Roger Federer wins the 2009 French Open
Will R. Federer win French Open? Yes +1150
Will R. Nadal win French Open? No +270
You can throw "recent form" out of the window. Go check out some of Federer's recent play leading up to the US Open, he was not always polished, and did not expend as much energy as Rafa did in the smaller events, but that's irrelevant.
He is seasoned and understands his limitations, why push your legs to the limit when you really only need to be in-form for the major? The best players in the game do not "need" warm-up events, they're just another check in the bank and an opportunity to work out and have fun after. The players like the 30/1 shots need these tune-up events, and if players like that are out of form leading up to a major the cautious approach applies. That approach is inapplicable to a guy that understands how to succeed in the 4th quarter.
The entire tennis community with the exception of FedEx fanboys have already crowned Rafael Nadal as the best player in the world, what with his six Grand Slam Titles since 2005 and all. I get that he has been incredibly successful, and has an incredible pedigree at RG, as evidenced by his four consecutive victories at the event - - but he's simply overvalued here. He's overvalued much like the LA Lakers or NY Yankees would be overvalued, as evidenced by the fact that he's a -315 favorite to win his fifth consecutive French Open. This serves as a great example of how the betting public tend to completely abandon all form of logic with their overvaluing of players.
To display just how far out this Nadal-is-the-best-ever movement has come, take a look at the pre-tourney odds of Roger Federer going into Wimbledon each year..
Wimbeldon 2003: Federer +500
Wimbledon 2004: Federer +125
Wimbledon 2005: Federer -162.5
Wimbledon 2006: Federer -250
Wimbledon 2007: Federer -175
Wimbedon 2008: Federer -110
Roger Federer was -175 to win his fifth consecutive Wimbledon, Rafa is -315 to win his fifth consecutive RG. Federer never exceeded -250 chalk at Wimbledon, although he was far and away the best grass player in the world year after year.
I strongly believe Nadal will fall, just as Federer did. I will even go so far as to say that I am certain that, should Nadal fall, it will be at the hands of the FedEx in the Finals.
Payback's a five letter word.
Will R. Nadal win French Open? No +270
You can throw "recent form" out of the window. Go check out some of Federer's recent play leading up to the US Open, he was not always polished, and did not expend as much energy as Rafa did in the smaller events, but that's irrelevant.
He is seasoned and understands his limitations, why push your legs to the limit when you really only need to be in-form for the major? The best players in the game do not "need" warm-up events, they're just another check in the bank and an opportunity to work out and have fun after. The players like the 30/1 shots need these tune-up events, and if players like that are out of form leading up to a major the cautious approach applies. That approach is inapplicable to a guy that understands how to succeed in the 4th quarter.
The entire tennis community with the exception of FedEx fanboys have already crowned Rafael Nadal as the best player in the world, what with his six Grand Slam Titles since 2005 and all. I get that he has been incredibly successful, and has an incredible pedigree at RG, as evidenced by his four consecutive victories at the event - - but he's simply overvalued here. He's overvalued much like the LA Lakers or NY Yankees would be overvalued, as evidenced by the fact that he's a -315 favorite to win his fifth consecutive French Open. This serves as a great example of how the betting public tend to completely abandon all form of logic with their overvaluing of players.
To display just how far out this Nadal-is-the-best-ever movement has come, take a look at the pre-tourney odds of Roger Federer going into Wimbledon each year..
Wimbeldon 2003: Federer +500
Wimbledon 2004: Federer +125
Wimbledon 2005: Federer -162.5
Wimbledon 2006: Federer -250
Wimbledon 2007: Federer -175
Wimbedon 2008: Federer -110
Roger Federer was -175 to win his fifth consecutive Wimbledon, Rafa is -315 to win his fifth consecutive RG. Federer never exceeded -250 chalk at Wimbledon, although he was far and away the best grass player in the world year after year.
I strongly believe Nadal will fall, just as Federer did. I will even go so far as to say that I am certain that, should Nadal fall, it will be at the hands of the FedEx in the Finals.
Payback's a five letter word.
