Laying horses - Starting from Feb-12-2018

**arie1985** · 02-13-18, 07:42 AM

Originally posted by arie1985

Race 3 in South Africa has lots of underdogs, some are offered 101.00 in Bet365. The question is if it's possible to close a deal on them in 9Wickets for a reasonable price.

Autumn Annie is my pick to lay.

**arie1985** · 02-13-18, 07:43 AM

The race had a delay because of the horse Modus Dancer who eventually scrapped the race and won't participate.

It's now about to start.
Good luck!

**arie1985** · 02-13-18, 07:46 AM

Originally posted by Foxx

Good luck today. Maybe I'll recommend a lay horse or 2 from Southwell later.

Sure, feel free.

**arie1985** · 02-13-18, 08:12 AM

**littlekona** · 02-13-18, 08:13 AM

Originally posted by arie1985

Sure, feel free.

Arie...Please stop blindly laying these huge longshots....focus more on low priced ML favs that are drifters...you can get many at under 5.0 odds....Another thing I do is parlay on lays I try to hit 4 in a row then start back at my base price...Again I'm looking at lower priced under 5.0 odds...try it
Here is something that may help too Free international track PP's link look at that please...

Access Denied

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/cc_trkreport.cgi?repcode=osa

**arie1985** · 02-13-18, 08:15 AM

Originally posted by littlekona

Arie...Please stop blindly laying these huge longshots....focus more on low priced ML favs that are drifters...you can get any at under 5.0 odds....
Here is something that may help too Free international track PP's link look at that please...
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/cc_tr...gi?repcode=osa

When I'm trying to click on this link it says "Access Denied" - do you know why?

**littlekona** · 02-13-18, 08:22 AM

Originally posted by arie1985

When I'm trying to click on this link it says "Access Denied" - do you know why?

not sure it works for me ...are you in usa? try google "brisnet free international past performances" ..it should be top search entry

try this

Access Denied

https://www.brisnet.com/product/past-performances/OSA

**arie1985** · 02-13-18, 08:29 AM

Originally posted by littlekona

not sure it works for me ...are you in usa? try google "brisnet free international past performances" ..it should be top search entry

try this
https://www.brisnet.com/product/past-performances/OSA

Still doesn't work for me ... can you give me the gist of it please, what's the info in this page? What is in there?

**littlekona** · 02-13-18, 08:44 AM

Originally posted by arie1985

Still doesn't work for me ... can you give me the gist of it please, what's the info in this page? What is in there?

it has free pp's for all UK IRE S.Africa UAE races....vpn from usa and it will work
here is another link u should always use has every odds

Attention Required! | Cloudflare

https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing

**Foxx** · 02-13-18, 08:53 AM

I do like the favorite #3 Shenanigans to take the 6th race at Vaal.

**arie1985** · 02-13-18, 09:19 AM

I'm not with my PC now. Bet placed through mobile against Monzino in the 1st swell race. To win 20.

**littlekona** · 02-13-18, 10:41 AM

Originally posted by arie1985

The race had a delay because of the horse Modus Dancer who eventually scrapped the race and won't participate.

It's now about to start.
Good luck!

wow 3700 Euro to win 9....i have no words I can say im speechless esp after what happened yesterday....

**Easy-Rider 66** · 02-13-18, 10:52 AM

Originally posted by littlekona

wow 3700 Euro to win 9....i have no words I can say im speechless esp after what happened yesterday....

Unreal

**Foxx** · 02-13-18, 10:58 AM

Originally posted by littlekona

wow 3700 Euro to win 9....i have no words I can say im speechless esp after what happened yesterday....

I would've been ok with 250/1 or less. 400 was a bit high. Anyone see what the starting price was?

**jjgold** · 02-13-18, 11:00 AM

forget laying horses

Disaster

**littlekona** · 02-13-18, 11:05 AM

Originally posted by Foxx

I would've been ok with 250/1 or less. 400 was a bit high. Anyone see what the starting price was?

Foxx...tell him please how bad a wagering strategy that is...maybe he listens to you...There are so many horses that are under 10-1 that have slim slim chance that u can lay as long as u do a little study...I love laying but come on now,,,be smart

**arie1985** · 02-13-18, 11:36 AM

Originally posted by arie1985

I'm not with my PC now. Bet placed through mobile against Monzino in the 1st swell race. To win 20.

Here is the screenshot I took from my mobile, I haven't placed any bets so far, the races in Southwell were too short and I hate betting on short races.

**arie1985** · 02-13-18, 11:37 AM

Originally posted by littlekona

wow 3700 Euro to win 9....i have no words I can say im speechless esp after what happened yesterday....

Yesterday was nowhere near these odds...

**jjgold** · 02-13-18, 11:41 AM

The value is backing long shots or laying big chalk

ALTHOUGH LOVE THE THREAD AND GOOD LUCK

**arie1985** · 02-13-18, 11:46 AM

Originally posted by jjgold

The value is backing long shots or laying big chalk

ALTHOUGH LOVE THE THREAD AND GOOD LUCK

Thanks!

**arie1985** · 02-13-18, 11:50 AM

Originally posted by Foxx

I would've been ok with 250/1 or less. 400 was a bit high. Anyone see what the starting price was?

There were people in BetFair & 9Wickets laying this one for 200 and it wasn't enough to seal the deal, I tried 150, 200, 250, 300 but nothing worked ... and I'm talking about 2-3 minutes before the race, where the odds are pretty accurate.

I also made sure this is not a novice horse that the bookies have less info on...

I'm trying to make it a long term ... if I'd want to double the money I'd simply bet the 4k in the NBA and not in horse racing and then I should have much better chances doubling my money.

But I'm trying to take the gambling aspect out of it and turn it into a sort of investment ... but I'm happy to hear your opinions -

**littlekona** · 02-13-18, 11:54 AM

Originally posted by jjgold

The value is backing long shots or laying big chalk

ALTHOUGH LOVE THE THREAD AND GOOD LUCK

I think there is value in backing some "chalks" esp at USA tracks where odds on favorites shorten late and at smaller tracks go from 1-1 to 2/5 late....Fixed odds is a "science" kinda ...But I agree with JJ laying chalk esp ones that are luke warm is the way to go long run

**littlekona** · 02-13-18, 11:59 AM

Originally posted by arie1985

There were people in BetFair & 9Wickets laying this one for 200 and it wasn't enough to seal the deal, I tried 150, 200, 250, 300 but nothing worked ... and I'm talking about 2-3 minutes before the race, where the odds are pretty accurate.

I also made sure this is not a novice horse that the bookies have less info on...

I'm trying to make it a long term ... if I'd want to double the money I'd simply bet the 4k in the NBA and not in horse racing and then I should have much better chances doubling my money.

But I'm trying to take the gambling aspect out of it and turn it into a sort of investment ... but I'm happy to hear your opinions -

I would try my method of where I take a base say 50 Euro and lay a horse under 5.0 that is a drifter and in a field where there are at least 4 others under 10-1 or so....if that wins I parlay and repeat 3 times...Once I win 4 total I start back at my 50 Euro base...repeat ...I look for horses that say are favorites in ML but cold on board....give it a whirl

or another good stratgies is lay the horse that the commentator on TV likes as his win rate is horrible LOL

**jjgold** · 02-13-18, 12:09 PM

are the pools the same for wickets and betfair?

**littlekona** · 02-13-18, 01:09 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

are the pools the same for wickets and betfair?

they are the same.....for horses its very good But sports and live side is weak with stuff like NBA only moneylines ect....There are many pros/market makers that have scripts that tie horse wagers in all the site i think like betfair and esp matchbook and fairlay as I see lines on fairlay move at same time and odds as matchbook...these are the guys making the money! they lay bet lay bet to insure profits total surebets

**arie1985** · 02-13-18, 01:37 PM

Not sure why it shows a $ sign, the account is in EUR.
This US race added 25 EUR approx.

**arie1985** · 02-13-18, 01:41 PM

Originally posted by arie1985

Not sure why it shows a $ sign, the account is in EUR.
This US race added 25 EUR approx.

I think the $ symbol is there because it's a US Race... I think.

**Foxx** · 02-13-18, 02:14 PM

Originally posted by littlekona

Foxx...tell him please how bad a wagering strategy that is...maybe he listens to you...There are so many horses that are under 10-1 that have slim slim chance that u can lay as long as u do a little study...I love laying but come on now,,,be smart

Honestly, it's not the worst strategy. I'll lay horses across the odds spectrum up to 300/1. Obviously, it comes down to selections and price though. I'm going to take a closer look at some of these races later and maybe have some more concrete feedback.

**littlekona** · 02-13-18, 03:01 PM

in the states the biggest long shots you see are normally under 50-1 stupid track tourists I call them always play long shots an bring price down....Arie should focus on the state tracks plenty of 30-1 shots that have no chance and in UK would be 200-1

**arie1985** · 02-13-18, 05:02 PM

Originally posted by littlekona

in the states the biggest long shots you see are normally under 50-1 stupid track tourists I call them always play long shots an bring price down....Arie should focus on the state tracks plenty of 30-1 shots that have no chance and in UK would be 200-1

I tried to lay a huge underdog in the final race in Sam Houston but it's very difficult if you try to get it for a "cheap" price:

I tried offering low odds and got very few matches.

**slayer14** · 02-13-18, 05:04 PM

Arie are there alot of people on that site you play at

**arie1985** · 02-13-18, 05:21 PM

Originally posted by slayer14

Arie are there alot of people on that site you play at

Yes, that's right.

Moving on.
I think I got a good deal on this race, the odds were 99 in TVG, then dropped to 10 on TV, and then went up to 67 in TV (in live TV through TVG). I managed to get a good bite from this one:

Waiting for the race now, good luck!

**JBEX** · 02-13-18, 05:27 PM

look at "explaining the favorite longshot bias - caltech" ..basically there have been exhaustive studiesdone that prove as the odds drift very high the loss is very high...these long shots are way overvalued and they've combined multiple sample sets totaling over 5M races to prove it it's a pdf or would've included a link

**arie1985** · 02-13-18, 05:29 PM

Originally posted by arie1985

Yes, that's right.

Moving on.
I think I got a good deal on this race, the odds were 99 in TVG, then dropped to 10 on TV, and then went up to 67 in TV (in live TV through TVG). I managed to get a good bite from this one:

Waiting for the race now, good luck!

Was the winner of this race an underdog with odds of 80? Can anyone please shed more light on this? I saw it with 15ish in TVG.

**arie1985** · 02-13-18, 05:30 PM

Originally posted by JBEX

look at "explaining the favorite longshot bias - caltech" ..basically there have been exhaustive studiesdone that prove as the odds drift very high the loss is very high...these long shots are way overvalued and they've combined multiple sample sets totaling over 5M races to prove it it's a pdf or would've included a link

What does it mean in simple words?