| Under | Over | Estimate | |||||||
| TEAM | Pts | Odds | Pts | Odds | Wins | Ov Odds | Un Odds | High | Low |
| Arizona | 373 | 245 | 428 | 165 | 9.5 | -190 | 155 | 10.0888 | 8.1858 |
| Atlanta | 331 | 170 | 384 | 165 | 7.5 | 115 | -145 | 8.5664 | 6.7326 |
| Baltimore | 339 | 155 | 394 | 175 | 8 | -105 | -125 | 8.9124 | 7.0094 |
| Buffalo | 329 | 165 | 382 | 155 | 8 | -115 | -115 | 8.4972 | 6.6634 |
| Carolina | 382 | 175 | 440 | 155 | 10.5 | -115 | -115 | 10.504 | 8.4972 |
| Chicago | 323 | 155 | 376 | 155 | 7.5 | 105 | -135 | 8.2896 | 6.4558 |
| Cincinnati | 364 | 170 | 419 | 165 | 9.5 | -130 | 100 | 9.7774 | 7.8744 |
| Cleveland | 280 | 130 | 330 | 155 | 4.5 | -140 | 110 | 6.698 | 4.968 |
| Dallas | 353 | 235 | 409 | 155 | 9 | 105 | -135 | 9.4314 | 7.4938 |
| Denver | 353 | 165 | 410 | 150 | 9.5 | 140 | -170 | 9.466 | 7.4938 |
| Detroit | 330 | 160 | 383 | 160 | 7 | -125 | -105 | 8.5318 | 6.698 |
| Green Bay | 379 | 240 | 437 | 165 | 10.5 | -160 | 130 | 10.4002 | 8.3934 |
| Houston | 340 | 175 | 394 | 155 | 8.5 | -135 | 105 | 8.9124 | 7.044 |
| Indianapolis | 350 | 230 | 404 | 165 | 9.5 | 140 | -175 | 9.2584 | 7.39 |
| Jacksonville | 335 | 245 | 388 | 155 | 7.5 | -140 | 110 | 8.7048 | 6.871 |
| Kansas City | 355 | 160 | 411 | 160 | 9.5 | -130 | 100 | 9.5006 | 7.563 |
| Los Angeles | 320 | 135 | 373 | 150 | 7.5 | 140 | -175 | 8.1858 | 6.352 |
| Miami | 320 | 160 | 373 | 160 | 7 | -130 | 100 | 8.1858 | 6.352 |
| Minnesota | 355 | 250 | 410 | 150 | 9.5 | -150 | 120 | 9.466 | 7.563 |
| New Orleans | 330 | 260 | 383 | 155 | 7 | -105 | -125 | 8.5318 | 6.698 |
| NY Giants | 355 | 220 | 411 | 150 | 8 | -115 | -115 | 9.5006 | 7.563 |
| NY Jets | 330 | 145 | 383 | 160 | 7.5 | -120 | -110 | 8.5318 | 6.698 |
| Oakland | 355 | 160 | 388 | 160 | 8.5 | -130 | 100 | 8.7048 | 7.563 |
| Philadelphia | 330 | 160 | 383 | 150 | 7 | 135 | -165 | 8.5318 | 6.698 |
| San Diego | 323 | 190 | 376 | 145 | 7 | -125 | -105 | 8.2896 | 6.4558 |
| San Francisco | 280 | 140 | 330 | 165 | 5.5 | -110 | -120 | 6.698 | 4.968 |
| Seattle | 385 | 190 | 443 | 150 | 10.5 | -140 | 110 | 10.6078 | 8.601 |
| Tampa Bay | 323 | 160 | 376 | 160 | 7 | -110 | -120 | 8.2896 | 6.4558 |
| Tennessee | 310 | 140 | 363 | 160 | 5.5 | -160 | 130 | 7.8398 | 6.006 |
| Washington | 330 | 180 | 383 | 155 | 7.5 | 100 | -130 | 8.5318 | 6.698 |
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Above is a table I made in Excel. My website has odds for number of points scored by each team (minus NE and PIT), and odds for wins.
The under and over columns are the point totals and their odds for going above or below. My site also has inclusive odds for the ranges, but those were left off here.
The wins columns are self explanatory.
The estimate columns were calculated using the high and low point totals for each team, and a regression formula between wins and points scored for the last three season.Comment -
Anytime the win total for a team fell almost in the middle of my high and low ranges, I did not consider the bet. Any team not mentioned below is in that realm, along with my favorite team, the Buffalo Bills, who I do not bet.Comment -
Team Reasoning Bet Arizona over 10.1 +165, under 10.1 ~ -180 UNDER Carolina over 10.5 +155, under 10.5 ~ -170 UNDER Cincinnati over 9.8 +165, under 9.8 ~ -180 UNDER Cleveland under 4.97 +130, over 4.97 ~ -145 PASS Dallas over 9.4 +155, under 9.4 ~ -170 UNDER Denver over 9.5 +150, under 9.5 ~ -165 PASS Detroit under 6.7 +160, over 6.7 ~ -175 OVER Green Bay over 10.4 +165, under 10.4 ~ -180 UNDER Houston over 8.9 +155, under 8.9 ~ -170 UNDER Indianapolis over 9.3 +165, under 9.3 ~ -180 PASS Kansas City over 9.5 +160, under 9.5 ~ -175 UNDER Minnesota over 9.5 +150, under 9.5 ~ -165 UNDER NY Giants under 7.6 +220, over 7.6 ~ -240 OVER Oakland Over 8.7 +160, under 8.7 ~ -175 UNDER Philadelphia Under 6.7 +160, over 6.7 ~ -175 OVER San Diego Under 6.5 +190, over 6.5 ~ -210 OVER San Francisco Under 4.97 +140, over 4.97 ~ -155 PASS Seattle Over 10.6 +150, under 10.6 ~ -165 UNDER Tampa Bay Under 6.5 +160, over 6.5 ~ -175 OVER Tennessee Under 6 +140, over 6 ~ -155 OVER Comment -
You could use Poisson Calculations to help predict the numbers, but there will be a significant amount of error introduced because the Poisson model does not fit well in estimating wins in a year.
Since I have done most of the homework here - it's best for you to now do the rest: read offseason reports on who had a good or bad offseason, check out strength of schedule, current injuries, new schemes, etc.Comment -
I suggest everyone take a quick read and evaluate.
Using the points estimated per team from a prop bet, I was able to correctly estimate team wins at a 10-4-1 clip, at +6.71 units. That includes the under on some big teams (usually over), and some overs on some teams the public was down on (TB, Det, Ten, NYG)Comment -
that is estimate team wins over the entire regular season.Comment