Rachel Alexandra vs. the Boys at the Preakness
Rachel Alexandra vs. the Boys at the Preakness
As author John Gray once noted, "Men are from Mars, Women are from Venus." Or in this case, the female causing the stir at this year's Preakness, Rachel Alexandra, is from Stonestreet Stables in Lexington, Kentucky.
I have an old, not-so-politically-correct friend who says at the center of almost all quarrels between men lies a woman – or in horse racing parlance, a filly.
While I disagree with my pal, there’s no doubt there’s a kernel of truth to his adage with bettors gearing up for the 134th Preakness Stakes this Saturday at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore.
The 3-year old filly in question is Preakness favorite Rachel Alexandra, who was almost kept out of Saturday’s Run for the Black-Eyed Susans because of the backroom politics and jostling by some of the, um, male owners of the other contenders. They said it wasn’t fair Rachel Alexandra could miss the grueling Kentucky Derby and then enter the Preakness; and they tried to enter their second-string horses to block her entry. Well, the ploy didn’t work, with the obvious being Rachel is undoubtedly the fastest horse in the 13-horse field.
Rachel Alexandra is priced at +150 win the Preakness outright, and will be the last horse to load in the 13th stall. She’ll be jockeyed by Calvin Borel, who rode Mine That Bird (+500) to a stunning victory in the Kentucky Derby. Rachel is coming off a huge 20¼ length win at the Kentucky Oaks, the pre-eminent event for 3-year old fillies in the country. Detractors say Rachel Alexandra taxed herself in running away from the field, and will be tired at the Preakness, which will be her fifth race in three months.
A physical race will play a toll on Rachel, especially because that’ll be the strategy of the other jockeys with the filly as the fave. The Pimlico track is only 70 feet wide, which is 10 feet less than Churchill Downs. Riders aiming to jostle Rachel Alexandra could have their way.
If the race plan pays off the net beneficiaries are likely to be Derby runner-up Pioneerof the Nile (+450) and Friesan Fire (+700). The latter finished well back in 18th as chalk to win at Churchill Downs, and will start in the middle of the field at post 5. The question for those handicapping Friesan Fire is to what extent his brutal showing at the Derby was the muddy, greasy track, and to what extent it was the colt’s inability to win on the big stage. Bettors should keep in mind Friesan Fire won three straight races before the Derby, including a huge win over Papa Clem (+900) at the Louisiana Derby.
Watch out for longshot Terrain (+2500), which hasn’t raced since a fourth-place finish at the Blue Grass Stakes on April 11. Even though Terrain hasn’t won since last September – and that was on a disqualification to the top two finishers – Jeremy Rose is guiding the 3-year old. The 2005 Preakness winner with Afleet Foot, Rose also came in third with Hemingway’s Key in 2006 and Icabad Crane last year.
Terrain is a sharp play in a broader betting strategy for the Preakness that goes beyond laying money on the outright winner. At various sportsbooks, you could bet on Terrain to finish in the top two or three in addition to a potential wager on the horse to cash and take the second leg of the Triple Crown.
Finding the right elements to parlay or bet on their own is the key to a successful weekend wagering on the Preakness. Don’t like Rachel Alexandra to win the race? Maybe you’ll take her to finish second (+300), third (+400), or even ninth (+2500). You can also lay cash on the winning margin of victory, winning saddlecloth number, or a variety of three-horse matchup pairings found at a variety of outlets.
Prediction
My head tells me Rachel Alexandra is going to get sucked in by sprinter Big Drama (+1000), which figures to be the pacesetter – especially after drawing the rail post. Rachel is going to go out too strong to avoid being boxed in by the stronger colts in the field, and fade down the stretch.
Problem is, there are no horses in the field with near her speed. Pre-Derby injuries to Quality Road and I Want Revenge have culled the field, and after Friesan Fire’s showing at Churchill Downs, I’m staying away.
Rachel will find a way to outclass the field, with Terrain coming in second. Friesan Fire is set to have a better showing, and will edge Big Drama for third after the speedster runs out of gas.
As author John Gray once noted, "Men are from Mars, Women are from Venus." Or in this case, the female causing the stir at this year's Preakness, Rachel Alexandra, is from Stonestreet Stables in Lexington, Kentucky.
I have an old, not-so-politically-correct friend who says at the center of almost all quarrels between men lies a woman – or in horse racing parlance, a filly.
While I disagree with my pal, there’s no doubt there’s a kernel of truth to his adage with bettors gearing up for the 134th Preakness Stakes this Saturday at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore.
The 3-year old filly in question is Preakness favorite Rachel Alexandra, who was almost kept out of Saturday’s Run for the Black-Eyed Susans because of the backroom politics and jostling by some of the, um, male owners of the other contenders. They said it wasn’t fair Rachel Alexandra could miss the grueling Kentucky Derby and then enter the Preakness; and they tried to enter their second-string horses to block her entry. Well, the ploy didn’t work, with the obvious being Rachel is undoubtedly the fastest horse in the 13-horse field.
Rachel Alexandra is priced at +150 win the Preakness outright, and will be the last horse to load in the 13th stall. She’ll be jockeyed by Calvin Borel, who rode Mine That Bird (+500) to a stunning victory in the Kentucky Derby. Rachel is coming off a huge 20¼ length win at the Kentucky Oaks, the pre-eminent event for 3-year old fillies in the country. Detractors say Rachel Alexandra taxed herself in running away from the field, and will be tired at the Preakness, which will be her fifth race in three months.
A physical race will play a toll on Rachel, especially because that’ll be the strategy of the other jockeys with the filly as the fave. The Pimlico track is only 70 feet wide, which is 10 feet less than Churchill Downs. Riders aiming to jostle Rachel Alexandra could have their way.
If the race plan pays off the net beneficiaries are likely to be Derby runner-up Pioneerof the Nile (+450) and Friesan Fire (+700). The latter finished well back in 18th as chalk to win at Churchill Downs, and will start in the middle of the field at post 5. The question for those handicapping Friesan Fire is to what extent his brutal showing at the Derby was the muddy, greasy track, and to what extent it was the colt’s inability to win on the big stage. Bettors should keep in mind Friesan Fire won three straight races before the Derby, including a huge win over Papa Clem (+900) at the Louisiana Derby.
Watch out for longshot Terrain (+2500), which hasn’t raced since a fourth-place finish at the Blue Grass Stakes on April 11. Even though Terrain hasn’t won since last September – and that was on a disqualification to the top two finishers – Jeremy Rose is guiding the 3-year old. The 2005 Preakness winner with Afleet Foot, Rose also came in third with Hemingway’s Key in 2006 and Icabad Crane last year.
Terrain is a sharp play in a broader betting strategy for the Preakness that goes beyond laying money on the outright winner. At various sportsbooks, you could bet on Terrain to finish in the top two or three in addition to a potential wager on the horse to cash and take the second leg of the Triple Crown.
Finding the right elements to parlay or bet on their own is the key to a successful weekend wagering on the Preakness. Don’t like Rachel Alexandra to win the race? Maybe you’ll take her to finish second (+300), third (+400), or even ninth (+2500). You can also lay cash on the winning margin of victory, winning saddlecloth number, or a variety of three-horse matchup pairings found at a variety of outlets.
Prediction
My head tells me Rachel Alexandra is going to get sucked in by sprinter Big Drama (+1000), which figures to be the pacesetter – especially after drawing the rail post. Rachel is going to go out too strong to avoid being boxed in by the stronger colts in the field, and fade down the stretch.
Problem is, there are no horses in the field with near her speed. Pre-Derby injuries to Quality Road and I Want Revenge have culled the field, and after Friesan Fire’s showing at Churchill Downs, I’m staying away.
Rachel will find a way to outclass the field, with Terrain coming in second. Friesan Fire is set to have a better showing, and will edge Big Drama for third after the speedster runs out of gas.