Vegas Dave's Baseball Picks 05/26/09 (Write-Ups)
Roy Oswalt (-120) to continue dominance over Cincinnati Reds
Throughout his entire career, Roy Oswalt has been money against the Reds, and tonight should be no different. St. Louis topping Milwaukee and a Pittsburgh upset round off today's card.
Pick 1: Houston Astros -120 over Cincinnati Reds
Well, this should really read Roy Oswalt over Cincinnati Reds.
28 starts: 195 innings pitched, 23-1 record, 2.35 ERA, 1.09 WHIP.
Oswalt can simply do no wrong against this team. So far this year Oswalt has not factored into the decision in two starts against them, but this was due to lack of run support, not his pitching; he has given up only one run in his 13 innings against the Reds.
A few things have changed since those two no-decisions (the first a game that Jose Valverde blew the save on in the ninth, the second a 4-1 Astros win); for one, the Astros are actually hitting the baseball these days. But even more exciting for Houston is that they aren’t facing Johnny Cueto this time around who has been lights out all season.
Instead they face Micah Owings, who while very dangerous at the plate as a hitter isn’t particularly dangerous on the mound. Owings has a 4.70 ERA on the season and a 1.48 WHIP.
If the Astros can get Oswalt any support at all, he should be able to continue his career-long dominance over this team and pick up the W today.
Pick 2: St. Louis Cardinals -109 over Milwaukee Brewers
Last time Wainwright took the hill, I suggested taking the under in the game because he had made some changes to his delivery and was looking sharp. That under cashed easily, and Wainwright came one out away from a complete game, marking the second straight time he’d gone eight innings deep.
The difference? Pitch control. Wainwright is pounding the strike zone, getting ahead of batters early, and not giving free passes anymore. What’s not to like about that?
Jeff Suppan is a serviceable pitcher. He is the type of guy that goes out and gives up only three earned runs and gives your team a chance to win, especially if you have an offense like the Brewers’. In fact, in May he has done exactly that in three of his four starts, surrender exactly three earned runs. The one time he didn’t? Seven shutout innings against the Cardinals.
And that is one of the reasons why Wainwright is so affordable today. I don’t expect lightening to strike twice; today the Cardinals get their three or four runs, and that will be all that the new and improved Wainwright will need.
Pick 3: Pittsburgh Pirates +150 over Chicago Cubs
I’m a big Sean Marshall supporter, as he was in fact the other pitcher in that Wainwright under I was just alluding to above. That said, it makes no sense to me that he should be such a heavy favorite in tonight’s game.
In Marshall’s six starts this year, the Cubs are 1-5; no fault of Marshall, they just simply do not score any runs for him when he is on the mound. Than again, mired in an eight game losing streak, have they been scoring runs for anyone lately?
Ian Snell has by and large been more potential than production for his entire career, but he is still capable of cashing in a halfway decent effort every now and then. And the way the Cubs are hitting, why shouldn’t it be tonight?
I expect both starters to be good-not-great today, pitching around five or six innings and giving up around three runs. But in a game that is virtually a coinflip, I can’t pass down huge +odds against a team that has lost eight straight games sending an "unlucky" pitcher to the mound.
Good Luck!
Throughout his entire career, Roy Oswalt has been money against the Reds, and tonight should be no different. St. Louis topping Milwaukee and a Pittsburgh upset round off today's card.
Pick 1: Houston Astros -120 over Cincinnati Reds
Well, this should really read Roy Oswalt over Cincinnati Reds.
28 starts: 195 innings pitched, 23-1 record, 2.35 ERA, 1.09 WHIP.
Oswalt can simply do no wrong against this team. So far this year Oswalt has not factored into the decision in two starts against them, but this was due to lack of run support, not his pitching; he has given up only one run in his 13 innings against the Reds.
A few things have changed since those two no-decisions (the first a game that Jose Valverde blew the save on in the ninth, the second a 4-1 Astros win); for one, the Astros are actually hitting the baseball these days. But even more exciting for Houston is that they aren’t facing Johnny Cueto this time around who has been lights out all season.
Instead they face Micah Owings, who while very dangerous at the plate as a hitter isn’t particularly dangerous on the mound. Owings has a 4.70 ERA on the season and a 1.48 WHIP.
If the Astros can get Oswalt any support at all, he should be able to continue his career-long dominance over this team and pick up the W today.
Pick 2: St. Louis Cardinals -109 over Milwaukee Brewers
Last time Wainwright took the hill, I suggested taking the under in the game because he had made some changes to his delivery and was looking sharp. That under cashed easily, and Wainwright came one out away from a complete game, marking the second straight time he’d gone eight innings deep.
The difference? Pitch control. Wainwright is pounding the strike zone, getting ahead of batters early, and not giving free passes anymore. What’s not to like about that?
Jeff Suppan is a serviceable pitcher. He is the type of guy that goes out and gives up only three earned runs and gives your team a chance to win, especially if you have an offense like the Brewers’. In fact, in May he has done exactly that in three of his four starts, surrender exactly three earned runs. The one time he didn’t? Seven shutout innings against the Cardinals.
And that is one of the reasons why Wainwright is so affordable today. I don’t expect lightening to strike twice; today the Cardinals get their three or four runs, and that will be all that the new and improved Wainwright will need.
Pick 3: Pittsburgh Pirates +150 over Chicago Cubs
I’m a big Sean Marshall supporter, as he was in fact the other pitcher in that Wainwright under I was just alluding to above. That said, it makes no sense to me that he should be such a heavy favorite in tonight’s game.
In Marshall’s six starts this year, the Cubs are 1-5; no fault of Marshall, they just simply do not score any runs for him when he is on the mound. Than again, mired in an eight game losing streak, have they been scoring runs for anyone lately?
Ian Snell has by and large been more potential than production for his entire career, but he is still capable of cashing in a halfway decent effort every now and then. And the way the Cubs are hitting, why shouldn’t it be tonight?
I expect both starters to be good-not-great today, pitching around five or six innings and giving up around three runs. But in a game that is virtually a coinflip, I can’t pass down huge +odds against a team that has lost eight straight games sending an "unlucky" pitcher to the mound.
Good Luck!
