Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

[opie1988]

The U.S. economy slowed to a moderate 2.3% annual growth rate in the first quarter..What's more concerning is that the consumer spending turned in the weakiest performance in nearly 5 years.....Many reports are saying Trumps tax cuts are not reaching the crowd that spends money. No surprise their...

There*

[RoyBacon]

The U.S. economy slowed to a moderate 2.3% annual growth rate in the first quarter..What's more concerning is that the consumer spending turned in the weakiest performance in nearly 5 years.....Many reports are saying Trumps tax cuts are not reaching the crowd that spends money. No surprise their...

Post the article you are referencing.

This report is much stronger than everyone was looking for. Barclays was at 1.5%. They noted 3 major storms slowed the economy.

This GDP has everyone scrambling to raise their estimates. Even the CBO who estimated a paltry 2% last year is raising its forecast to 3.2%.

We are on track for GDP AND wages to grow in the 3.5% to 3.8% range. More than double Obama's and will bring in far more tax revenue than originally predicted.

[homie1975]

The U.S. economy slowed to a moderate 2.3% annual growth rate in the first quarter..What's more concerning is that the consumer spending turned in the weakiest performance in nearly 5 years.....Many reports are saying Trumps tax cuts are not reaching the crowd that spends money. No surprise their...

middle class drives the economy through spending, no question about it

[A4K]

The U.S. economy slowed to a moderate 2.3% annual growth rate in the first quarter..What's more concerning is that the consumer spending turned in the weakiest performance in nearly 5 years.....Many reports are saying Trumps tax cuts are not reaching the crowd that spends money. No surprise their...

I don't think the tax cuts are why people are not spending last quarter. Historically, spending slows down in the 1st quarter because people are paying off Christmas bills and saving for tax season.

[HockeyRocks]

Post the article you are referencing.

This report is much stronger than everyone was looking for. Barclays was at 1.5%. They noted 3 major storms slowed the economy.

This GDP has everyone scrambling to raise their estimates. Even the CBO who estimated a paltry 2% last year is raising its forecast to 3.2%.

We are on track for GDP AND wages to grow in the 3.5% to 3.8% range. More than double Obama's and will bring in far more tax revenue than originally predicted.

Yahoo Finance. Simillar reports at CNBC, FBC, MarketWatch etc...Yes, some had predicted a lower GDP, however, none predicted to weakness in specding...Not good going forward..

[HockeyRocks]

I don't think the tax cuts are why people are not spending last quarter. Historically, spending slows down in the 1st quarter because people are paying off Christmas bills and saving for tax season.

Economist were thinking spending would pick up because of all the Corporate Bonuses given out...

[A4K]

Yahoo Finance. Simillar reports at CNBC, FBC, MarketWatch etc...Yes, some had predicted a lower GDP, however, none predicted to weakness in specding...Not good going forward..

People reading far too much into 1st quarter numbers. Until major players start whiffing on earnings or the treasury yields really climb I am not worried about 2018.

[RoyBacon]

Yahoo Finance. Simillar reports at CNBC, FBC, MarketWatch etc...Yes, some had predicted a lower GDP, however, none predicted to weakness in specding...Not good going forward..

LOL ok. Just so you know you don't post a 2.3% 1st qtr number and have any concerning weakness. If anything, folks are worried about growing too fast. I think that is a libtard spin which is always different than reality these days.

[homie1975]

"overheated" economy ie growing "too fast" is a much bigger concern right now than lowered consumer spending IMO. people are spending money like crazy right now, especially on houses! CC debt creeping back up to record levels. we will have to pay the piper on this in the coming years as another recession within 2-3Y is a virtual certainty, but right now it is Go Time if not for the damn geopolitical bullshittttt

[A4K]

"overheated" economy ie growing "too fast" is a much bigger concern right now than lowered consumer spending IMO. people are spending money like crazy right now, especially on houses! CC debt creeping back up to record levels. we will have to pay the piper on this in the coming years as another recession within 2-3Y is a virtual certainty, but right now it is Go Time if not for the damn geopolitical bullshittttt

I agree. However, I think 2019 is more likely or even 2020 before the piper gets paid, so to speak.

[grease lightnin]

GL
we have many landmines next week with the tariff deadline of 5/1 and the fed meeting again so i am wondering if i will exit tomorrow or monday or try to see it through next week. too many big co's still have earnings to report over the next 3 weeks so i am not certain what i will do.

you??

Sorry for delayed response. Just saw this.

I am a proponent of long-term investing. I never try to sell at a market high. I am buy and hold forever.

I am not buying stocks right now other than regular retirement contributions and an employee stock purchase program. Outside of that, I am hoarding cash and waiting for the next big buying opportunity. But with that said, I am impervious to volatility.

However, for other long term investors, I believe 2018 is a good time to perform a bear market stress-test on your portfolio. Meaning: estimate your potential downside in a bear market. If it is too much for you... good time to reallocate.

If you want short-term predictions, A4K is your man.

[rkelly110]

LOL ok. Just so you know you don't post a 2.3% 1st qtr number and have any concerning weakness. If anything, folks are worried about growing too fast. I think that is a libtard spin which is always different than reality these days.

Obama handed off the ball and Trump's running with it tripping over his own feet at times.

[HockeyRocks]

LOL ok. Just so you know you don't post a 2.3% 1st qtr number and have any concerning weakness. If anything, folks are worried about growing too fast. I think that is a libtard spin which is always different than reality these days.

Just so you know, i posted FACTUAL information. You may not have liked it or perhaps you have a problem with facts...Which is it Roy?...I am 80% invested in the Stock Market. I want to see the market expand over time, however, i will not sugar coat things. Keep your name calling to yourself, you may have a more diverse thread...

[A4K]

I'm with Grease. Unless you need the capital in the next few years...hold everything.

[grease lightnin]

Just so you know, i posted FACTUAL information. You may not have liked it or perhaps you have a problem with facts...Which is it Roy?...I am 80% invested in the Stock Market. I want to see the market expand over time, however, i will not sugar coat things. Keep your name calling to yourself, you may have a more diverse thread...

I am on the other side of Roy’s opinion more often than not.

But he’s 100% correct about the number being a good one. 2.3% vs 2.0% consensus.

And like Homey said—more concerned about overheating. Interest rates!!!!

[HockeyRocks]

I am on the other side of Roy’s opinion more often than not.

But he’s 100% correct about the number being a good one. 2.3% vs 2.0% consensus.

And like Homey said—more concerned about overheating. Interest rates!!!!

Agreed, Interest rates, tariffs and what the President decides to do on Iran will effect the market going forward more than what our GDP is from month to month... Was not bashing the number, i used the word "moderate" as that's the word i read that several economist had used.

[homie1975]

AAPL reports Tue 5/1
BABA reports Fri 5/4

get in now if you think they'll pop. iPhone projections lower but AAPL Q1 numbers *should* be strong

[A4K]

AAPL reports Tue 5/1
BABA reports Fri 5/4

get in now if you think they'll pop. iPhone projections lower but AAPL Q1 numbers *should* be strong

We really need AAPL to beat or at the very least be in line with expectations. Too big of a DOW component to fail or we can pull back hard.

[RoyBacon]

AAPL will not get the attention of the major techs or industrials. It's a bit in it's own world so won't take the market with it very far either way I don't think.

In May I think we get a little less volatility and more sector rotation. We saw some hints of that starting already. More selling in leveraged areas like RE, pipelines, transports, financials and probably more buying in durables planes, heavy equipment, maybe even autos.

I am big in the leveraged area but won't be a seller. There is great value and real strong dividends in there. Plus, I don't see rates running away and hiding. We will not see 4% on the 10 yr. Could see 3.5% but in the long run the 10% dividends in the leveraged stuff will put more money on the bottomline.

[rkelly110]

AAPL will not get the attention of the major techs or industrials. It's a bit in it's own world so won't take the market with it very far either way I don't think.

In May I think we get a little less volatility and more sector rotation. We saw some hints of that starting already. More selling in leveraged areas like RE, pipelines, transports, financials and probably more buying in durables planes, heavy equipment, maybe even autos.

I am big in the leveraged area but won't be a seller. There is great value and real strong dividends in there. Plus, I don't see rates running away and hiding. We will not see 4% on the 10 yr. Could see 3.5% but in the long run the 10% dividends in the leveraged stuff will put more money on the bottomline.

Been seeing a lot of new equipment going down the road lately, mostly big John deere.

[d2bets]

AAPL reports Tue 5/1
BABA reports Fri 5/4

get in now if you think they'll pop. iPhone projections lower but AAPL Q1 numbers *should* be strong

NVDA reports 5/10. Going to be a blowout among blowouts. $226 now, I think will close > $260 5/11.

[homie1975]

NVDA reports 5/10. Going to be a blowout among blowouts. $226 now, I think will close > $260 5/11.

Great call D2. NVDA big enough to lift the tech boats w blowout numbers

[RoyBacon]

Here we go again...
+100 in the pre
interest rates slightly higher
gold down $8.. at $1317 this guy should be watched for an entry point

[homie1975]

and once again it is starting to retreat just one hour into the session. it just cannot sustain enough inertia after premarket bumps

[RoyBacon]

and once again it is starting to retreat just one our into the session. it just cannot sustain enough inertia after premarket bumps

Above the pre now. Buyers are in charge but we will see a lot of swings.

[A4K]

Market is treading water until AAPL reports

[homie1975]

Market is treading water until AAPL reports

plus fed meeting tomorrow plus steel tariffs start tomorrow

[A4K]

plus fed meeting tomorrow plus steel tariffs start tomorrow

All in all there are more negative possibilities on the horizon than positive ones. Until that narrative gets flipped we will just tread water.

[RoyBacon]

Just a little rotation.

New highs still at 2-1. MickyD's up $7, JPMorgan up, CAT up, and on.

Financials firm today, rates have eased back, energy on a fuggin tear up another 1% today.Good backdrop for a rally currently down 10.

Some folks who were left off the guest list are attracting some $. Guys like good ole ETP, up nearly everyday in April. Some sector rotation, all it is.

[KVB]

Looking at the beat up retailer GME. I have some less than $13.

I think, as a retailer, they will stick around and benefit from any surge in the video game industry.

There's a dividend to reinvest and for a value play looking to go out 5 or 10 years it may be a good individual play at these levels.

It's popped up on the radar again for me and I'm watching headlines and news looking to continue buying. I would expect them to get coverage at one point. I'm also looking into other info, some specifics of the stores, and I'll report back.

I don't see them going under like so many other retailers...

This stock up a full buck since I bought it and finally pulling back. But I specifically said this was a long term value play with a dividend so the uptick in price only means one of my algorithms to time these value plays with market movers may have done well, we'll see.

One point of bringing up the price now and movement could that be to buy on a decent dip. There are other factors, both technical and fundamental to share and even to teach.

Which brings me to the main point.

This thread seems more about a general, mainstream discussion almost regurgitating main stream media factors.

That's alright for cursory information but when it comes to the markets clear cut goals are very important.

I haven't read the whole thread but the recent posts seem aimless, apart from the general sense that some are long the market and hope some short term earnings stimulate a rise. From the last few pages I have read, it doesn't seem like there is a high level of investing IQ being shared.

I'm not trying to criticize to start an e-fight, like I said I haven't read the whole thread, but I know there are some in here with backgrounds. Let's be careful not to confuse the economy and it's performance with the markets. They really can be two different animals, separated long ago by policy and money.

I've worked in management in investment banking, I've worked at major firms both trading as well as asset gathering. I've managed retail brokers and what firms like to call "financial advisors." I've built and overseen portfolios of all types with all types goals...from accredited investors with venture capital to high net worth advisory services to mom and pop retirement accounts. I've built books at different firms with entirely new clients and little crossover.

I think if I start posting I may start a new thread. In it we'll build portfolios of all types, from long term conservative growth to aggressive growth to income producing portfolios with different strategies, including option trading.

Walk into a major firm and they think 10% year is some kind of phenomenal growth for a client. It's because they are constrained in what they can do and the asset gatherers know little about the markets. They pass the client to advisory services that don't know much more and will often settle for limited returns in order to place certain company driven products.

I used to train them, many can be naive.

Anyone posting any plays in this thread? What are you buying? What are your goals? Remember, the market doesn't have to go up for us to make money, we can profit in any environment.

One final question...Where does money come from and where does it go?

Very few understand this simple concept and you'd be surprised how few workers in the financial sector understand as well. They aren't taught by anyone, on purpose.

Throw some answers out on some of these questions, so I have an idea of what to look for investment wise and of the overall knowledge level of the posters.

[grease lightnin]

KVB you’re being cryptic as usual but you obviously know what you’re talking about.

As to your assertion that the posting in this thread isn’t specific.... those that truly know what they’re talking about most likely have a good reason for not giving specific investment advice on the forum.

Lastly, to answer your two questions. Money comes from Central Banks, and it goes into the economy, and sometimes it disappears when the Central Banks shrink their money supply.

[homie1975]

KVB
thanks for posting. i wish i had time to go in depth a lot more on my thoughts about the market and what i am doing and thinking specifically but i work full time and it's a demanding job so i can only post thoughts here and there. if you have time, please tell me your thoughts on these ticker symbols which i have found as some of my faves:

TQQQ -- will the nasdaq get its groove back?
TECL -- more tech
SOXL -- semis shittting the bed since TSM crushed the sector w/ the earnings miss. when will it bounce back? could it take mos or years?
AAPL -- earnings obviously tomorrow
BABA -- earnings 5/4

[homie1975]

KVB if you start a new thread please post the link in here so i can easily find it and i will be one of your regular followers

otherwise please feel free to change the narrative in this one and i am sure most or all of us will appreciate it.

thanks!

[HockeyRocks]

Personally, looking for big things from SQ when they report earnings after hours today...

[A4K]

As a derivatives trader, I am treading lightly until some of the Geo-political tension subsides. IMO there is no sense in holding large positions over night with my trading capital. My investment / IRA accounts are a different story but I have a much longer time horizon for those equities.