Needed: Cogent explanation why betting fav/chalk is Square

**pavyracer** · 08-29-13, 01:48 PM

I bet chalk all the time. If I calculated the true line to be -350 and the book is offering -275 then I bet chalk. This is how I do it.

**Sam Odom** · 08-29-13, 01:49 PM

thanks , pavy

**ChalkyDog** · 08-29-13, 01:50 PM

It doesn't.

For someone to think that, the inverse would have to be that they believe taking a dog is "sharp" regardless of situation or outcome.

To think like that isn't just wrong, it's flat out stupid.

**Sam Odom** · 08-29-13, 01:51 PM

thanks CD

**thetrinity** · 08-29-13, 01:51 PM

why r you so obsessed with no coin is a better question

**Sam Odom** · 08-29-13, 01:53 PM

Originally posted by thetrinity

why r you so obsessed with no coin is a better question

Stay on topic please , thanks

**billysink** · 08-29-13, 02:40 PM

Ain't that some shitty dark ale that Cogent shit.

Have you fukkin sitting for days.

**crustyme** · 08-29-13, 02:44 PM

odumass.

**You mad bro** · 08-29-13, 02:45 PM

why would anyone listen to no coin?

**billysink** · 08-29-13, 02:58 PM

My MLB sheet this year is a mirror opposite of dogs and faves. Both @ around 60%. To a tee.

Prolly cause I never fukkin cared about anything other than value.

Gotta work to find it.

Is all.

**Sam Odom** · 08-29-13, 03:00 PM

Originally posted by billysink

My MLB sheet this year is a mirror opposite of dogs and faves. Both @ around 60%. To a tee.

Prolly cause I never fukkin cared about anything other than value.

Thanks billy

**greenhippo** · 08-29-13, 03:13 PM

In football, instead of betting heavy chalk. Do 6-team 20 point teasers, gets you little over 1:5 on your $ and there is usually very little to sweat over.

**wantitall4moi** · 08-29-13, 05:14 PM

Most likely people think that way because the vig is most generally attached to a favorite, especially in ML and odds situations.

Meaning in baseball if youre looking at a -135/125 line the 'true' odds might be something like 130/125. So youre overpaying on the favorite and getting full price on the dog. Obviously not all games are like that but in most cases youre paying full price or 'too much' on a favorite, especially with those teams everyone plays.

As far as spreads go the points are shaded as well as the vig attached to them with favorites. Mostly because of the mentality of gamblers as well s the intangibles of certain teams.

Is it harder to lay -14 with a team that can score 50 or is it better to take +14 with a team who can shut down almost everyone they play?

**Sam Odom** · 08-29-13, 05:43 PM

Always good to have your input wanti

**Sam Odom** · 10-31-13, 09:17 AM

**No coincidences** · 10-31-13, 09:24 AM

Originally posted by Sam Odom

NoCoin says it is without explanation of course...

I have never, in my life, said that betting chalk is always square.

Sharp = winning bet. Square = losing bet. Period.

I simply asked you if you've ever bet a dog.

Nice try, though. You suck at trolling.

**lakerboy** · 10-31-13, 09:26 AM

Sammy check the score of the heat game last night.

**ApricotSinner32** · 10-31-13, 09:29 AM

Favorite is the wrong side majority of the time or even if it isnt the wrong side its hard to decipher that it's not the wrong side hence not worth a punt. Have to be very selective in this game we call gambling.

**Sam Odom** · 10-31-13, 09:31 AM

Originally posted by lakerboy

Sammy check the score of the heat game last night.

Ok...

You check Golden State

**Sam Odom** · 10-31-13, 09:31 AM

Originally posted by ApricotSinner32

Have to be very selective in this game we call gambling.

**No coincidences** · 10-31-13, 09:32 AM

I can't tell if you're just this dumb/slow/unable to comprehend, or just a lonely old man desperately seeking some sort of human interaction. Still confused by that. I'm leaning the latter.

**The Kraken** · 10-31-13, 09:44 AM

100% incorrect Patty. Grow up ffs. Ive been tolerant of your existentialist bullshit for years now thinking you were young and and just going through the rebel guy college phase. Now its dragging on. You're better than this Patty. You really have unlimited potential kid. Lets take that step and start to realize it.

**unusialsusp5** · 10-31-13, 09:46 AM

because the true professional bettors (let's assume they live in vegas and have to manipulate to get their bets in for fear of getting shutoff or limits reduced which offshore books will pick up on in a week) only bet underdogs that they believe "can" win outright. we all know that the public bets favorites thus books weigh the odds that way. it is even worse on totals where even a higher percentage of punters bet the "over" so they can lock up their bet by the 3rd quarter they hope, but end up throwing objects at the tv because the winning team seems to not want to run it up or just want to kill the clock. you've been there over bettors. even worse than that are the ML chalk players who pay even a higher price to get a team (a favorite) giving no points and realize it so they parlay two of them. surefire way to have to re-deposit sooner. all chalk players die broke. get off the chalk.

**ApricotSinner32** · 10-31-13, 09:48 AM

Originally posted by The Kraken

100% incorrect Patty. Grow up ffs. Ive been tolerant of your existentialist bullshit for years now thinking you were young and and just going through the rebel guy college phase. Now its dragging on. You're better than this Patty. You really have unlimited potential kid. Lets take that step and start to realize it.

Kraken I could give a fuk less what you think come at me bro

**Sam Odom** · 10-31-13, 09:51 AM

Good post...

Originally posted by unusialsusp5

all chalk players die broke. get off the chalk.

We all die broke...

**innovation** · 10-31-13, 10:03 AM

It's square when you're betting discounted chalk and you don't know you are.

**ApricotSinner32** · 10-31-13, 10:07 AM

BTW i don't mean spread betting. If the line is -110/-110 i don't consider each side a favorite its equally bad imo too hard to win laying -110 on point spreads gotta be a genius.

**Sam Odom** · 10-31-13, 10:14 AM

Sammy is thinking some people believe that if they are taking a +130 dog they have avoided the vig

**The Kraken** · 10-31-13, 10:14 AM

Originally posted by ApricotSinner32

Kraken I could give a fuk less what you think come at me bro

Oh, how cliche. The existentialist that doesn't give a fuk less

come on, try harder

**leetreaper** · 10-31-13, 10:44 AM

Originally posted by Sam Odom

Sammy is thinking some people believe that if they are taking a +130 dog they have avoided the vig

**No coincidences** · 10-31-13, 10:53 AM

Originally posted by Sam Odom

Sammy is thinking some people believe that if they are taking a +130 dog they have avoided the vig

If you're dumb enough to think that you should take all dogs just to avoid the vig and that will somehow make you a winning bettor, you shouldn't be gambling.

**ApricotSinner32** · 10-31-13, 11:00 AM

Originally posted by Sam Odom

Sammy is thinking some people believe that if they are taking a +130 dog they have avoided the vig

Would not blindly bet anything. Blindly betting with no angle doesn't matter what the price is you'll get blown off the map.

**lakerboy** · 10-31-13, 11:01 AM

Originally posted by Sam Odom

Ok...

You check Golden State

I had warriors -12.

-102 btw.

Thanks pal.

**Sam Odom** · 10-31-13, 11:02 AM

Originally posted by ApricotSinner32

Would not blindly bet anything.

Yup... Value is Value regardless if it is a -300 fav or +130 dog