Holly Holm at +EV vs. Ronda Rousey in a rematch

**GzaTheGenius** · 01-21-16, 09:07 PM

Who's home?

**ACoochy** · 01-21-16, 09:12 PM

Originally posted by GzaTheGenius

Who's home?

+1

Almost looks like 5D

**Russian Rocket** · 01-21-16, 09:15 PM

5D it is

**ACoochy** · 01-21-16, 09:26 PM

**Kermit** · 01-21-16, 09:31 PM

Some book had lines for the rematch right after the first fight and had Rousey at -400.

**KVB** · 01-21-16, 09:42 PM

I see she's even money but is it +EV?

It seems to me that Rousey fought like someone getting out to do movies. Before the fight, Rousey said she was taking a break. Rousey tried to box a bit with Holm, it seems, and she had to know that was a bad idea.

Rousey gets popped, misses a few times, delays when turning...she tried it early in the fight and Holm didn't respond, then gets kicked.

Rousey far more marketable than Holm, to a harder to reach audience...in my opinion.

You may be right comrade, but expected value is not to be taken lightly...that can be more expensive than free drinks at the craps table.

**Russian Rocket** · 01-21-16, 09:48 PM

Never played craps in my entire life...but free drinks sounds like fun, comrade KVB

Rousey is mentally broken...a year or 5 years off is not gonna make the difference here...we all know that the only way she wins this fight is if she somehow submits Holm -- that's her one and only chance.

There is a plus EV written all over that line, comrade

**Kermit** · 01-21-16, 09:50 PM

Rousey is only more marketable because she is a shit talker.

**KVB** · 01-21-16, 10:25 PM

Originally posted by Russian Rocket

Never played craps in my entire life...but free drinks sounds like fun, comrade KVB

Rousey is mentally broken...a year or 5 years off is not gonna make the difference here...we all know that the only way she wins this fight is if she somehow submits Holm -- that's her one and only chance.

There is a plus EV written all over that line, comrade

On top of that, it look's like she's put on some weight and may have lost a step...

**jjgold** · 01-21-16, 10:52 PM

Sasha lets play dice in Vegas

I am always at dice tables

**CanuckG** · 01-21-16, 11:03 PM

At that line Rousey in a heartbeat.

**Russian Rocket** · 01-21-16, 11:17 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

Sasha lets play dice in Vegas

I am always at dice tables

No can do coach...I don't play any casino games...no dice, no cards, no roulette...no nothing...ever.
Doing strictly sportsbook...always.

**Booya711** · 01-21-16, 11:34 PM

Originally posted by Russian Rocket

No can do coach...I don't play any casino games...no dice, no cards, no roulette...no nothing...ever.
Doing strictly sportsbook...always.

**Russian Rocket** · 01-21-16, 11:34 PM

Originally posted by Booya711

...but now that Booya got his own place over there, we might do a little poker tourney at his crib one of this days

**GunShard** · 01-22-16, 01:56 AM

I took the +100 a few weeks ago.
This fight should most likely happen at UFC 200.

**Russian Rocket** · 01-22-16, 08:00 AM

Originally posted by GunShard

I took the +100 a few weeks ago.
This fight should most likely happen at UFC 200.

Gunner hopefully Miesha doesn't kick Holly's ass...then we'll be in serious trouble with our +EV play

**GunShard** · 01-22-16, 08:12 AM

Originally posted by Russian Rocket

Gunner hopefully Miesha doesn't kick Holly's ass...then we'll be in serious trouble with our +EV play

Yep lol.

**Russian Rocket** · 01-22-16, 08:18 AM

Originally posted by GunShard

Yep lol.

**El Nino** · 01-22-16, 08:29 AM

I doubt Rousey comes back.

**Russian Rocket** · 01-22-16, 08:34 AM

Originally posted by El Nino

I doubt Rousey comes back.

If she does, Holly will more than likely retire her for good

**jjgold** · 01-22-16, 09:41 AM

Holly will just fade away

That loss killed her even $$$$ out of the ring

**JC2008** · 01-22-16, 02:48 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

Holly will just fade away

That loss killed her even $$$$ out of the ring

You mean Ronda? Holly ain't going nowhere!

**Kermit** · 01-22-16, 02:54 PM

Originally posted by GunShard

I took the +100 a few weeks ago.
This fight should most likely happen at UFC 200.

From what I've been reading it is most likely going to happen this fall.

**Kermit** · 01-22-16, 02:55 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

Holly will just fade away

That loss killed her even $$$$ out of the ring

WTF are you talking about?

**sweethook** · 01-22-16, 06:57 PM

iam thinking same out come as last fight

**capone1899** · 01-22-16, 08:04 PM

You missed the boat, chief. Should have took Holm when it opened at +250, or when it was +150,or when it was +135, or +130. Taking it now is just placing a bet after the entire market has shifted. That is not +EV

**Russian Rocket** · 01-22-16, 08:27 PM

Originally posted by capone1899

You missed the boat, chief. Should have took Holm when it opened at +250, or when it was +150,or when it was +135, or +130. Taking it now is just placing a bet after the entire market has shifted. That is not +EV

This is a very first time I see this line open in my book...I'm cool with having a half a cookie chief

Next time don't be shy and throw a thread in PT about +250 play on Holm - so we can all jump on that shit

**capone1899** · 01-22-16, 10:09 PM

Originally posted by Russian Rocket

This is a very first time I see this line open in my book...I'm cool with having a half a cookie chief

Next time don't be shy and throw a thread in PT about +250 play on Holm - so we can all jump on that shit

What book do you play at? The line opened for the rematch the day after the first fight. Been going down since

**Russian Rocket** · 01-22-16, 10:22 PM

Originally posted by capone1899

What book do you play at? The line opened for the rematch the day after the first fight. Been going down since

I've got more than one that I use...but this particular one is from 5Dimes

**Russian Rocket** · 01-22-16, 10:26 PM

What book had the line open all this time for the rematch since the day after the first fight?

**Kermit** · 01-22-16, 10:35 PM

Originally posted by Russian Rocket

What book had the line open all this time for the rematch since the day after the first fight?

I am not 100% sure, but I think it was the Golden Nugget that had Rousey -400 back in November.

**Russian Rocket** · 01-22-16, 10:58 PM

Originally posted by Kermit

I am not 100% sure, but I think it was the Golden Nugget that had Rousey -400 back in November.

that's about 6,000 miles away from me....but good to know, Kermit

**Kermit** · 01-22-16, 11:11 PM

Originally posted by Russian Rocket

that's about 6,000 miles away from me....but good to know, Kermit

2,000 for me. We were actually just at the Nugget last week. Placed a couple of bets.

**Russian Rocket** · 01-22-16, 11:11 PM

Originally posted by Kermit

2,000 for me. We were actually just at the Nugget last week. Placed a couple of bets.

Where you live at K?