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I'm not in the 80% camp for the Naz, but I can see 40 to 50 by the end of the year. Then a huge buying opportunity.Comment -
Bulls last hope is the W (Double bottom) pattern here.......Otherwise Titanic
Interesting times!Comment -
Funny thing with the Titanic chart. Funny how the S&P has a way of closing right at important spots almost day after day. The Lineman has it. Its Hail Mary time here for the S&P bulls, or better yet the goal line defense has to hold at this spot before things get nasty and this game turns into a laffer for the bears this 1st quarter. its down to the end and things are looking bleak. A dip below 420 and short players will be getting the celebratory bong out for a big dip. That head and shoulders play in still intact and is looking more likely than not, I can only say that there is a stop sign at around 4000, but that might just be a blip on the screen as the S&P plunges. 2 more days to the week and 3 more days to the month, a rescue operation is needed here or even the people who don't pay attention to the markets will take notice.Comment -
Here's a nice, scary chart of the Nasdaq:
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So now Russia has attacked the Ukraine and the futures in the DOW (since someone mentioned it) is down like 780 points at the current time. The world is falling apart, gold has spiked, its all doom and gloom. Naturally during the next couple to 3 days, I'm buying the dip here. Yeah, at the open I'm selling 1 more of those IWM short puts with the $208 srike. Then taking a position in SPY Calls at the strike of 420 which are trading at about 6.50 this morning. This is a long shot gamble trade on a short covering squeeze operation brought to you by the trick, trap, fool and fuk you sideways crew.
The dow is down now, but I'm betting that it actually ends up on the day today. That will be a 800 point swing on the DOW, 107 point swing on the S&P, 430 point swing on the Nasdaq, and 50 points on the small to mid cap. Take your pick, the relief rally starts soon after the bell.
I'm taking some profits on my longer term PUTS in all the indices I listed above while holding some for the next few weeks and taking short term bullish positions that expire on Monday. That's the play I'm on for the invasion equation here.
I'll be back to fill in the numbers for the IWM PUT trade I got going on, and I'll also keep track of a short term SPY call trade that I'm gonna roll those profits into. The number will appear small because of my small initial position, but I think I can separate them from the larger bets I'm making in actuality.Comment -
Nasdaq positive today...lol
Getting delusional here.Comment -
All the day traders are gone that’s what happened you eventually get caughtComment -
Wave Bye Bye to your stocks and your portfolios.
It's going down down down!!
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Two things to keep an eye on...obviously developments in war...especially cyber war...still long PLTR CRWD & LMT
Commodities, especially Oil, Gas and Uranium will now go full send with Russian sanctionsComment -
Grabbed the opportunity to sell some Puts and collect very nice premium this morning. Market's making a recovery move (ala Pumper's call).Comment -
War by a superpower is rallying the markets. Lol. Setting up the suckers.Comment -
No apologies needed here, I'm used to being shyt on. I'm a slurry pumping fool after all. I'll just stay with my delusional thinking and warn you all about stuff I see coming. Atta boys and pats on the back are great, but I rather have the compensation so I can go visit the glory hole on my own thanks. Looking at all the indices I named, they all ended up slightly positive I would say. Yes, I played all the ones I mentioned via calls and for more than I have listed in my IWM trade. I've seen this play before by the markets and today I was the wolf. Stop being the bear and be a bull for a while after countless hours of research and waiting for the right time. This is only a short term thing as I think that SPY will make a close below the $420 level soon enough and that head and shoulders pattern will be in play.
So enough of the self fellatio action. lets see how that IWM trade I've been following went today with a little side track of the profits to the SPY calls.
OK I'm a selling of 1 of the 5 IWM PUTS I have left here with the strike price of $208 and expiration date of 3/21/22, for the price of $20.34 less than 1 minute after the open today. Then I subtracted the profits from the remaining amount of my money I have in this trade and bought some SPY Calls with the $420 Strike Price and the expiration date of 2/28/22 for $2.50. It turns out that the amount of option contracts bought is 5 with some left overs for the FU fund. The books are below as to how this trade has been going so far.
Bought 10 IWM $208 Strike March 21 termination for $5.65 * 100 * 10 = $5650 (2/10/22)
Sold 2 IWM $208 Strike March 21 termination for $7.93 * 100 * 2 = $1586 (2/11/22)
Sold 2 IWM $208 Strike March 21 termination for $10.60 * 100 * 2 = $2120 (2/11/22)
Sold 1 IWM $208 Strike March 21 termination for $13.34 * 100 * 1 = $1334 (2/22/22)
Sold 1 IWM $208 Strike March 21 termination for $20.34 * 100 * 1 = $2034 (2/24/22)
In play I still have 4 IWM PUTS with a $208 Strike March 21 termination at the current price $12.63.
So far I put in $5650 and extracted $7074 as of today. That makes $7074 - $5650 = $1424 in profits that I turned around and immediately bought 5 call contracts of SPY CALLS Feb 28 expiration Strike of $420 for $2.50 each. That's $1424 - ($2.50 * 100 * 5) = $174 of what I call FU (Fun Utility) money that I wont consider in the equation but will use doing nefarious things with in the most un-traceable way possible.
As of tonight I still have these SPY calls with 2 days to see what happens next. The SPY CALLS closed at $8.93 so that's over 2.5 times the start price so far. Lets see what happens tomorrow, but I think the rally continues to at least $432, $436, and maybe even $438 if things get irrational enough.
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Think the rally was the market's realization of the US's tepid response (no WW3) and that this will undoubtably slow down the move away from easy money policies (1/4 point March rate hike instead of a half point). Plus Manchin will be back on the hot seat when the Dems figure out a way to use this to support their Build Back Better plan.
I may be wrong but I'll keep buying these cheaper priced days.Comment -
Markets look to open down in the morning, about .25%. We will see a very small rally mid morn, then probably sellers will come in around two hours to the close. No way traders are holding anything into this weekend with the events in Europe.Comment -
Sell when on the buildup, buy when missiles are in the air. Happens...every...time. History doesn't lie. The markets are always forward casting.
Sold weekly puts yesterday and they expired worthless today. Didn't get too aggressive but with put premiums sky high it was hard not to take advantage.
A little surprised we held onto all of today's gains into the close. This market is more about the Fed than what is going on over there in Ukraine. It wasn't in the last two days obviously but will continue to be going forward. Sure, the war is going to cause volatility. That's a good thing for an options trader.Comment -
Yesterday was a confluence of the charts matching up with real world things telling me that there should be a bounce from a goal line defense going into the end of the month. The fact that Russia attacked and the markets tanked in the early futures market was just another sign of a big squeeze for the short players so that the markets could be back above $420 on the SPY by the end of the month. I didn't think it would climb to almost $438 from those $410ish lows just yesterday. That huge!!
So I went on one of those 3 hour lunches today were you have like 3 big pulls of that pipe on the way and 5 drinks to relax and talk to friends. Before I hit the road, I decided to sell all of those SPY CALLS I bought yesterday, and basically those IWM, and QQQ CALLS from yesterday. Sure they don't expire until Monday, and I was kind of expecting the market to sell going into the weekend because I can't believe people want to hold over the 2 days where anything can happen. To my surprise I came back to see that since around noon when I sold, the market remain largely unchanged. I could have hung on to Monday but why look a gift horse in the mouth, take the profit and bail I say. I'll probably be back to selling the rip late Monday if this rally last that long. Below is the IWM trade particulars and the side hustle of the SPY trade that was generated with the profits.
Bought 10 IWM $208 Strike March 21 termination for $5.65 * 100 * 10 = $-5650 (2/10/22)
Sold 2 IWM $208 Strike March 21 termination for $7.93 * 100 * 2 = $1586 (2/11/22)
Sold 2 IWM $208 Strike March 21 termination for $10.60 * 100 * 2 = $2120 (2/11/22)
Sold 1 IWM $208 Strike March 21 termination for $13.34 * 100 * 1 = $1334 (2/22/22)
Sold 1 IWM $208 Strike March 21 termination for $20.34 * 100 * 1 = $2034 (2/24/22)
Buy 5 SPY $420 Strike Feb 28 termination for $ 2.50 * 100 * 5 = $-1250 (2/24/22)
Sold 5 SPY $420 Strike Feb 28 termination for $15.42 * 100 * 5 = $7710 (2/25/22)
Profit so Far =$7884 less the $174 for the FU fund.
In play I still have 4 IWM PUTS with a $208 Strike March 21 termination at the current price $8.47.
In play Value $8.47 * 100 * 4 = $3388Comment -
i think today's rally was more than that, just a mini relief rally with some institutions and FOMO players, i also think Putin considering a cease-fire or even offering it is a bunch of malarkey or it's an out and out lie to get the Ukrainians to relax a bit and have some hope while also using it as propaganda to his own people so they don't turn on him.
imo he has zero interest in stopping until Ukraine is his.Comment -
A radio?
A radio is a great way (A.M.) to past-post sportsbooks in-game on goals in hockey. It's also helpful for past posting in baseball and middling (or gaining an advantage) in basketball.
Simpler often is better. Nothing better than a radio other than being at the actual event.
Also, NEVER doubt Wall Street to bounce back. Sometimes it's rapid (like the last two days and after mid-March 2000), other times it's a slow climb. But it ALWAYS comes back to reach all-time highs. The media loves when it has public headlines of "Market Crash!" But rarely do they speak to the public of all-time highs. Mainly, because all-time highs are not as sexy of a story as a "CRASH!" The media loves reporting bad news, but rarely the good news.
All-time highs largely go without conversation, but they happen much more frequently and consistently than steep plunges.
If you have money saved, always buy the dips, because history has told us that one thing in the market is certain: "The market ALWAYS bounces back." If you're out of powder, then just hold and don't even worry about it.
It's really simple to make money. Invest in the overall markets for the long term and you won't lose. In fact, you'll be very happy in retirement that you did.Comment -
I closed my longs on XLE UCO GUSH etc and ended up going short on UCO, I suspect Oil has topped but who knows...just gonna trust the chart and be contrarian now all eyes & retail are in oil and got FOMO last week...hoping for some good headlines tomorrowComment -
FYI Uranium spot, CCJ and UUUU also broke out...we shall see the next move but I know it’s much higher in the endComment -
Waking up and seeing a little red this morning in the markets as the futures were pounded down pretty hard over night. They are making a comeback however. As I bust out these crystal ballz to see what is happening, it looks like I was correct when I sad the rally for the SPY could hit $438ish. This morning I'm looking to add to my PUTS that I didn't sell last week in the QQQs and SPY. The sky high premium is the price to be paid for the volatile markets we have here. Its the last day of the month so surprisingly it may be a sloppy seconds day to last week's dump in the morning although I just don't see it as pronounced as it was last week. Sloppy seconds is never as good as the first one in so I'm looking to sell the rip if it happens and use that as another entry into PUTS for the QQQs and SPY with about a month or so to expire.
Eventually we could se SPY at like 3700 or so if the head and shoulders play goes like they are supposed to. That seems a little over done to me so I like the 4000 level for a pretty good bottom before the FED runs out to the podium to announce that huge 0.25% rate hike to fight that 9% inflation. Oddly enough this will spark a rally and change my stance from sell the rip to buy the dip.Comment -
Yesterday saw the markets start the day down then rise up to that $438 level on the SPY then it pretty much closed slightly down. The QQQ, IWM, and $DJT all ended the day up. There are divergences as the XLF had trouble getting going and to a lesser extent the SMH close slightly lower as well. It remains to be seen if the markets can still push higher from this point. $459 is the high I would say they need to get above for any longer term bullishness for the SPY. Before that level there are probably 20 different levels of resistance so I just don't see it happening but it could. I still think it is more likely that the market falls apart and we see another visit to the $420 level sometime this week. $432 is a nice level of support that held up yesterday pretty well but the second time around in as many days may be too much to ask.Comment -
Spx bottom will be 50-80% off all time high. Should see that by no later then August. EnjoyComment -
So the last couple of days gave the bears plenty of chances to move the markets lower and just like my first girlfriend, she just refuse to go down past the tip. That lets me know that the move is further up into resistance in the short term. I see a counter play developing for things Tech and other businesses that don't make money or have a dividends in general. Add the fact that Powell will be testifying today and tomorrow, and the crystal ballz are itching towards a bullish move here. I think it fails soon enough but on the day to day tape. It looks like maybe a move back up and probably above the most recent highs by Friday.
How about that State of the Union, I hate them all as they never actually say the State of the Union, but the hype machine is out and it is a war time scenario so its Ra Ra time to circle the Wagons.
I'm still gonna hold onto all of those PUTS I have that expire later this month, but in the meantime, I'm buying some short term CALLS in the IWM, and SPY, and I'm even making a individual stock pick here in the short term with PYPL all of these expire Friday so for PYPL that call will probably cost $2.65 this morning off the bell. That is just an estimate given by the fancy thinking box. At $265 a contract, I can gobble up an easy 25 of these things for only a typical 33% of what I consider a position. So the risk isn't that bad. Of course premiums are high but that is the price for volatility the sellers of these things need more of an incentive to offer them. I just pick the ones I like in the correct time frame that I think will work. I just don't hold until the end so I can pass on some of the premium on Thursday or even early Friday if things go well.Comment -
I'm not liking the look of things with Powell's testimony and the rally liking the answers has me lightening all my PUTS that are in play to nothing, the CALLS are working, and we even got a bonus dump on Paypal right off the bat. So those calls went on sale for almost a buck a piece before I grabbed them.Comment -
So I closed out the IWM trade started almost a month ago and lets see how the entire thing went.
Buy 10 IWM $208 Strike March 21 termination for $5.65 * 100 * 10 = $-5650 (2/10/22)
Sold 2 IWM $208 Strike March 21 termination for $7.93 * 100 * 2 = $1586 (2/11/22)
Sold 2 IWM $208 Strike March 21 termination for $10.60 * 100 * 2 = $2120 (2/11/22)
Sold 1 IWM $208 Strike March 21 termination for $13.34 * 100 * 1 = $1334 (2/22/22)
Sold 1 IWM $208 Strike March 21 termination for $20.34 * 100 * 1 = $2034 (2/24/22)
Buy 5 SPY $420 Strike Feb 28 termination for $ 2.50 * 100 * 5 = $-1250 (2/24/22)
Sold 5 SPY $420 Strike Feb 28 termination for $15.42 * 100 * 5 = $7710 (2/25/22)
Sold 4 IWM $208 Strike March 21 termination for $9.40 * 100 * 4 = $ 3760 (3/2/22)
Like a Catholic School girl at Prom, I put out $6900 in total.
Then collected $18544 for my efforts.
Total $11644.
Not bad for a month long trade.
I'll post up some more easy no brainer trades in the future as they make themselves apparent.Comment -
Slurry you are the man. I have to research and learn how to trade puts/calls. I know nothing about that stuff. Keep up the great work!!!Comment
