The Best bet for the Belmont?

**Vegas39** · 06-05-14, 03:30 PM

bear lies again so much for keeping all his garbage one thread

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/2861769-bear-den-official-plays-all-sports-here.html

**LT Profits** · 06-05-14, 03:57 PM

Wicked Strong and/or Tonalist.

Odds should be good enough where you can play both to win.

**LT Profits** · 06-05-14, 03:58 PM

**ProPicker713** · 06-05-14, 04:56 PM

Rolling with CHROMEY! $100000000000 show on chrome

**ChalkyDog** · 06-05-14, 05:47 PM

If you don't have at least a small bet on Chrome you're an asshole.

**Easy-Rider 66** · 06-05-14, 05:49 PM

Originally posted by ChalkyDog

If you don't have at least a small bet on Chrome you're an asshole.

**LT Profits** · 06-05-14, 05:51 PM

Originally posted by ChalkyDog

If you don't have at least a small bet on Chrome you're an asshole.

If he wins he wins, I won't have a penny on him and won't feel bad about it one bit.

**Darkside Magick** · 06-05-14, 05:57 PM

No way California Chrome loses!

**LT Profits** · 06-05-14, 06:00 PM

The only reason to bet the Belmont is to bet AGAINST Chrome, if you think he is going to win, then the race is unbettable.

**Darkside Magick** · 06-05-14, 06:06 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

The only reason to bet the Belmont is to bet AGAINST Chrome, if you think he is going to win, then the race is unbettable.

Not so ...odds are 3/5 for CC....one can make a few bucks

**LT Profits** · 06-05-14, 06:08 PM

Originally posted by Darkside Magick

Not so ...odds are 3/5 for CC....one can make a few bucks

But you can't take 3/5 asking a horse to do something it's never done before. You CAN take 8/1 or better which both of my horses may be.

**str** · 06-05-14, 06:17 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

The only reason to bet the Belmont is to bet AGAINST Chrome, if you think he is going to win, then the race is unbettable.

You are right LT.

It doesn't matter at all what "you( meaning anybody) think" because nobody knows and there is no way they could.

Forgetting about him winning, there are horses in this race that will be 30-1. If they ran the race 30 times, some of those would probably win much more than once. Because of that, there is value in using those on top and in exotics.

Nobody should look at this like, he sucks or can't lose. They should look at the field and determine who is being overlooked and play accordingly.

Betting at the track is not about trying to pick 9 winners a day. It's about picking one or maybe two , thus losing 6-7 and being way ahead.

I know that you already knew this LT, this is for those that do not.

If they wander into the horse forum instead of reading about big schlongs or what pearls of wisdom seaweed spewed, they might be amazed at what they might pick up.

A good group of damn sharp handicappers in there.

Best of luck LT.

**Easy-Rider 66** · 06-05-14, 06:19 PM

Originally posted by str

You are right LT.

It doesn't matter at all what "you( meaning anybody) think" because nobody knows and there is no way they could.

Forgetting about him winning, there are horses in this race that will be 30-1. If they ran the race 30 times, some of those would probably win much more than once. Because of that, there is value in using those on top and in exotics.

Nobody should look at this like, he sucks or can't lose. They should look at the field and determine who is being overlooked and play accordingly.

Betting at the track is not about trying to pick 9 winners a day. It's about picking one or maybe two , thus losing 6-7 and being way ahead.

I know that you already knew this LT, this is for those that do not.

If they wander into the horse forum instead of reading about big schlongs or what pearls of wisdom seaweed spewed, they might be amazed at what they might pick up.

A good group of damn sharp handicappers in there.

Best of luck LT.

**GT21Megatron** · 06-05-14, 06:39 PM

Tonalist running on a wet track....shit matters

**LT Profits** · 06-05-14, 06:55 PM

Originally posted by GT21Megatron

Tonalist running on a wet track....shit matters

He is royally bred to handle any surface, which is rare for a Clement horse.

Pedigree Profile: Tonalist

http://www.anddownthestretchtheycome.com/belmont-stakes-2014/2014/5/20/5730672/belmont-stakes-2014-contenders-tonalist

A Clement that runs (and runs) on the dirt!?! Say it isn't so!

**yahoonino** · 06-05-14, 06:58 PM

I love tonalist ,,

**smitch124** · 06-05-14, 07:58 PM

Ill never forget the day I was at the track and a guy that was watching the race with everyone had $20000 on Holy Bull to show at 1/9 in the race that he broke down and Cigar won. This guy thought he was gonna get his $2.10 to show and make a nice return for 2 minutes of investment. Ouch.

**LT Profits** · 06-05-14, 08:01 PM

Originally posted by smitch124

Ill never forget the day I was at the track and a guy that was watching the race with everyone had $20000 on Holy Bull to show at 1/9 in the race that he broke down and Cigar won. This guy thought he was gonna get his $2.10 to show and make a nice return for 2 minutes of investment. Ouch.

**smitch124** · 06-05-14, 08:06 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Ya that was sad, but from that race on Cigar was simply unbeatable.

**LT Profits** · 06-05-14, 08:10 PM

Originally posted by smitch124

Ya that was sad, but from that race on Cigar was simply unbeatable.

Yeah I think that race was Cigar's fourth straight win and then he won 12 more to make it 16 in a row. And the wins came all over the world including Dubai.

**smitch124** · 06-05-14, 08:17 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Yeah I think that race was Cigar's fourth straight win and then he won 12 more to make it 16 in a row. And the wins came all over the world including Dubai.

Then, as a stud he was a complete failure.

**Slimpickens** · 06-05-14, 08:23 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

The only reason to bet the Belmont is to bet AGAINST Chrome, if you think he is going to win, then the race is unbettable.

Ever heard of exotic wagers?

**LT Profits** · 06-05-14, 08:26 PM

Originally posted by Slimpickens

Ever heard of exotic wagers?

Even there, the value is in not using him on top.

**Slimpickens** · 06-05-14, 08:29 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Even there, the value is in not using him on top.

Depends on your opinion of Chrome. If you think he's a cinch you can key in multi race bets as well as tri's and supers. How about the 1.5 million dollar guaranteed pick 4 that closes in the Belmont Stakes or the 1 million Pick 6 pool? No value??

**smitch124** · 06-05-14, 08:38 PM

Originally posted by Slimpickens

Depends on your opinion of Chrome. If you think he's a cinch you can key in multi race bets as well as tri's and supers. How about the 1.5 million dollar guaranteed pick 4 that closes in the Belmont Stakes or the 1 million Pick 6 pool? No value??

I can't see value when every Tom Dick and Harry is gonna be keying the same horse. LT is right either fade or no bet.

**Skidcom** · 06-05-14, 08:41 PM

From my uncle, going on his 7th decade of race handicapping, pretty sharp......."California Chrome, like nearly all winners of the first two races in the triple crown, has created the usual buzz going into the Belmont Stakes. The surprising element of the race this year is the size of the field. Eleven horses will contest the race, which leads one to believe that C C does not deserve to be 3/5, his current overnight odds. He's not put a step wrong so far, so perhaps those other owners are in for a surprise. None of the field has ever run a mile and a half, so the trip will be a new experience for them all. C C won like he could go on in his last two, and there's no reason to believe that he won't get the trip. The only horse with a chance to upset the favorite on form is Ride On Curlin, a son of the redoubtable Curlin, who could run all day. He was taken far back in Baltimore, and uncorked a four wide rally to finish a closing second. Often such a performance creates a false sense of a horse's ability to go on, Those of us who are long in the tooth remember a closer named Silky Sullivan who was the classical "sucker horse", always rallying but rarely getting home in front. Deponent thinks that will not be the case with this horse. The trainer sacked Rosario and gave the ride to Hall of Famer J L Velasquez. He knows his way around Belmont, having led the riders there many times, importantly in stakes races. The rest of the field are just out for exercise and a hope of snagging a portion of the purse. Suggested wager: 10 units win on Ride on Curlin, 5 unit exacta box, Ride On Curlin/ California Chrome."

**Slimpickens** · 06-05-14, 08:41 PM

Originally posted by smitch124

I can't see value when every Tom Dick and Harry is gonna be keying the same horse. LT is right either fade or no bet.

Yea, the guy that plays the horses 5 days a week year round is wrong and the guy that probably plays 4 days a year is right. Ok.

**smitch124** · 06-05-14, 08:45 PM

Originally posted by Slimpickens

Yea, the guy that plays the horses 5 days a week year round is wrong and the guy that probably plays 4 days a year is right. Ok.

You bet the horses 5 days a week and key big favs in pick3s and pick 6s??? Give me a break. You know nothing about my horse betting knowledge, but yours my friend is very suspect by that very statement.

**LT Profits** · 06-05-14, 08:56 PM

Originally posted by Slimpickens

Depends on your opinion of Chrome. If you think he's a cinch you can key in multi race bets as well as tri's and supers. How about the 1.5 million dollar guaranteed pick 4 that closes in the Belmont Stakes or the 1 million Pick 6 pool? No value??

The problem is not only do i NOT think he is a cinch, I don't even think he will win. So beginning with that premise, there is no reason to use him on top of anything.

**Slimpickens** · 06-05-14, 09:01 PM

I did say 1.5 MILLION Guaranteed Pool in the pick 4, races 8-11. The 2 turf races in the sequence are wide open. The Met Mile may or may not be depending on your opinion of favored Palice Malice.

Go check the results for the best bet in horse racing, Belmont Park's early pick 5 this meeting. Even if you get a big favorite or 2 can still pay giant. Today's early pick 5 for example paid over 5 dimes for 1 dollar with a $4.70 horse in the 4th race. Biggest price in the sequence was $21.80.

**Slimpickens** · 06-05-14, 09:02 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

The problem is not only do i NOT think he is a cinch, I don't even think he will win. So beginning with that premise, there is no reason to use him on top of anything.

That's fine I dont think he is a cinch at all either. Just saying if someone thought he was there is potential serious value there as a strong single.

**Slimpickens** · 06-05-14, 09:09 PM

How about Wednesdays early pick 5 for an even better example. 4 favorites won and one 50-1 shot wins in the sequence and the pick 5 pays well over 3 dimes for a buck. No value.

**jjgold** · 06-05-14, 09:26 PM

No bet

Horses bad news

Just watch and enjoy

**cutchemist42** · 06-05-14, 09:44 PM

Originally posted by str

You are right LT.

It doesn't matter at all what "you( meaning anybody) think" because nobody knows and there is no way they could.

Forgetting about him winning, there are horses in this race that will be 30-1. If they ran the race 30 times, some of those would probably win much more than once. Because of that, there is value in using those on top and in exotics.

Nobody should look at this like, he sucks or can't lose. They should look at the field and determine who is being overlooked and play accordingly.

Betting at the track is not about trying to pick 9 winners a day. It's about picking one or maybe two , thus losing 6-7 and being way ahead.

I know that you already knew this LT, this is for those that do not.

If they wander into the horse forum instead of reading about big schlongs or what pearls of wisdom seaweed spewed, they might be amazed at what they might pick up.

A good group of damn sharp handicappers in there.

Best of luck LT.

Great post by str, he honestly has helped me a lot over the past year, and his assessment here is good. There's going to be value with lots of dumb money not knowing that 3/5 on a horse who has never tried this distance before is bad.

It's why I'm considering a play against the Chrome, or simply skipping it and cheering for the horse because I simply want him to win.