Arizona -1 @ SDSU? CBB

[ChalkyDog]

Saw this line coming for a bit now. Actually, I was hoping Arizona was going to be getting points due to the multiple site predictors out there. Kenpom had SDSU favored coming into the season, but is the only site currently to favor Arizona. Every other site has Arizona as a dog in this game.

The highest Arizona is ranked on any of these sites is 20. Much lower than their position in the polls.

Listen, I am pounding the fukk out of Arizona, and might even post up at places where I can sell points. But, I am a homer of the highest , even though I believe I do a pretty decent job of picking my spots against and for.

If anyone is interested, I scouted this game weeks ago, and have quite a bit of pertinent info on it.

Anybody got SDSU? Can you please tell me why?

[Louisvillekid1]

Saw this line coming for a bit now. Actually, I was hoping Arizona was going to be getting points due to the multiple site predictors out there. Kenpom had SDSU favored coming into the season, but is the only site currently to favor Arizona. Every other site has Arizona as a dog in this game.

The highest Arizona is ranked on any of these sites is 20. Much lower than their position in the polls.

Listen, I am pounding the fukk out of Arizona, and might even post up at places where I can sell points. But, I am a homer of the highest , even though I believe I do a pretty decent job of picking my spots against and for.

If anyone is interested, I scouted this game weeks ago, and have quite a bit of pertinent info on it.

Anybody got SDSU? Can you please tell me why?

Chalky do you have a tracking thread?

[hankcream]

Looks like a great pick, but where did you find a line on it? Tip-off is over 24 hours from now.

[ChalkyDog]

Chalky do you have a tracking thread?

Nah, hell no.

I have no interest, nor do I think I am capable of posting my plays before they happen consistently.

I keep track in my own excel file of my wagers to figure out where to clean it up, but that's the extent, all inputed well after the fact.

When I first got on here, I tried using the spreadsheet, but didn't realize all the rules to keeping a spreadsheet on here. Tried to do it again, and fell off after a few weeks.

[ChalkyDog]

Opening line: PK-123/-1 OFF

Arizona -6.5

Write ups:

http://nropp.com/351-MWC.pdf

http://www.pointguardu.com/content/arizona-san-diego-state-preview-2049/

http://www.thedailyaztec.com/2013/11/sdsu-mens-basketball-promises-to-amaze/

Authored by BaycatJ at Pointguardu

Like Arizona, SDSU is a new look team. Like Arizona, they lost 3 key players from last year, including Jamaal Frankling to the NBA, and floor leader Chase Tapley and uber efficient Deshawn Stephens to graduation. This amounts to 53% of their scoring and a huge chunk of their over-all production. Also like Arizona, they add in key pieces including Josh Davis as a grad transfer from Tulane and a pair of freshmen, including 4* Dakari Allen and 3* D'Erryl Williams, as well as redshirt 4* freshman, Matt Shrigley. Other than that, SDSU returns 4 players who averaged more than 10mpg from last year, none of whom averaged more than 9.5ppg. So here's the breakdown of the roster and how Arizona should match up.

6'3 G Xavier Thames: Expect TJ McConnell to get the assignment for the majority of the game. Thames is SDSU's leading returning scorer and evenly distributes his points between 3's, 2's, and getting to the FT stripe. However, he is fairly inefficient. With a very average 20% usage %, he only shoots a 42.5% eFG% (Arizona as a team shot 52% last year and is shooting 64% so far this year). He also is prone to TOs, with a TO rate of 18%. TJ should be salivating at this matchup.


6'7 F JJ O'Brien: This may turn into an interesting matchup. O'Brien is not an outside shooter and relies mostly on offensive rebounding to score, which he does so very effectively. The ball will rarely go through his hands in the half court and he is typically not a threat to score in a one-on-one matchup. He can be disruptive though on the defensive end. Nick may be matched up with O'Brien for size, but I think this is a better matchup for Aaron. Whoever has him on defense should be careful to box out, but should also look for opportunities to roam and create havok.


6'8 F Winston Shepard: Shepard is not a major 3 point threat, is prone to TOs, and will want to rebound. Nick may spend some time on the wirey Shepard, but Rondae will certainly look to take him out of the game when he comes in off the bench. Shepard had a terrible offensive rating of 86 last year. To compare, Arizona's 3 major returners were all over 102.


6'8 F Josh Davis: According to Hoopsnerd, Josh Davis projects as one of the top 3 transfers coming into the season. In fact, his HnI of 141 is 26 points higher than any other player for SDSU this year. The average HnI of every other major player is 114. To compare, Arizona has 3 players higher (Nick - 140, Brandon - 126, Zeus - 119). PLUS TJ is projected to come in at 139. Expect Brandon Ashley to draw this matchup. This will be a tough one, but if Arizona plays help defense well, they should be able to shut down SDSU's main offensive threat.


6'10 C Skylar Spencer: Spencer only played 14mpg and 2.9ppg last year but shot an effective 66% from 2 when he did play. He's also not a threat to stretch the floor. On defense, he has some size and likes to help block shots. Zeus' prayers have been answered. This is what he's been waiting for. I expect Zeus to terrorize Spencer on both ends of the floor, especially offense where he should get some nice dump offs and also have a favorable one-on-one situation.


To summarize, SDSU will have 1 player who averages a higher efficiency than Arizona's worst player. They have lost a large percentage of their rebounding from last year, and they will likely have a difficult time controlling the ball. They do have size at the 2, but otherwise give up size at every position to AZ. Arizona should score very well off of TOs, should completely shut SDSU down on D, and has size inside that SDSU is not accustomed to. Even against UC Riverside, SDSU only shot 45% from 2 and 31% from 3. As long as Arizona hits their FTs, this should be a lopsided game.

(ADD MORE!)

Relevant Stats:

FoxSheet: http://www.statfox.com/cbb/expanded....1114SANDIEGOST

StatSheet:

San Diego St.

Possessions per 40: 70 (256) / 2012-13 66.8 (174) / 2011-12 67.6 (132)
Efficiency: 110 (157) / 2012-13 103.7 (132) / 2011-12 105.1 (102) / 2011-12
Points Per Possession: 1.1 (155) / 2012-13 1.04 (116) / 2011-12 1.05 (97)

Year - 3pt% / 2pt% / FT%

2013 -
2012 -
2011 -


Arizona

Possessions per 40: 65 (285) / 2012-13 67 (166) / 2011-12 65.6 (226)
Efficiency: 126.2 (37) / 2012-13 109.5 (30) / 2011-12 105.3 (99)
Points Per Possession: 1.26 (32) / 2012-13 1.1 (23) / 2011-12 1.05 (97)

Year - 3pt% / 2pt% / FT%

2013 – 43% / 58% / 60%
2012 - 37% / 45% / 75%
2011 – 37% / 44% / 70%

---------

Ratings Services:

Massey: SDSU -2

(15)Arizona 66
(41)SDSU 68

- Gives SDSU a 4.5 point home court advantage

Dunkel: ZONA PK

(25)Arizona 71
(37)SDSU 71

Team Rankings: SDSU -4

(20)Arizona 66
(40)SDSU 70

Kenpom: Zona -1

(21)Arizona - 69
(54)SDSU - 68

- Had SDSU favored by 1 before LBST game

[ChalkyDog]

Looks like a great pick, but where did you find a line on it? Tip-off is over 24 hours from now.

Been waiting, and refreshing. Bookmaker opened at -1 -110. Almost immediately went to -1 -115. Currently sitting at -1.5 -110.

Seeing other shops already at -2.

[19th Hole]

Chalky...
Thanks for the post....good stuff.

[Ghenghis Kahn]

so you're going all in on sdsu right?

[wagerjunkie]

SDSU got completed gutted last year. Thames is only real talent but he's out of control. do not understand this line at all.

paying Viejas Arena this year will not be as difficult as years past.

[ChalkyDog]

so you're going all in on sdsu right?

No. Not even a little. I am taking the ride on this one.

The main factor I am weighing here is the fact that SDSU isn't a bunch of freshman, but they're a bunch of talented pieces just coming together. They will be very good, and this win will go a long way in March for Arizona, because SDSU will be a lot better in game 30, than they are in game 2.

A lot of things would have to go right for SDSU to win this game.

This isn't a good measurement, but SDSU is a projected 12 seed right now. Sitting square on the bubble. Arizona beat a projected 16 seed in Cal Poly, and absolutely destroyed a talented but equally new together team in long beach state.

I can't sit here and say Arizona is in there with the Duke's, Kansas', UK's, and Louisvilles if they can't get this win. Neither can Arizona.

Aaron Gordon is just as good as Parker, Wiggins and Randle. Arizona is playing well, and the new rules aren't as big an issue for us.

Win or bust. Fukk it.

[irish1]

Grabbed Arizona -2 for 100/risking110. 1st play of the year in college hoops. looks so inviting, Aaron Gordon is a beast and their power rating is like 10 or less, SD St is 76, so what the hell.

[k13]

Arizona obviously with more talent and should win. Hard to judge how all the one and done recruits will play as a team when the opponents get tougher. Road games in college are never easy.

-3 at some books now

looks like sharps and squares on Zona all day.

[jayc88]

i got in @-2
lets get this

[Louisvillekid1]

I'm sitting this one out,

steve fisher the giant killer

gl

[BoutDemCowboys]

The whole SBR forum is on AZ..... and if there is one thing I have ever learned is stay away when that happens!!!

But I just couldn't! Arizona ML and Towson ML parlay

BOL!

[GHSCREW]

Cmon u wildcats!

[wagerjunkie]

I'm sitting this one out,

steve fisher the giant killer

gl

its normally steve fisher plus the togetherness of his team and the VIEJAS ARENA.

Cats won't be intimidated by atmosphere of Viejas and like Chalky said...SDSU is talented but they arent in form right now to beat this Zona team.

[Louisvillekid1]

I ended up taking SDST +1.5 (1h) 1x

[ChalkyDog]

Hell, the line moved with me, so there is that. All the way to -3.5 now.

Also, little known fact, the floor used in San Diego was the floor used in the 1997 final four. Just saying.

[ChalkyDog]

I ended up taking SDST +1.5 (1h) 1x

I've had this exact bet queued up at least 5 times in the last 24 hrs.

[Louisvillekid1]

the angle here is that Coach Fisher gets 3 extra prep days @ home. Arizona always been a second half squad and this is their first road game.

[Ra77er]

I'm baffled by this line still, I love the Under 147 even with the scoring up roughly 4pts a game. If I had to bet the spread I'd take zona to the electric chair but the Under is gonna be my play on that game. Fisher likes defense and a slower tempo so I'm gonna bank on this happening tonight. GL on the spread and good reads here Chalker

[Jago2008]

San Diego native here,

Pretty good pulse on the Mountain West and Southern California sports in general and given the historical data between both teams one would think this game should be close, i.e. value on the Aztecs getting the points at home. However I have not seen enough from this San Diego St. team yet - without the likes of Jamaal Franklin and Chase Tapley, those are HUGE losses.
Winston Shepherd is a good young prospect but is prone to errors, particularly mentally, last year he had some really poor play in the clutch moments i.e. turnovers, and fouls. JJ O'brien is a good player but he also is not a player that can carry the team like Franklin and Tapley did, Xavier Thames is going to have to contribute significantly for San Diego state to have a good chance. Honestly I think this will be a good test for San Diego state's young talent but Arizona is coming in here with the advantage given their roster. I know Viejas is a hard place to win, I particularly have no bet on this game because I have not seen enough of this San Diego State squad to merit a bet.
Speaking strictly to value, there is great value on San Diego state given their home field advantage in Viejas, but this Aaron Gordon kid for Arizona looks like a stud, we'll see how he performs in this environment. I expect to see more of a defensive game here, and was leaning towards the 'under' here but these new officiating rules are ridiculous and have really reduced value on 'unders'
In any case Chalky everything you've written in this thread is entirely accurate, not much more I can add.

[ChalkyDog]

Well, I love the line movement.

-3 -110
+3 -102

Still nervous as shit, bet way too much.

[wagerjunkie]

GAME NOTES: The sixth-ranked Arizona Wildcats face a tough early season road test as they will clash with the San Diego State Aztecs in a non-league battle at Viejas Arena.
Although they are only two games into the season, the Wildcats have lived up to their billing with wins in each of the first two matchups. Both came at home for the Wildcats, who got past Cal Poly (73-62) in the opener and then routed Long Beach State (91-57). The Wildcats had 22 assists to just 11 turnovers and also shot at a 58.6 percent clip in the win over the 49ers. Arizona was a 7-4 team away from home last year but won both of its true road contests outside of conference action. Arizona will be back home next week for the first two games of the NIT Season Tip Off before heading to New York for the last two games of the event.
San Diego State is beginning this season on a three-game homestand and the first matchup of the stretch came against UC Riverside. The Aztecs had no trouble with the Highlanders as they rolled to a 77-41 victory at Viejas Arena. The Aztecs shot at just a 41.8 percent rate in the win but had a 27-8 edge from the free-throw line and also forced 21 turnovers and turned those miscues into 18 points. San Diego State was also the better team in transition, outscoring UC Riverside, 15-0, in points off turnovers. San Diego State had just one loss in 15 tries at home last season and the team will enjoy that homecourt advantage again next Wednesday against San Diego Christian.
Mark Lyons hit a pair of free throws to push Arizona ahead and Xavier Thames missed a last second shot as Arizona secured a 68-67 win these teams met last year on Christmas Day. The win ended a two-game winning streak for the Aztecs in the series. Arizona leads the all-time series by a 21-7 margin.
Even though he has not put up incredible numbers so far, Aaron Gordon, the blue chip prize of Sean Miller's recruiting class, has largely lived up to the hype in his first two games as a Wildcat. Gordon (13.5 ppg, 10.0 rpg, 2.5 bpg) is averaging a double-double in two games and is also blocking nearly three shots per game. In the win over Long Beach State, Gordon finished with 14 points and 10 rebounds. T.J. McConnell, another new addition, who was brought in to play the point, is also performing well. McConnell clearly knows his role as he isn't scoring much, but with 14 assists in two games, he is more than capable of distributing to the Wildcats' scorers. Other than Gordon, that group has included returning starters Nick Johnson (12.5 ppg) and Brandon Ashley (13.5 ppg, 8.0 rpg), as well as center Kaleb Tarczewski (10.0 ppg, 5.0 rpg). Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (8.5 ppg) has provided a spark off the bench.
Defense and transition offense were the key to the Aztecs' win over UC Riverside in the season opener. Leading the way were guards Thames and Winston Shepard. Thames scored a game-high 15 points and also had four steals, while Shepard added 10 points and did his best to facilitate the offense with five assists. Josh Davis (11 points, eight rebounds) a former double-double machine from Tulane, also had a hand in the victory. However, there is still a lot of work for the Aztecs on the offensive end. If it weren't for the team's attacking mentality that got them to the free-throw line so often, the outcome may have been much tighter. San Diego State shot just 41.8 percent from the field overall and also had just 4-of-13 shots from beyond the arc.
Playing in a hostile environment like Viejas Arena will be a really good measuring stick of how ready Arizona is early on. Gordon may have some issues in his first true road test and that could leave an opening for the Aztecs. However, the Wildcats have plenty of backup if Gordon does struggle and should be able to pull out a win, albeit a close one.
Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Arizona 71, San Diego State 67

[wagerjunkie]

two things about what i highlighted.

1. whats scary is Arizona has not adjusted to the new rules and sent their opponents to the the line a shit ton and playing on the road won't help that either.

2. I don't believe they will be intimidated by playing in Viejas as I said before and yes Gordon is a huge piece but they have so much more depth and are much more than just him.

which brings this to a stale mate. if anything i think the play is first half over 68.5

[ChalkyDog]

two things about what i highlighted.

1. whats scary is Arizona has not adjusted to the new rules and sent their opponents to the the line a shit ton and playing on the road won't help that either.

2. I don't believe they will be intimidated by playing in Viejas as I said before and yes Gordon is a huge piece but they have so much more depth and are much more than just him.

which brings this to a stale mate. if anything i think the play is first half over 68.5

For your first issue, there are not too many teams as well adjusted to the new rules. Also, the PAC-12 isn't a conference where the new rules will make much of a difference from the old rules. As a matter of fact, that PAC-12 doesn't even have a mandate from the NCAA to focus on the new rules that conferences like the ACC and B1G have.

If for whatever reason foul trouble becomes an issue for Arizona, the depth and amount of plays who can play 3 positions will help.

To add to that first issue, however, Arizona has been awful from the FT line so far this year. However I feel that is misleading as only are freshman are suspect free throw shooters. If Arizona loses, it will be because of the free throw line.

As to your second point, there will never be a player on Arizona, at any point that puts up the stats of Randle. Arizona focuses on efficiency over everything. I believe we will have 5 players with double digit scoring outputs tonight.

[Speedy88]

Well, I love the line movement.

-3 -110
+3 -102

Still nervous as shit, bet way too much.

But why open it at -1 to begin with. Books knew AZ was going to get hammered. Line should have opened at -3. Pinny and Greek have been a half pt lower on the spread since last night.

[wagerjunkie]

actually the more i think about it, i think the smartest play is under 68 1st half. i dont see either team getting in the 40s 1st half. the intensity level is going to be through the roof, guys are going to be tense, defense will be tight, and there won't be any easy transition points.

sccoring in the half court is going to be a bitch too. both teams are going to have work very hard and execute to a tee. as long as both teams aren't in the double bonus at the 12 minute mark this should be good.

[wagerjunkie]

fuk. should have stayed with my guy. over thought it.

[wagerjunkie]

they gotta score 39 points combined in 6 minutes for this to go over. Arizona going to the line every trip down the floor prob gonna do me in

[ChalkyDog]

they gotta score 39 points combined in 6 minutes for this to go over. Arizona going to the line every trip down the floor prob gonna do me in

SDSU is getting to the line every time down. Arizona is failing to go at the rim and not getting to the line enough.

[Big Bear]

Good call Chalky

Bookies clearly were way off on this line

[wagerjunkie]

pow!!!!! just barely stays under

$$$$$

[ChalkyDog]

Good call Chalky

Bookies clearly were way off on this line

Long way to go. It's good to see the score considering the best player for either team was sitting for the majority of the half and is still domiating.

Arizona would be up by 20 if Gordon played normal minutes.