How do people cap baseball?

[smoke a bowl]

Figuring out how a team or pitcher is playing currently is everything... Tail/Fade early in the streak, not after its too late. And also knowing when to back off a team/pitcher/etc.

When is it too late?

[smoke a bowl]

Coming from a guy just starting his 2nd season of mlb betting, you should not bet every day. I have been doing that for the past 3 weeks and it's cost me.
Pick your spots wisely...no more than 3 plays on a given day.
Series wins have been good, but look into the probable pitching match-ups in the series. If a team like StL, Detroit, Atlanta loses a home series you bet on, go double the next series because they RARELY lose 2 home series in a row.
Pitching match-ups are huge and finding weather plays a factor...more with totals than anything.

Play Rockies -1 or -1.5 at home...play Giants +1 or +1.5 on road when underdog...unless it's AT Colorado!

Someone needs to explain the logic behind why a winning gambler would limit themselves to 3 plays a day. Why the 3 play limit? What if there are 10 profitable plays on the board. Why give away the EV on the other 7 plays by only picking 3 of them? Seems rather silly.

[Jikos]

Try looking at how certain line ups do against certain pitchers and vice versa. Look into a pitchers history at the ballpark they are pitching in, this plays a big role sometimes. How does the pitcher perform on x amount of rest, or after x amount of innings pitched last game, etc. there are so many things you can look at just spend some time and put in some work that's all it takes.

[Jikos]

The problem most of us get into with baseball is betting every day

As with any other form of gambling Stocks casinos sports betting horses having action every day is a losing proposition

That's untrue, you should bet whenever you feel there's a good bet. It may be one play on one day and ten plays the next day. Variance doesn't keep track of the days of the week or the hour of the day.

[face]

skip cubs games
bet first 5 if the bullpen sucks
try not to bet against oakland too much

[jjgold]

No such thing as a good bet everyday that's just a sexy way of saying you like action and not winning.

[ItsMeMrMattE]

Someone needs to explain the logic behind why a winning gambler would limit themselves to 3 plays a day. Why the 3 play limit? What if there are 10 profitable plays on the board. Why give away the EV on the other 7 plays by only picking 3 of them? Seems rather silly.

i agree. ive recently gone 9-1 in 2 days. no way i could do that if i limited my self to only 3 bets a day. some days you'll see a lot of chances at profit, some days you might not see any at all. it helps with discipline i guess to limit yourself but, get that part down and just go with picks that you think will win. no matter how many they may be in one day.

[RollinDo]

You guys probably know better than me.
I have lost overall, which I think can be said of 75% of posters on here. Seems the more you force games by playing more, the more in the red you will be.
Especially only doing this for a little more than a year, don't know betting strategies well enough. What I do know is if you play everyday just for action and do limited research, you will inevitably lose.

[flyingillini]

Nobody caps, they just pick a side

[jjgold]

The lion (Illini)I your post is accurate also a lot of this stuff is random

When we win we think we out guessed them or we figure something out

[Antibet]

Small underdogs, UNDERS with a price starting from +101 to +110.
Make as many bets as you can - the more the better

[RollinDo]

As soon as you think you have it figured out is when the losing streaks come. I don't understand why betting is so streaky. I've had about 4 streaks of 7+ straight losing days and about 5 streaks of 5+ winning days. Should be winning day followed by losing day and keeps on about that trend. Maybe it's just me.

Honestly I've gone over 3 weeks without a winning day in between 2 losing days or a losing day in between 2 winning days.

[Antibet]

Maybe it's just me.

No, it's not you - it's just a theory of probability

[ProlificalD]

I dont know about "limiting" to 3 bets a day, but on average I am just above 3 bets per day. I just find it hard to get over 5-6 quality picks in a day and usually when I am betting 5+ games it means I have a day off work.

I remember doing the MLB monthly handicapping contest here in April and had trouble getting to the minimum 90 games. In the third week in I started just picking and fell right off the leaderboard. The way I handicap I just cant get that many bets in.

[Killer_Demo]

Pick 1 or 2 teams and only bet those teams games instead of playing the board. Like me with the SF Giants games.

[Itsamazing777]

Bet the tigers They are king

[House]

With a shotgun

[PublicEnemy]

Flip a coin

[jay89]

splits

[Bill Dozer]

OMG what a great post man, I agree, especially with whats in bold...especially with the thing about you having to think the team wins a high percentage of time in order to place that bad, unless we're refering to spot betting. I hate when people will place a bet because they see great value(large plus odds) despite they themselves only see that team winning 20-40% of the time...but because there is such great value, the slim chance they do win, they place the bet. Unreal.

Yup, at the risk of going cliche, you need to attempt to bet +ev. If you are not at least trying to do that, you are scratching a lotto. Most gamblers lose betting plays they view in their mind as one-offs but it's a reoccurring pattern. They get way up and then need to have a heat check or they go way down and need that good luck homer to get back in the game. But back to baseball... It's a lot like playing perfect strategy black jack. If you play right for a long time you shouldnt get cleaned out. If you play perfect strategy and know where the ace is the odds move to you. In sports betting knowing where the ace is is getting on the right side of the price.

[remeedella]

I have something to add to this thread.

I bet based on how much they are paying the loudmouths with the expensive seats in the crowd who talk shit to the guys at bat and yell 'sike' often.

[Waz]

There are probably more "gambling" skills required than "handicapping" skills in betting on baseball. Stay on top of the markets, line shop and look for certain indicators.

[deltgen]

There is no universal "right" answer; if something is making a gambler profit, then that is the right strategy for that person. For me, baseball is my favorite sport not just to gamble on, but also my favorite game period, which is the main reason, I think, that I have had a profit for 12 of the past 13 seasons. Sometimes small, and sometimes enough to fund a vacation, but nearly always profit. I'm the very definition of a recreational gambler, so none of my wagers are too big, but I start the season small, and as the bankroll grows, so does the amount I wager. I'm not meaning for this to come out in an egotistical tone, but I simply know the game, and by that I mostly mean the pitchers. Most people out there are no more than casual baseball fans, with casual baseball knowledge (despite the fact they might think they are experts) and as such know the Kershaws and Verlanders and tend to think they should always win, and so they make their wagers on the ridiculous juice that usually comes with those pitchers (even their RL numbers aren't always that great), but I have a list of "second tier" pitchers who are quite good and I bet on these guys the entire season, and most of the time their ML numbers are in the + category, which are 95% of my baseball wagers. As such, my winning percentage will only be between 45% and 55% for the season, but with nearly all of them as underdogs, that is serious profit. I also have a list of pitchers who I think pretty much suck, so I go against them nearly all the time when their opponent is the dog. As for the number of plays per day, there is no reason to cap oneself. Sometimes I see nothing so I play nothing that day, but sometimes I see six different games--why the hell would I limit myself to just three of them?
I hope this didn't come across like some of the posts I read, which amount to "my dick is bigger than your dick". It is what works for me--nothing more, nothing less. As an example of the way I cap, here are my three plays for today: Baltimore (a decent team with a decent Miguel Gonzalez going) at +115; Minnesota (Correia isn't as bad as his record, and he's playing a lousy SD team) at +155; and Toronto (not because of anything to do with them, but because they are going against lousy Dubront) at +130. Perhaps I go 0-3, in which case I'll get slammed by the likes of that JJGold dude, and will continue doing it the way I do, or perhaps I'll go 3-0, and will still continue doing it the way I do, for the sole reason that it works for me, and has for quite a long time time now.

[pavyracer]

You don't cap baseball. You place some small bets to have action during summer hoping that you won't lose your bankroll and waiting for football season to start.

[inrenokid]

Compare teams, ie. San Fran lost to Ari back in april swept! Detoit and Scherzer lost to Houston last year at minus 300+, remember these type of things when weighting the odds ,all similar to going the.distance in a horse race, also injuries most teams dont have good replacements.

[Ho Le Fuk]

Fade lt profits!

[HorsesNCards]

I start with pitching matchups. 75% of my decision is on that if I am playing for team wins.

If you are looking for over unders I start factoring in weather, ball park location, pitcher and trending averages.

Baseball I thought used to be impossible, now it is my biggest profiting sport. Best thing to do is set your bank roll, set your plays you will make and do not deviate from it.

Practice, practice, practice. I am a firm believer that what works for one handicapper may not work for the next.

[luckythangood]

Following someone on twitter who posts plays for free and has a nice long track record of winning.

[Fred The Hammer]

Someone needs to explain the logic behind why a winning gambler would limit themselves to 3 plays a day. Why the 3 play limit? What if there are 10 profitable plays on the board. Why give away the EV on the other 7 plays by only picking 3 of them? Seems rather silly.

Because if you had 10 bets with expected value per day then the books wouldn't be in business. Especially with the parity today! I just started baseball for 2014 the other day and got the Reds on Wed. at +118 with the superior pitcher and a hotter hitting team but that doesn't happen that often. These books are usually right on top of things with an accurate line

[eidolon]

Dogs

[akphidelt]

#1 rule is bankroll management. Target a winning % and ROI. Too many gamblers, myself included, expect to win big on couple games. Gotta grind. Very very boring.

[Ghenghis Kahn]

barometric pressure and air density.

also the knowledge of pitcher's jerking off arm.

if he uses the same arm he pitches with, that's a clear no no...

[bluetooth3]

Discipline, Discipline, and Discipline

You have to stick to what your goal is and understand that something so "small" as $100 profit a day makes you 3k a month and be happy with that. Limiting your plays and singling out your STRONGEST plays and only playing them. Do not try to action bet or chase just because you can watch you are going to watch the game with your buddies. Always trust your research and data and when all else fails...take Vegas's side...those guys never miss their electricity bill Best of luck!

[thetrinity]

wait for tatddy to post a mlb play and tail

[Big Bear]

I usually look at stats on odds and scores and sbr matchups.

I love baseball but Im new to it(a few years)

Weather?
Travel time?

Whats the most important things?

Cheers

def not travel time.

Nationals were clearly not effected by this yesterday