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Time to get some paypal?
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">WTF is going on?! <a href="https://t.co/xmsNBF4s7i">pic.twitter.com/xmsNBF4s7i</a></p>— AG �� (@Yolo304741) <a href="https://twitter.com/Yolo304741/status/1504267698557132803?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" >March 17, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>Comment -
CVSComment -
Powell came out yesterday and didn't decide to fight inflation. The market moved anyway like I originally thought it would. Lately I didn't think that there was enough of a capitulation but we may not get that at this time, or a delay of that bigger down move.
The VIX moved down over 10% yesterday and is bouncing off the 50 DMA, which predicts a down day either today or tomorrow. These 2 days will be a sign. If the overall market doesn't pull back most of the gains from the week, it may be off to the races for a while here. SPY, QQQ, and SMH are right at the upper bounds of down trending limits and if they hold up we will see a pretty big move.
The top Canary in the gold mine is the dow transports which took a rocket ride to the moon yesterday and is right up there near the highs. XLF shot up also and closed above the 200 DMA, basically everything all of a sudden looks bullish.
The Trick, Trap, Fool and Fuk you sideways crew may be in operation with a head fake rally, which is the danger of buying the rally here. If you are not a swing or day trader, I would wait until a shakeout operation with a few down days before jumping in with both feet. Oil also bounced off the 50 DMA and is pretty much done with the retreat from the recent spike. Gold is making big moves today which is another sign that people know all of Powells statements about battling inflation were just bullshyt.
I expect the commodities to continue to be among the leaders going forward so all of those recent long term PUTS I bought a few weeks ago expecting the recent spike to subside will now be sold today. Of course long term for me is about a month so its not like these where contracts for next year or anything like that.Last edited by Slurry Pumper; 03-17-22, 06:48 AM.Comment -
Timing & so called financials experts.
Spoke with my sister yesterday. Her and her husband are not hurting. They've lost a good bit the last 3 months. She said she had just spoken with their financial advisor, and he suggested they move into cash. I had all I could do to not barf. I tried tactfully to suggest that maybe she should look for another advisor as that would have been great advice 3 months ago. These guys are all reactionary and only respond after the fact. If you have less than 1-2 MIL these folks could care less about actively managing your account and simply are content on just collecting their .5-1 % VIG.
I suggested that I had been cutting some of my exposure for the last 6 months and was actually slowly adding back to some of my solid sold positions recently. Her response, I think we'll stick with our professional who does this for a living.
Subject change ...
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Anyone looking at JOBY?Comment -
Not quite sure of the time frame but think yoy. The average mortgage up 23%. Rising rates, overvalued RE market, This can't possibly bode well can it?Comment -
I may have yet another trade to share with you this morning. The SPY is pulling back in the futures market to right now about the $436 area. This is right around the breakout trend line from yesterday and it is a normal reaction to come back for a test of a recent breakout area. I'm a buyer of CALLS this morning if the market opens and then moves down to around the low from yesterday's candle of $433.5ish. Anyway that isn't the trade. That would be just a normal everyday day trade or a bone us for anyone thinking about playing today. I'm wrong on this trade if the SPY starts closing 10 and then 15 minute candles sticks below $432.50. If you take the trade don't be expecting to sit around until the market gets to $446, but that can certainly happen.
The real trade is if the SPY runs up to the 200 DMA sooner rather than later say by Monday and finds itself around the $446 area. I'm a buyer of PUTS that will expire in about 2 weeks time. If the SPY runs up to this neighborhood and hangs out just below the 200 day moving average for a few days, I'm not taking the deal.
Remember today we still have the VIX 10% move from Wednesday prediction in affect so that means today as history tells us we have a 85% chance of being down by the closing bell. I see just in the last few minutes that the futures market is coming back so don't be surprised when the market opens near positive, has a quick shakeout operation down to $433.5 area curtesy of the Trick, Trap, Fool and Fuk you sideways crew before it runs up to the $446 area to make us all feel good going into the weekend. If this happens I'll be taking the PUTS trade into the weekend. I'm out of the trade when the SPY starts closing 1 hour candles above $447.50.Comment -
- Joby Aviation (JOBY) announces the completion of its first Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) reviews. The company underwent a systems review and a compliance review at the end of last year, and the FAA just granted approval for those. Everything is proceeding according to plan, as Joby can now shift focus to its next reviews. Joby is miles ahead of the competition when it comes to scaling an eVTOL operation, and that’s why we absolutely love this stock. Stay long.
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Friday ended up just about how I thought it would, all the markets just crept on up for the entire day. The SPY never really got to my $446 target but it came close. I did front run the trade I mentioned for the morning SPY Calls and then about 10 seconds before the close I got some SPY PUTS for half of a half a position as a just in case things fall apart over the weekend. Then over the weekend I am adjusting the over all trade so it goes like this. I'm still a buyer of the second half of the half a position (about $3500) when the SPY hits the $446 level in PUTS except I'll give it until good Friday or April 14 is the actual date which will be Cha Ching Thursday I guess. Then I'll buy more in equal increments at the $448.25, $450.50, $454.75, and $458.00 which at the last level would give me a 1.5 sized position to manage The value of the strike will be moved continuously up, but I am also going to sprinkle a little bit of the shake on the lower strike puts as the overall markets go up. You'll see what I mean by "shake" when the time comes. I'm doing this in the QQQ as well because that market is weaker but I'm only keeping track of the SPYs here. It wont matter all the indices are acting more or less the same with little divergence. I get out of it all when the SPY hits and closes above $459.
So FAR:
Bought 5 PUT options at $444 Strike expires April 1,2022 for $6.71. $3355Comment -
Bought 5 PUT options at $444 Strike expires April 1,2022 for $6.71. $3355 (3/18)
Bought 4 PUT options at $446 Strike expires April 14,2022 for $9.13. $3652 (3/22)
Bought 1 CALL option at $442 Strike expires March 23,2020 for $3.42. $342 (From what I call shake)
So today is the day I think we see a near time top in the SPY and QQQ. We'll see if the rally continues up so that I can buy some more PUTS at the prescribed $448.25 level. I bought a call option yesterday in the SPY as a short term expectation of the market to move against my recent purchases. Looking for a little lunch money on that one. Depending on what happens today, I may be selling that CALL option.
Amongst all of this bullishness, I see some cracks starting to form in the relief rally but at the same time things can explode still going north is things just happen to break the right way.Comment -
Anyone still looking at SE?
I fortunately sold long ago 170-250.
I jumped back in 114 yesterday. Looks like a little bounce today.
Anyone else watching/thoughts?Comment -
Gold got a little ahead of itself with the Russia thing going on. While I still buy gold and gold miners on a regular basis, I am also holding some PUTS from GLD that I'm just about to cash in on. I think gold hold 1900 and inflation will do its thing and gold will creep up over the year. I think it finishes the year at new highs but only at $2200 or so.
Just sold my token CALLS for SPY at $6.13 a few minutes ago so I can buy lunch.Comment -
made some damn good money today on GME and AMC
this is why i laugh when I lose a few units betting sportsComment -
I continue to build my PUTS position as the market goes up while on a daily basis buying CALLS that expire that day or the next to hedge the short term. Yesterday was no different, and 2 more of my numbers were hit.
Bought 5 SPY PUT options at $444 Strike expires April 1,2022 for $6.71. -$3355 (3/18)
Bought 4 SPY PUT options at $446 Strike expires April 14,2022 for $9.13. -$3652 (3/22)
Bought 1 SPY CALL option at $442 Strike expires March 23,2022 for $3.42. -$342 (From what I call shake 3/21)
Sold 1 SPY CALL option @442 Strike expires March 23,2022 for $6.13. +$613 (Sold that first shake 3/22)
Bought 4 SPY PUT options at $448 Strike expires April 14, 2022 for $8.65. -$3460 (3/22)
Bought 4 SPY PUT options at $450 Strike expires April 14,2022 for $8.27. -$3308 (3/22)
Bought 1 SPY PUT option at $446 Strike expires April 14,2022 for $7.19. -$719 (3/22, shake left over from prev. buys)
-$14,836 into it so far.
+$ 613 return so far.
-$14,223 Profit so far.
Alrighty, all the markets are at about as high as I thought they might get, while I still have 2 buying chances left at $454.75, and again at $458. I can also argue that maybe there should be a spot right around $452.50ish as well, but for now I'll just see what happens and how the overall market looks before I pull that trigger.
The SPY, QQQ, IWM, and XLF are all down here early in the morning. The VIX is bouncing off of the 100 DMA with the stochastics all the way about as low as it could go but turning up while those same stochastics are rolling over in the index indicators I watch. We may be in for the start of the dump here. If so $434 on the SPY, 330 on the QQQ, 202 in the IWM, 258 on the SMH, and now 38.45 on the XLF are all number to watch for a bounce. Not saying they all get there today or tomorrow, just saying those are important spots for if and when the market bull run starts to peter out and pull back a little bit.
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Cloud resisted the price so far. We could be forming an inverted right shoulder here? If that's the case, maybe a good time working on a list for some longs. Waiting for sunny days!!!Comment -
Can SLV stay on its path and reach 30 by June?Comment -
I see your point there, and I may have spent the last couple of 3 to 4 days buying PUTS, only to cut and run if things look like this is just a regular pullback. Today, we had a down day and they all turned profitable, but I could hardly say it was made with purpose and look out below. I still think we get a pretty good dump here starting to go into the weekend, but if get to $433.50ish, that would be a pretty good haul and that just may be it and at that point at least temporarily, I would be on the buy the dip side for a little while.
I do think we get some action from the VIX along with the oil rising and the bonds taking a beating that will help aide the market in sliding. Last week's rally is allot about short covering and buy the dip people along with the FOMO types who saw the quick V spike. That means a little crack in the bullishness can open wide and fast. IF that doesn't happen I can see further confidence gaining in the market and I will be forced for about another week or so to run with the bulls again.Comment -
Other than Slurry, Trob, and myself I'm getting the feeling this thread is dying. ?????Comment -
Haven't seen much to jump on, scared we fall of the cliff again. Just chillin waiting for the war to end basicallyComment -
I'm here. I don't trade in and out daily, weekly, or monthly. I am Long Term guy. I average down when things go to shitt and then when I raise more cash through work, I start putting it to to work.
I am thinking on my next run, I will add more Dividend Aristocrat stocks.
I will keep you posted.Comment -
Stocks just aren't it. I tried for years without success.Cause Sleep is the Cousin of DeathComment -
Bought NUE option 10/21 150 @ 21.80
It's a relatively safe play IMO with at least a little horizon for the market to run, and if it corrects I still have some time.Comment
