**Matt Rain** · 01-03-09, 10:33 PM

What DevilDog said. You still need to get a good number for reverse line moves to be profitable. If you bet the reverse line move at its "peak", i.e. at the worst number, it's most likely a -EV bet.

**DevilDog** · 01-03-09, 11:05 PM

Put it this way, if you have a game that is pretty close but you are leaning one way then a RLM favoring your leaning opinion is probably a pretty good idea to bet on.

I really wish we could have definitive numbers on this for every sport this year, and I am sure someone does...but I don't know who.

One final point...when I see a RLM like yesterday with Texas Tech and today with Atlanta I am going to have to have a pretty strong opinion on those teams to continue to take them.

Texas Tech I believe opened at -7 yet I think the bets ON them were at like 70% and the line DROPPED to -5 or even -4. That is a STRONG RLM signal to take Ole Miss. They won outright of course.

In the Falcon game Atlanta opened around a three point favorite with almost 61% (last figures i saw) of the bets on them. Yet the line dropped from Atlanta -3 to, in some places, to Arizona -1! That is a serious RLM! And the Cards won outright.

Those moves are serious moves and need to be paid attention to. Again, I would like to see the numbers covered like this....how do RLM's do when 60%, 70%, 80% of the bets are on one team and the line stays the SAME, moves a half point, moves a full point, and so on.

I think you would find some pretty solid numbers with the big line moves but I am not sure. A TRUE RLM is NOT when a team gets a huge percentage of the bets on them but the line DOES NOT MOVE. But some guys use that also.

**losturmarbles** · 01-03-09, 11:08 PM

nd didnt lose bc of rlm

that being said, rlm can expose public bias which nd clearly had.

i had nd at 68%, -212,
so no way im laying -450

**curious** · 01-04-09, 12:00 AM

Originally posted by losturmarbles

nd didnt lose bc of rlm

that being said, rlm can expose public bias which nd clearly had.

i had nd at 68%, -212,
so no way im laying -450

How did you calculate that 68%? I used the pythag number adjusted for strength of schedule and had ND at a 84% probability of winning, or -525.

**losturmarbles** · 01-04-09, 12:18 AM

i dont like using the sos numbers bc they water down a teams pythag across all conferences.
but this was a conference game so i came up with my own pyth using the off and def efficiency from pomeroy.
pomeroy uses an exponent of 11.5 to figure his pythags, (he had nevada at 73% so a little under -300)

i used exponent of 8.5 because it was a conference game and came up with nd pyth .83, sj pyth .70

**losturmarbles** · 01-04-09, 12:23 AM

i have a theory im going to apply to a model to use for matchups of teams from different conferences, but right now im trying to work on just conference games.