Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

**homie1975** · 04-13-18, 09:43 AM

i don't know how these articles and charts can try to predict we are at a bottom when we have 3 large things hanging over us:

1) trade war and tariffs still not completely settled

2) syria and assad need to be addressed

3) russia investigation not going away. mueller is on a mission and we all know what that is

**RoyBacon** · 04-16-18, 11:57 AM

Biggg up day. Lot of great earnings out there.

**homie1975** · 04-16-18, 01:13 PM

Originally posted by RoyBacon

Biggg up day. Lot of great earnings out there.

I've been holding NFLX for a month. i wonder why it's down ahead of earnings? do folks know something that we lay people do not?

**RoyBacon** · 04-16-18, 02:37 PM

Mentioned a while back that I don't own that guy. Have watched it soar for years maintaining an incredible valuation. So I've been wrong on it from day 1. Wouldn't own it. Too much competition imo. It's a $135b company that is projecting to earn $400m in '18, $650m in '19 and $1b in 2020. If it was half that price I would still not be comfortable. Buttttt it just keeps going higher...

**RoyBacon** · 04-16-18, 05:25 PM

Originally posted by homie1975

I've been holding NFLX for a month. i wonder why it's down ahead of earnings? do folks know something that we lay people do not?

+$18 NFLX Way to go homie

**homie1975** · 04-16-18, 11:29 PM

Originally posted by RoyBacon

+$18 NFLX Way to go homie

Roy
i agree w your assessment of NFLX and its valuation and am seriously considering taking half off the table very soon just to lock in the profit, maybe as soon as tomorrow. i am watching it closely.

**RoyBacon** · 04-16-18, 11:38 PM

Originally posted by homie1975

Roy
i agree w your assessment of NFLX and its valuation and am seriously considering taking half off the table very soon just to lock in the profit, maybe as soon as tomorrow. i am watching it closely.

I did read their quarterly.

It's a great report. Mgmt has made some great bets with content.

**d2bets** · 04-17-18, 09:56 AM

If current gains today hold, we'll finally be back solidly into the positive for the year. Now if Trump can just refrain from talking about trade and other nonsense, we should be good to move higher. Earnings continue to be solid.

**RoyBacon** · 04-17-18, 10:05 AM

Originally posted by d2bets

If current gains today hold, we'll finally be back solidly into the positive for the year. Now if Trump can just refrain from talking about trade and other nonsense, we should be good to move higher. Earnings continue to be solid.

Take the good with the bad. Those sell offs were great buying opportunities.

**homie1975** · 04-17-18, 10:08 AM

Originally posted by d2bets

If current gains today hold, we'll finally be back solidly into the positive for the year. Now if Trump can just refrain from talking about trade and other nonsense, we should be good to move higher. Earnings continue to be solid.

the trade war is not going away and i believe russia will address the syria situation AFTER the world cup ends in july. also, the mueller investigation not going away either, so i think we still have very choppy waters that lie ahead in the coming weeks

**homie1975** · 04-17-18, 04:19 PM

very strong session especially on the Nasdaq is now tempered by AH sell off. dammitt

**guitarjosh** · 04-17-18, 04:26 PM

Originally posted by homie1975

very strong session especially on the Nasdaq is now tempered by AH sell off. dammitt

It's only 1 day. We went up .87%-1.74% in higher volume, which is a very good sign.

**RoyBacon** · 04-17-18, 06:05 PM

I got the SnP down .09 in AH. We are getting soo spoiled.

**RoyBacon** · 04-17-18, 06:16 PM

04/17/18

Sold

CALL AMZN 07/20/18 2100 AMAZON.COM ...

469.95

Here's a fun play;
Sell short 5 AMZN $2100 July calls

That fugger gets to $2100 by July I'll eat my hat.

**d2bets** · 04-17-18, 09:46 PM

Originally posted by RoyBacon

04/17/18

Sold

CALL AMZN 07/20/18 2100 AMAZON.COM ...

469.95

Here's a fun play;
Sell short 5 AMZN $2100 July calls

That fugger gets to $2100 by July I'll eat my hat.

What's your potential win/loss?

**RoyBacon** · 04-17-18, 11:16 PM

Originally posted by d2bets

What's your potential win/loss?

I'm short 5 calls so my potential loss is technically unlimited and potential gain is $470. If AMZN is under $2100 in July I keep the $470.

But if AMZN hits $2100 I figure I got some huge gains elsewhere so it's not a risky play.

**homie1975** · 04-18-18, 10:19 AM

Roy
with so many things still in the balance (tariff war still open, syria response by russia possibly coming after world cup, and the russia investigation still going) i would be literally shocked if AMZN hit 2100 by mid july. keep in mind the world cup does end just before your 7/20 date.

good luck SIR !!

**Biff41** · 04-18-18, 05:41 PM

News reports about Wynn Resorts indicate they are resolving loose ends and hiring new female execs. L ikely senario is a pending buyout possibly by MGM

**homie1975** · 04-18-18, 07:02 PM

Originally posted by Biff41

News reports about Wynn Resorts indicate they are resolving loose ends and hiring new female execs. L ikely senario is a pending buyout possibly by MGM

Good info BIFF !! keep it coming!!

**floridagolfer** · 04-19-18, 08:43 AM

Originally posted by d2bets

If current gains today hold, we'll finally be back solidly into the positive for the year. Now if Trump can just refrain from talking about trade and other nonsense, we should be good to move higher. Earnings continue to be solid.

Solidly? Not sure about that.

For all the good earnings we're getting damn near every day, we should be better than we are.

**homie1975** · 04-19-18, 09:07 AM

FB plans to make their own semis, could this be the sole reason SEMIs are getting hammered today?

SOXL - a semi ETF that has a 52K high about $207, is currently trading around $140

ALL YOU CAN EAT BABY

**homie1975** · 04-19-18, 02:42 PM

international semiconductors down, hurting the market right now

**RoyBacon** · 04-19-18, 03:18 PM

A bit of a profit taking breather.

**homie1975** · 04-19-18, 03:40 PM

Originally posted by RoyBacon

A bit of a profit taking breather.

Roy
how long do you think it will take for SEMIS to come back?

**RoyBacon** · 04-19-18, 03:48 PM

Sorry homes, not familiar enough to offer anything.

I think we can have a soft spot here in this late April zone. Earnings are out and eyes shift a little towards rates and inflation. Next week we get GDP for qtr 1. Plenty of gas in the tank but could take a little rest while everyone digests this level of growth.

**guitarjosh** · 04-19-18, 05:56 PM

Consumer discretionary sector just hit an all time high vs consumer staples today, not something you're going to see if we were heading into a bear market.

**homie1975** · 04-19-18, 06:32 PM

the taiwanese semi TSMC missed their number and has laid off 1500 workers due to less demand for chips.

this fukked semis up real bad today

**RoyBacon** · 04-20-18, 09:24 AM

Men, it's time to pile into GE.

GE has weathered the storm. Pick her up in the $14ish area and sell in 18 months for $20 plus the 3% dividend.

**homie1975** · 04-20-18, 09:39 AM

Originally posted by RoyBacon

Men, it's time to pile into GE.

GE has weathered the storm. Pick her up in the $14ish area and sell in 18 months for $20 plus the 3% dividend.

Royer
that's a long time to wait for 40% return on such a questionable situation, no? so much can happen in these crazy times between now and Halloween 2019 don't you think?

at some point the tax cuts are going to drive up the nat'l debt even more because we have not cut enough gov't programs to fill the gap.

we are heading towards some type of recession within 24-36 mos it is virtual certainty one would think.

**RoyBacon** · 04-20-18, 09:47 AM

Originally posted by homie1975

Royer
that's a long time to wait for 40% return on such a questionable situation, no? so much can happen in these crazy times between now and Halloween 2019 don't you think?

at some point the tax cuts are going to drive up the nat'l debt even more because we have not cut enough gov't programs to fill the gap.

we are heading towards some type of recession within 24-36 mos it is virtual certainty one would think.

Your timeline is off.

Tax cuts are going to drive tax revenue but lawmakers will spend it. The gov takes in $4T in rev and has a $20T debt. You probably have a higher ratio. Guy makes $100k and has $400k in debt(house, car, ************).

I think the market is going to get very nervous prior to the 2020 election. A Trump loss will mean the end to a pro business government.

We are in the 1st inning on these tax cuts working their way into corp profits. So if it's clear Trump will lose I'd expect a down market starting in mid year 2020. Whole lot of money to be made before that.

**homie1975** · 04-20-18, 10:18 AM

Roy
you're right. more like 36+ mos.

**d2bets** · 04-20-18, 01:06 PM

Originally posted by RoyBacon

Your timeline is off.

Tax cuts are going to drive tax revenue but lawmakers will spend it. The gov takes in $4T in rev and has a $20T debt. You probably have a higher ratio. Guy makes $100k and has $400k in debt(house, car, ************).

I think the market is going to get very nervous prior to the 2020 election. A Trump loss will mean the end to a pro business government.

We are in the 1st inning on these tax cuts working their way into corp profits. So if it's clear Trump will lose I'd expect a down market starting in mid year 2020. Whole lot of money to be made before that.

Close, but I think problems creep in a bit sooner. First signs of recession either late '19 or early '20. Market is able to see it 3-6 months in advance so I think you start looking for the exits mid-19 or sooner. I would expect new highs this year, unless Trump's mouth diahrrea causes problems.

**brooks85** · 04-20-18, 03:22 PM

^good to know

easy way to make money is do the exact opposite of what that idiot says. Not joking, anyone who handicaps sports or can spot a trend can not deny D2 is a mush.

Three separate occasions he touted nvidia and the stock crashed hard right after... lol he is the bagholder of the stock market. Repeats what he sees on TV which is exactly why the moron voted hillary and thought the odds mattered; moron.

oh and don't forget a liar too. Fake lawyer lol

**homie1975** · 04-20-18, 03:31 PM

good discussion fellas but if we remove the name-calling and listen to all sides, i believe we can learn things. by nature i am a bull. my wife and my dad bears. my wife thinks the market is going down, down, down. i listen to her. same thing with politics. i grew up a democrat. switched to libertarian. now i lean more republican in many things. i try and listen to everyone's point of view because i have met so many smart people who have diametrically opposed views that they both cannot be right or wrong completely - there has to be middle ground.

in this thread alone there are dems, repubs, libertarians, probably atheist, agnostic, and bulls and bears. just about everyone is smart. i am probably the dumb guy here but i am learning from all of you. i mean that.

**brooks85** · 04-20-18, 03:33 PM

Originally posted by homie1975

good discussion fellas but if we remove the name-calling and listen to all sides, i believe we can learn things. by nature i am a bull. my wife and my dad bears. my wife thinks the market is going down, down, down. i listen to her. same thing with politics. i grew up a democrat. switched to libertarian. now i lean more republican in many things. i try and listen to everyone's point of view because i have met so many smart people who have diametrically opposed views that they both cannot be right or wrong completely - there has to be middle ground.

in this thread alone there are dems, repubs, libertarians, probably atheist, agnostic, and bulls and bears. just about everyone is smart. i am probably the dumb guy here but i am learning from all of you. i mean that.

exactly, which is why I made my post backed with nearly a decade of evidence and 0 name-calling.

If you want to take stock advice from a lying idiot mush then that is up to you, just make sure you know who you're talking to. Investing your money is important, don't half-ass it in any way or you will lose it.