Pitchers ONLY
Example..Kershaw seems done and a tremendous fade right now
Example..Kershaw seems done and a tremendous fade right now
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Trends. Trends and Trends.
Like walking into a stripclub, can't pounce on first you see. Weed it all out, pick your spot and playComment -
Scrape data.Comment -
Handicapping baseball comes down to 3 rules for me:
1. Money management. I use a spreadsheet that strictly controls my bet sizing
2 Pitching, weather and pitching is ALL I handicap
2. NEVER lay more than -125....My average lay price is -102 so far this year. This is despite me playing mostly totals
These are lessons I was fortunate to learn from a true pro!Comment -
Never lay 1 1/2 at home, keep it under -125.Comment -
This man is absolutely right. Discipline. Something I lack in but trying for 15+ yrs to figure out..Coming from a guy just starting his 2nd season of mlb betting, you should not bet every day. I have been doing that for the past 3 weeks and it's cost me.
Pick your spots wisely...no more than 3 plays on a given day.
Series wins have been good, but look into the probable pitching match-ups in the series. If a team like StL, Detroit, Atlanta loses a home series you bet on, go double the next series because they RARELY lose 2 home series in a row.
Pitching match-ups are huge and finding weather plays a factor...more with totals than anything.
Play Rockies -1 or -1.5 at home...play Giants +1 or +1.5 on road when underdog...unless it's AT Colorado!
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But discipline doesn't mean that you should only bet no more than 3 plays on every given day. There may be some days (maybe in a row) in which you don't bet many games, there may be some days (maybe in a row) where you bet more games. Discipline has nothing to do with restricting yourself to a fixed number for each day. This will cost you. Hints like that are only helpful for absolute beginners, who have no clue about what to look at when capping. Because if they play too much you can bet on them having not looked into everything.
Discipline means staying to (which can be different for many guys) rules. That's discipline. The other thing is restriction.Last edited by posey; 05-12-15, 01:16 PM.Comment -
I bet mostly dogs. Probably 80% of my plays. I think my biggest favorite was -122 this year but my biggest dog was +195.Comment -
Today I'm on Phillies +149. Diamondbacks +133. Rockies +165. It's all about the dogs!Comment -
I take teams who are hitting better of late, have a starter and bullpen with lower Whip's and then google for example "Garza vs Cubs" and see how the cubs lineup fares vs Garza..If both teams have over 100 at bats combined vs the starting pitchers and both teams hit close to .300 or higher, I'll take the over..usually those factors are good for finding dogs and plays ..i dont usually bet on kershaw games..def not taking -200+Comment -
Line movement is huge for my handicappingComment -
It's been an Overs year so far ill tell you that muchComment -
Quick question how does weather play a roll in handicapping baseball? Only things I can think of are whether wind is blowing out (possibly favors a fly ball hitting team) (but would that really affect your bet) and whether or not it's a high chance of rain which would make me lean towards not taking a team because there's a better shot that their starting pitcher gets taken out a lot sooner than expected from a possible rain delay....anything else I'm missing?Last edited by the scab man; 05-13-15, 01:57 PM.Comment -
Weather is already factored into the line, guys.Comment -
Betting moderate to heavy underdogs works on baseball.Comment -
Anyone here in PT it's a dart toss...but that is every sport not just MLBComment -
wow this site has a lot of people talking out of there ass first off pitching isn't the only part of the game, bats score soooo im sure that should be a key stat. Im saden on no one talking about live betting you get a better price and also you get to see the flow of the game. The people talking about disciple are the only ones that know what it takes to win. Capping isn't for the weak minded example saying throw a dart or flip a coin those are example of people giving up. Baseball is the longest season and has the most games. So i play the law of averages. I pick my teams i feel have a good chance and wait to strike. This approach is really hard but the value you get is unarguable the best, just after a team batting the line will easily drop 30 points and then go back after the opponent bats. Now you have to decide if you want to just take picks before a game and not watch it. Or if you are watching get the feeling of the game by second inning or so no rush you have 9 innings and go for it. I just sit there for the 7 oclock games and track whos been hitting, pitching, LOB, Over/Unders, etc and make my bets as they come. There is no amount i play with or stop at i just make educated assumptions and bet that. Some nights i have a 30 bet day sometimes its 15 you cant lose what you don't bet so making good decisions is key.Comment -
I take about five seconds each game and doing very well lately just seeing how the teams are playing recently and who's pitchingComment -
Spray and pray. Look at the games and matchups and try to guess what I would think the line would be then check. Anything way off bet.Comment -
Streaks:
Mia - lost 10 in a row
wash - wn 6 out of 9
nyy - lost 7 out of 9
cin - lost 8 out f 9
pgh - lost 7 out o 9Comment
