How do people cap baseball?

[allang198]

I usually look at stats on odds and scores and sbr matchups.

I love baseball but Im new to it(a few years)

Weather?
Travel time?

Whats the most important things?

Cheers

[Big Bear]

you just have to watch a lot of baseball and you will figure it out.

[sourtwist]

Nothing to figure out. Capping baseball and basketball is impossible.

[Bill Dozer]

Whats the most important things?

Getting the best price. Yes, price compare on odds but also monitoring the market to see where odds are going. If the odds open at -105 in the morning and some sportsbooks move to -110 and other books at -117 or more it could be time to bet the -105 before they adjust again. Early after the line is released is when the line moves the most. Often the first hit on the line prove that bettors don't agree with line setters and it's never coming back to that price. Same with NFL when the favorite opens too low early in the week...it starts at -5.5 and ends up at -7 -130. Chance to get the -5.5 is gone unless someone gets hurt and the match-up changes.

A lot of bettors who are used to betting spreads make the mistake of not looking at money lines the same way because they don't see scoring that effects the line like a field goal, or a TD in OT (6 pts).They say --well if they win, I win $100. I think they will win so I'm going to back them for the $100 win laying whatever. Decide what % chance your MLB team has of winning and make sure your money line price pays out better than that. Is it a bet you love because you are up $1000 on the day and want to bet the last game on the board or would make that bet 100 times and expect to come out ahead in the end? If you love the Yankees but they are -380, you have to think they could win that matchup 4 out of 5 times or you are a loser.

Don't bet it if you can't get your price. That's the most important thing.

[vividjohn45]

U have to know that oakland and detroit are penetrating road monsters. Good now ur in the money

[Dougie_Fre$h]

Value, Pitching Matchups, Streaks, Road Records,...

[STAX]

Figuring out how a team or pitcher is playing currently is everything... Tail/Fade early in the streak, not after its too late. And also knowing when to back off a team/pitcher/etc.

[vividjohn45]

After all that i told u the best oak and detroit r top 5 hitting and pitching. They are like combined 30-12 on the road. Who gives a fuk about starting pitching?

[TheBigHurt35]

Those two teams have great records in part BECAUSE of their starting pitching
Are you trying to look dumb?
If you want to help the guy, why don't you post something halfway valuable?

[JMobile]

We flip coins

[jbart28]

Have a checklist of items that you go through with each game that pass your initial eyeball test. My checklist involves having about 12 different tabs up on my laptop and having all the dome stadiums on my speed dial for roof status updates.

Baseball capping is very structured and most of the information is right in front of your face. Harvesting the data and then comparing it to the price will tell you if its a good spot or not.

The checklist is the key. Well that and 5dimes overnight reduced juice. I cap most everything at night and if I see value that may not be there closer to first pitch I put the play in the night before. I don't recommend this unless you have a lot of experience and understand line movements based on squares and public perceptions.

The .05 juice over the 750 games I bet per season is huge. Even if I only put my bets in 33% of the time to get the reduced juice, 5dimes still has 10 cent juice for everything I play- over -150 are a no no with me.

Understanding the effect of weather on a baseball and altitude is undervalued imo.

[Pauulzcappin]

I wonder how many people know that Colorado covered the run line over 80% of the times this season at home when they won. That is a perpetual +110 since they have no ace. Which is about 65% of all their home games.

There are stats everywhere. You should just go hunting for them. Also I don't advice playing anything above -120.

[jbart28]

"

[Dougie_Fre$h]

"

[ItsMeMrMattE]

something that really helped me last season on discipline was waiting for about 2 months of MLB to played out and then focusing on just the top 2 and bottom 2 teams at that point, and only those 4 teams for the rest of the season. MLB is alot about data and it can become overwhelming when you try to look for an edge out of all the teams on the board. also by focusing on the top 2 and bottom 2 you get a good idea of how their streaks are gonna go. very few people that ive found on this forum so far were not only able to predict the TOR/TEX series perfectly but also get all 3 picks at +ev. this is in part because TEX was one of the 4 teams i strictly focused on last season.

[TheMoneyShot]

Best way to cap MLB games...

Just throw a dart at a US Map.

The city closest to the hit... you pick.

[jbart28]

something that really helped me last season on discipline was waiting for about 2 months of MLB to played out and then focusing on just the top 2 and bottom 2 teams at that point, and only those 4 teams for the rest of the season. MLB is alot about data and it can become overwhelming when you try to look for an edge out of all the teams on the board. also by focusing on the top 2 and bottom 2 you get a good idea of how their streaks are gonna go. very few people that ive found on this forum so far were not only able to predict the TOR/TEX series perfectly but also get all 3 picks at +ev. this is in part because TEX was one of the 4 teams i strictly focused on last season.

I like this approach. Like you said, scouring and dissecting every game, every day is pain staking and can be overwhelming. I like to scan the card initially and really focus on the games where totals are controlled by gas cans and weather/stadiums first.
Examples of these would be Chase Field with the roof open, Mccarthy on the bump and their bullpen demolished against the dodgers and Paul Maholm.

I always look at the AL East first and then I look for Rockies at home and the West Coast for totals/ Giants at home matchups.

[tony_come]

Excel

[jjgold]

It's all pitching

There really is nothing else to look at

Possibly go against teams with overrated hitter

Atlanta Braves cannot hit so fade them most if time vs decent pitchers

[upscope]

It's all pitching

There really is nothing else to look at

Possibly go against teams with overrated hitter

Atlanta Braves cannot hit so fade them most if time vs decent pitchers

You're joking right??

[Big Bear]

It's all pitching

There really is nothing else to look at

Possibly go against teams with overrated hitter

Atlanta Braves cannot hit so fade them most if time vs decent pitchers

JJ the Braves must not face many "decent pitchers" since they are in 1st Place and all.

[Down_Goes Bookie]

It starts with the starting pitching. Data to look at includes batter vs. pitcher, home / away and day / night splits, and FIP and BABIP. And the recent game logs. Some pitchers excel at home and suck on the road. Some are great in the daytime (Verlander) and others suck (Gio). And of course your basic ERA WHIP and BAA. Betting against a failing or erratic pitcher is just as good and betting on a top performer.

If a veteran pitcher is getting roughed up lately, check his velocity. Fangraphs is good for FIP BABIP and velocity.

If it's a new pitcher, or a pitcher coming back from rehab, check his minor league stats.

Of course offense has to be considered as well. Your basic top-line metrics and then check the splits e.g. how a team fares against LHP, if facing LHP, home / away scoring etc. Keep a handle on injuries or guys sitting out for a rest. Lineups are usually available two hours before game time at MLB.com and other sites. Rotoworld is great for breaking player news.

Bullpens and bench strength should be considered, but that's tougher to cap when you don't know who'll be on field.

If you're relatively new to baseball and don't play fantasy ball, get a couple fantasy teams. Play it right and you'll get a good feel of what to look for. Even freebie teams still available at Yahoo help you learn the ropes.

Those are some of the highlights.

[RollinDo]

Coming from a guy just starting his 2nd season of mlb betting, you should not bet every day. I have been doing that for the past 3 weeks and it's cost me.
Pick your spots wisely...no more than 3 plays on a given day.
Series wins have been good, but look into the probable pitching match-ups in the series. If a team like StL, Detroit, Atlanta loses a home series you bet on, go double the next series because they RARELY lose 2 home series in a row.

Pitching match-ups are huge and finding weather plays a factor...more with totals than anything.

Play Rockies -1 or -1.5 at home...play Giants +1 or +1.5 on road when underdog...unless it's AT Colorado!

[RollinDo]

Also back studs like Darvish, Scherzer, King Felix, José F., and Cueto.

[jjgold]

Rolls made a great post I would heed his advice it covers it all

[raydog]

without a working model, you are simply guessing and praying that your guess beats the closer and gives you at least a better chance of winning...

rolls, how many games you bet is insignificant...betting games where you have closing line value is key...in other words, if you think you can beat the closing price on every game on the board, bet them.

[RollinDo]

Rolls made a great post I would heed his advice it covers it all

Thanks JJ...just heed the fact that over my brief betting career, I am in the red. Last May I tripled my BR, but then lost is ALL three weeks after chasing my losses.
I've learned, but still trying to find how to make a profit from week to week. That's my goal.

[ProlificalD]

Coming from a guy just starting his 2nd season of mlb betting, you should not bet every day. I have been doing that for the past 3 weeks and it's cost me.
Pick your spots wisely...no more than 3 plays on a given day.

I did that one season...it also cost me when I rushed picks close to the closing line. I usually do 3-5 picks a day as the bigger MLB days...today its no picks for me.

Even the days you dont make any picks, you should still follow the games. When you are off for a few consecutive games its an uphill battle to read about what certain teams and players are dealing with.

[RollinDo]

I did that one season...it also cost me when I rushed picks close to the closing line. I usually do 3-5 picks a day as the bigger MLB days...today its no picks for me.

Even the days you dont make any picks, you should still follow the games. When you are off for a few consecutive games its an uphill battle to read about what certain teams and players are dealing with.

Great stuff!

[upscope]

Just bet dogs & you'll be fine

[jjgold]

It's all streaks too

Ride the hot teams

Fade teams on losing streaks

[remeedella]

sports capping isn't all about baseball! It's also predicting the next president or politician, there are lines for that too and the odds get dirty!

[RavensFan2k3]

Getting the best price. Yes, price compare on odds but also monitoring the market to see where odds are going. If the odds open at -105 in the morning and some sportsbooks move to -110 and other books at -117 or more it could be time to bet the -105 before they adjust again. Early after the line is released is when the line moves the most. Often the first hit on the line prove that bettors dont agree with line setters and it's never coming back to that price. Same with NFL when the favorite opens too low early in the week...it starts at -5.5 and ends up at -7 -130. Chance to get the -5.5 is gone unless someone gets hurt and the match-up changes.

A lot of bettors who are used to betting spreads make the mistake of not looking at money lines the same way because they don't see scoring that effects the line like a field goal, or a TD in OT (6 pts).They say --well if they win, I win $100. I think they will win so I'm going to back them for the $100 win laying whatever. Decide what % chance your MLB team has of winning and make sure your money line price pays out better than that. Is it a bet you love because you are up $1000 on the day and want to bet the last game on the board or would make that bet 100 times and expect to come out ahead in the end? If you love the Yankees but they are -380, you have to think they could win that matchup 4 out of 5 times or you are a loser.

Don't bet it if you can't get your price. That's the most important thing.

OMG what a great post man, I agree, especially with whats in bold...especially with the thing about you having to think the team wins a high percentage of time in order to place that bad, unless we're refering to spot betting. I hate when people will place a bet because they see great value(large plus odds) despite they themselves only see that team winning 20-40% of the time...but because there is such great value, the slim chance they do win, they place the bet. Unreal.

[jjgold]

The problem most of us get into with baseball is betting every day

As with any other form of gambling Stocks casinos sports betting horses having action every day is a losing proposition

[remeedella]

I bet every day. Sock it to me