Laying horses - Starting from Feb-12-2018

**JBEX** · 02-13-18, 05:51 PM

Originally posted by arie1985

What does it mean in simple words?

longshots in horse racing all over the world are going off at odds way below what they should be..the need to get even after a bad day,brag to your buddies etc part of what makes them underlays even at big odds

**littlekona** · 02-13-18, 06:06 PM

Originally posted by arie1985

Was the winner of this race an underdog with odds of 80? Can anyone please shed more light on this? I saw it with 15ish in TVG.

he was 6-1 ML the price was so high due to GOTTHISONE HANOVER being 1-9 Huge favorite that happens alot at tracks with very small win pools like dover....

**Foxx** · 02-13-18, 07:01 PM

Originally posted by arie1985

Was the winner of this race an underdog with odds of 80? Can anyone please shed more light on this? I saw it with 15ish in TVG.

His odds were 38.2/1. The Betfair equivalent is 39.2.

Us payoffs are wierd and are a $2 base.

**arie1985** · 02-14-18, 12:12 AM

Thanks for letting me know guys, and good morning to you, I think I'd have to stay away from these races in the future as well.
The next 2 races in Australia don't have anything special, but the 3rd one in like 5-6 minutes is interesting because of no.4:

The question again is if I can get a good deal on this one.
Let's see.

**arie1985** · 02-14-18, 12:18 AM

I got him for 14 EUR:

Race starts in less than a minute, good luck!

**arie1985** · 02-14-18, 12:22 AM

Perceptive Miss wins the race, I think only these types of bets are the ones to go for here, only against odds of 101.00 or so, otherwise it's just too risky - what do you think?

**arie1985** · 02-14-18, 12:24 AM

Next one to watch in the next half an hour, but it's only 1000m so gotta be careful and try the odds next to the race or just skip on it:

**arie1985** · 02-14-18, 12:25 AM

Ay Tee Em is a young horse (2yo) and the form shows only 1 result, might skip on it.

**arie1985** · 02-14-18, 01:40 AM

The only next race I'm eyeing right now is the one in 1 hour:

The other races in between have good odds on all horses.

**arie1985** · 02-14-18, 02:19 AM

The odds on Vital Lass went to 251.00 in SportsBet.com.au - I've secured the deal in advance now, since the odds in 9Wickets are not far from the 251.00 - Good luck! (20 minutes to go!)

**arie1985** · 02-14-18, 03:29 AM

Race 9 which is the last race in Ascot for today seems like the last one to look at:

Race 8 is okay, but I don't like the current odds nor the description of the horses, one is 71.00 and one is 81.00 but they are young horses and I don't like laying against young horses.

Race 7 which starts soon is out of question, no bets here.

**arie1985** · 02-14-18, 03:34 AM

In Sportsbet.com.au - Race 8 in Ascot - Witchery Woman is getting much more respect from the local oddsmakers:

Countess Kinsky is the one that looks to lay if I'd participate in this one, still 45 mins to go so it's a plenty of time,but if I'd have to choose one to lay it might be No.11 or simply no bet here and I'd move to Race 9 to finish for the day with the OZ races.

**arie1985** · 02-14-18, 04:18 AM

I managed to get a very small amount laying Countess Kinsky:

To be continued soon with more info.

**arie1985** · 02-14-18, 04:24 AM

Okay, so before you guys come and jump on me saying WHHHATTTT - you risk $5,000 to win $15 or something like that ... that's crazy!!

Take a look how much money people were laying against this horse here:

This is before the race has even started!!

People were risking something in a rate of $2000 to win only $3, the odds in Sportsbet.com.au were also as high as 201.00 or 251.00

For me that's the best part of this - I'm trying to take away the gambling part and turn it into investment, and yes - if this investment fails then it fails ... there is no room for more errors now.

So please take a look at the screenshot above and you tell me if risking 660 to 1 is worth it not, and that wasn't me, I cannot risk more than 400 to 1 with my current bankroll.

**arie1985** · 02-14-18, 04:34 AM

Race 9 is the last one for today, huge underdogs and very old horses - perfect for laying - and I might just do 400 to 1 if the odds will be so terrible, still 25 minutes to go so I'm going to wait before placing any bet, that's my rule of thumb:

**arie1985** · 02-14-18, 04:47 AM

Odds dropped to 81.00 each, on both "Dad Said" and "The Danskter". 3 minutes to go. No bet placed yet.

**arie1985** · 02-14-18, 04:51 AM

Odds remained high on The Dankster, I was quite comfortable with that, race is on now, good luck!

**arie1985** · 02-14-18, 05:52 AM

1st bet for 1st race in Scottsdale, South Africa:

**arie1985** · 02-14-18, 07:00 AM

Interbet.co.za is a very good source for SA races just like Sportsbet.com.au is good for AU races.
I'm struggling to get a match for 320, got only partial match so far, looks like no one likes bad horses:

Or some people do like them but want 600 to 1 which I cannot afford at this stage.

**arie1985** · 02-14-18, 07:12 AM

Got it matched eventually:

Breaking Barriers won the race.

**arie1985** · 02-14-18, 07:15 AM

P&L so far for February 2018 (the negative balance is due to the big loss shown in the beginning of the thread)

My goal is to be in a positive balance by the end of February 2018, so far it's going nicely.

**arie1985** · 02-14-18, 07:39 AM

Interbet.co.za has this one for 81, that's good enough for me:

**jjgold** · 02-14-18, 08:02 AM

This is no different than taking real big money line favorites in sports

**arie1985** · 02-14-18, 08:26 AM

Originally posted by jjgold

This is no different than taking real big money line favorites in sports

The pools in South Africa are hitting $1m of bets just physically in the race track itself - also it's hard to rig these sports, you would need to bribe all the riders to allow the underdog to win.

In the NCAA you won't find many bookies that will allow you to bet those 1.01 odds and any other sports can be rigged much easily, there are tons of conspiracies about the NBA itself.

I would never compare horse racing to other types of sports in this regards, also by laying you bet on "The Field" (all the others), in basketball it's either team A or B, so it's a much worse perspective if you ask me.

**jjgold** · 02-14-18, 08:46 AM

What pools you looking at in South Africa?

**arie1985** · 02-14-18, 08:57 AM

Originally posted by jjgold

What pools you looking at in South Africa?

I see it live in TVG, they do tell how many bets were placed on each race approx.

**arie1985** · 02-14-18, 08:58 AM

Took this one:

According to the spotlight on this one from the Racing Post - Modest maiden under rules; unseated rider when 66-1 for C&D event won by Misfits 26 days ago and is even further out of the weights this time.

Sounds good to me.

**ichiro4thehall** · 02-14-18, 08:58 AM

Arie, great thread and good luck.

You are wrong about horse racing being hard to rig. It's the easiest and most rigged sport imo.

Sadly for you, the way you bet means the rigged results hurt you the most. The most common way to ''rig'' a race is for a horse to have 3 or so bad races so it becomes a big underdog in the 4th race. The horse then runs true in the 4th race and layers of it were cheated. The bet you lost was probably rigged like this.

This only needs the trainer and a jockey to cheat. It doesn't even need the jockey, a horse can be overfed or many other thigs to make it not run as well as it should.

I'd strongly advise trying a different technique. It is because you win so many times that this technique feels good but it's an illusion.

**arie1985** · 02-14-18, 09:18 AM

Originally posted by ichiro4thehall

Arie, great thread and good luck.

You are wrong about horse racing being hard to rig. It's the easiest and most rigged sport imo.

Sadly for you, the way you bet means the rigged results hurt you the most. The most common way to ''rig'' a race is for a horse to have 3 or so bad races so it becomes a big underdog in the 4th race. The horse then runs true in the 4th race and layers of it were cheated. The bet you lost was probably rigged like this.

This only needs the trainer and a jockey to cheat. It doesn't even need the jockey, a horse can be overfed or many other thigs to make it not run as well as it should.

I'd strongly advise trying a different technique. It is because you win so many times that this technique feels good but it's an illusion.

Thanks for your feedback.
Have you tried this method before and it didn't work for you? I'd be happy to hear.

Regarding the 1st loss - I picked a 17.00 horse to lose, odds of 17.00 are not that good to lay ... and I did it too far behind the race, and yes, could be some rigging there.

For now I'm looking at horses with extremely high odds, at least over 70.00 or so.

**arie1985** · 02-14-18, 09:21 AM

Originally posted by arie1985

Thanks for your feedback.
Have you tried this method before and it didn't work for you? I'd be happy to hear.

Regarding the 1st loss - I picked a 17.00 horse to lose, odds of 17.00 are not that good to lay ... and I did it too far behind the race, and yes, could be some rigging there.

For now I'm looking at horses with extremely high odds, at least over 70.00 or so.

Lingfield --> Pact of Steel --> was 51.00 --> now 26.00 - this one is to avoid, but you only know it if you wait at least towards the race.

And this one though seems a much better choice to lay:

Spotlight for Newtons Park: Cannot be fancied.

**arie1985** · 02-14-18, 09:26 AM

**ichiro4thehall** · 02-14-18, 09:29 AM

I agree that waiting until a few minutes before the race starts is better for you. It protects you from some cheating horses.

I do lay high prices sometimes. I have never tried to systematically lay high priced events just because they are unlikely to happen. Most betting markets are pretty efficient, and to beat the market you must know something the market(everybody else) does not know. If you don't then on average any horse you lay at 99/1 on Betfair will win 1 percent of the time and you will lose 3 percent longterm(or whatever commission rate you pay)

**JBEX** · 02-14-18, 09:30 AM

so if you had to render a guess how much more are you paying on average than the final pari-mutuel odds or fixed odds ?

**ichiro4thehall** · 02-14-18, 09:42 AM

Arie, you ever tried trading on horse bets? I think it would suit your personality.

**arie1985** · 02-14-18, 11:17 AM

Originally posted by JBEX

so if you had to render a guess how much more are you paying on average than the final pari-mutuel odds or fixed odds ?

You mean how much I'm paying above the SP price?