Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

[Madison]

Virtual Power Plants

Anyone that can jump start my investing/research? Very interesting concept.

Just scratching the surface here. This is the best I could find, but just getting started.

VPP explained: What is a Virtual Power Plant? (next-kraftwerke.com)

Direct Publishing, Nick Hodges does an interesting hour presentation, but like most it's a lead in to upsell his research.

[Madison]

Anyone that can jump start my investing/research? Very interesting concept.

Just scratching the surface here. This is the best I could find, but just getting started.

VPP explained: What is a Virtual Power Plant? (next-kraftwerke.com)

Direct Publishing, Nick Hodges does an interesting hour presentation, but like most it's a lead in to upsell his research.

Seems to be more hype than hope. Consensus seems to be that RUN was the stock he was touting.

I did find it interesting the number of sleuth sites there are, that essentially decompile the presentation and avoid the subscription fee.

Oh well.

[Slurry Pumper]

I'm finally back, and not a moment too soon. After a pretty big run up for the better part of last month, I think the market takes a pause here and pulls back finally for the next couple of weeks or at least doesn't go up. Then believe it or not, new market highs are in the cards either late spring or early to mid summer at the latest before taking a huge dump this mid to late fall. That's how I see the rest of the year playing out.
Thankfully you'll note that I'm not good at the more than a month forecast, so how about this week? I'm looking for the SPY to hold 440, if not that level 433 is the line in the sand where I sell my SPY calls.
Over in the QQQs that initial pullback area where I like to step in is 340, with my F it and get out number is the low of the year so far at 317.50. For both the SPY and QQQ I have several buying stops on the way down.

[RangeFinder]

I'm finally back, and not a moment too soon. After a pretty big run up for the better part of last month, I think the market takes a pause here and pulls back finally for the next couple of weeks or at least doesn't go up. Then believe it or not, new market highs are in the cards either late spring or early to mid summer at the latest before taking a huge dump this mid to late fall. That's how I see the rest of the year playing out.
Thankfully you'll note that I'm not good at the more than a month forecast, so how about this week? I'm looking for the SPY to hold 440, if not that level 433 is the line in the sand where I sell my SPY calls.
Over in the QQQs that initial pullback area where I like to step in is 340, with my F it and get out number is the low of the year so far at 317.50. For both the SPY and QQQ I have several buying stops on the way down.

I'd be careful with QQQ, seems this chip supply shortage was all false. Now they're reporting that they're overstocked and also companies are canceling orders because of a major slow down in computer and device sales.

[KVB]

I'd be careful with QQQ, seems this chip supply shortage was all false. Now they're reporting that they're overstocked and also companies are canceling orders because of a major slow down in computer and device sales.

What?

How can this be.

The computer chip shortage started before the pandemic. Individual companies have been reporting and dealing with the problem as well.

It's an ongoing global crisis.

I won't post links or evidence because there is far too much.

I would like to burden you with the links. Show us where you see the chip supply shortage as false.

Please.

[KVB]

Not trying to argue Range, you know I love you.

Just trying to sort this out.

Especially in this thread, it deserves it.

[Slurry Pumper]

Well I hope the Semis can pull out of the slump its been in lately. I own some TSM Calls that expire Jun 17 that are about 10 bucks out of the money and are hanging out at the area that I marked as a stop, $97.75ish.

Looking at the rest of the market shows me that we are at a spot. The SPY entered the zone I like yesterday but I didn't buy because the price hovered about the 440 level all day before plunging down. This tells me that there is more to go before a bounce. I like 435-436 to begin with and the line in the sand is still $433.
On the daily chart the IWM is in serious jeopardy of not making a higher low. It also has a pretty nice looking bear flag on the weekly, and the bear flag on the monthly is also below the 20 MMA. As we know the IWM is my favorite indicator.
How about my other favorite indicator the Dow Transports you ask? Well they are and have been playing defense for the last 3 days at about the lows. These are the look out below lows I'm talking about here not just a average everyday low. So that is an important bear flag action over in that market.

Things are suddenly looking like a giant red flag of super bearish free fall just might be on the table. Today we get the inflation numbers and even though I've been in a high plain desert in Chile for the last few weeks trying to figure out how to get off the shelf pumps in that environment, I think the numbers will be bad. How bad, well I just got some off the shelf pumping supplies that cost my customer about twice what the normal cost would be, then the cost to zap fry that stuff there was probably 3 times the normal emergency zap fry shipping cost. It will be interesting to see how the media plays it off as not that bad. I see gas prices subsided slightly but it is still over 4 bucks here in PA which is gonna put people under pressure.

[k13]

What?

How can this be.

The computer chip shortage started before the pandemic. Individual companies have been reporting and dealing with the problem as well.

It's an ongoing global crisis.

I won't post links or evidence because there is far too much.

I would like to burden you with the links. Show us where you see the chip supply shortage as false.

Please.

There's a car shortage too but every dealership by me has hundreds of new cars.

[NoDraMa4YoMaMa]

Well I hope the Semis can pull out of the slump its been in lately. I own some TSM Calls that expire Jun 17 that are about 10 bucks out of the money and are hanging out at the area that I marked as a stop, $97.75ish.

Looking at the rest of the market shows me that we are at a spot. The SPY entered the zone I like yesterday but I didn't buy because the price hovered about the 440 level all day before plunging down. This tells me that there is more to go before a bounce. I like 435-436 to begin with and the line in the sand is still $433.
On the daily chart the IWM is in serious jeopardy of not making a higher low. It also has a pretty nice looking bear flag on the weekly, and the bear flag on the monthly is also below the 20 MMA. As we know the IWM is my favorite indicator.
How about my other favorite indicator the Dow Transports you ask? Well they are and have been playing defense for the last 3 days at about the lows. These are the look out below lows I'm talking about here not just a average everyday low. So that is an important bear flag action over in that market.

Things are suddenly looking like a giant red flag of super bearish free fall just might be on the table. Today we get the inflation numbers and even though I've been in a high plain desert in Chile for the last few weeks trying to figure out how to get off the shelf pumps in that environment, I think the numbers will be bad. How bad, well I just got some off the shelf pumping supplies that cost my customer about twice what the normal cost would be, then the cost to zap fry that stuff there was probably 3 times the normal emergency zap fry shipping cost. It will be interesting to see how the media plays it off as not that bad. I see gas prices subsided slightly but it is still over 4 bucks here in PA which is gonna put people under pressure.

comeback today, but I'm worried too. Bought in on semi's on the dip..

[RangeFinder]

Not trying to argue Range, you know I love you.

Just trying to sort this out.

Especially in this thread, it deserves it.

K,

I should have included a thread, my bad. I first saw this on Fox Business channel with Liz Claman but there are others reporting it too. Device and computer markets are canceling chip orders and the chip makers are getting too much inventory. Never a good thing in business.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/two-analysts-duel-over-amd-221015289.html?fr=yhssrp_catchall

[RangeFinder]

Market breath is bearish. Morning rally, then mid day selling. Traders are legitimately scared right now. This could last a while folks, sea saw back and forth.

[KVB]

K,

I should have included a thread, my bad. I first saw this on Fox Business channel with Liz Claman but there are others reporting it too. Device and computer markets are canceling chip orders and the chip makers are getting too much inventory. Never a good thing in business.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/two-a...hssrp_catchall

Please tell me you made a mistake and posted the wrong link.

That link is about cyclical market concerns for AMD going out 3 years.

There is a lot questionable things in that article, in fact the article is about arguing over the grading of the stock.

Guy form Barclays probably dumped shares or sold short and but out some bullshit to try to justify his moves.

Absolutley nothing in there about chip issue.

Let's get something real here.

Anyone have anything to indicate the "chip shortage" that has and continues to span multiple industries is either not real or not as bad has been said.

I'm open to this, but we need something real, not opinions of stock downgrades of just one company that are based on cyclical concerns.

In my opinion there is trouble on the horizon for the broader markets and everyone is going to take a hit. In this environment, individual downgrades will appear correct as stocks drop, regardless of whether or not the reasons for the individual donwgrade come to fruition.

So, as a thread, what do we know about the chip shortage?

I'm tempted here to either go PUT crazy or just start shorting the shit out of everything. I don't think the Biden admin is going to resort to a plunge protection team like Trump did.

We might be able to make some money if that's true.

[Snowball]

There are very few sectors, really sub-sectors that you want to continue to own right now.
My only long positions are nano-cap Canadian palladium and rare earth miners.
The overall market is highly likely to correct downward significantly.

[Slurry Pumper]

Mining sector people, I told you it would have its day in the sun. Its the new growth sector. Going forward I think the tech and former growth stocks will subside and probably take a dump before the end of the year. Inflation will subside but remain high, so the FED will be forced to ratchet up the interest rates and start to clear up that 10 trillion or so it has on the balance sheet. At sometime that shit will crash the markets and when it does those interest rate sensitive tech bubbles that have been roaring for the last 14 years will feel it.
Stay with the mining and commodities if it comes out of the ground I want to buy it. Shyt like Lithium, Palladium, unobtainium, flintstonium, copper, silver, nickel (even in Russia), hell I'm unveiling a new tomata hut this year so I need to buy some of that famous pig shit and dirt mix the Mennonites make. Sure smells horrible but the tomatas grow up to be big, tasty and juicy.

So today all the markets have some more work to the downside to do after not quite making it down to my level I was willing to buy, and since the SPY came up about 60 cents short, I can't be buying the $436 anymore, but the $435 to $433 is my target spot to dip my toes in that.

Looking at my TSM (Taiwan Semi-conductors), they are bouncing off of my stop level this morning. Of course they had a bounce yesterday as well before giving it all back. This morning however it is a 4% bounce so maybe some of that sticks.

Overall the market is set to bounce and why not the inflation numbers suck, the couple of banks that reported earlier this morning haven't looked too good yet, shyt is falling apart across the world so it makes market sense to have a rally in that world. Although I think we might have another gap in crap in store today. I'll keep nimble so I can buy those daily expiring calls in the SPY (4/14), so if the SPY can somehow get to and stay above 442 on short term candles (10-15 minutes ones) this morning and the ambulance squad has arrived, I'll play the long game for the day, but until then I'll look for the same thing that went on yesterday.

[Poker_Beast]

Welcome back Slurry!

[Madison]

IBonds

I banged the drum on these last November. You can only get 10K per SSN. Interest rate adjusts semi-annually (Nov & May). I got 7.12% in November. CNBC just reported they expect the May adjustment to grow to 9.6%. Tough to turn down.

[RangeFinder]

Please tell me you made a mistake and posted the wrong link.

That link is about cyclical market concerns for AMD going out 3 years.

There is a lot questionable things in that article, in fact the article is about arguing over the grading of the stock.

Guy form Barclays probably dumped shares or sold short and but out some bullshit to try to justify his moves.

Absolutley nothing in there about chip issue.

Let's get something real here.

Anyone have anything to indicate the "chip shortage" that has and continues to span multiple industries is either not real or not as bad has been said.

I'm open to this, but we need something real, not opinions of stock downgrades of just one company that are based on cyclical concerns.

In my opinion there is trouble on the horizon for the broader markets and everyone is going to take a hit. In this environment, individual downgrades will appear correct as stocks drop, regardless of whether or not the reasons for the individual donwgrade come to fruition.

So, as a thread, what do we know about the chip shortage?

I'm tempted here to either go PUT crazy or just start shorting the shit out of everything. I don't think the Biden admin is going to resort to a plunge protection team like Trump did.

We might be able to make some money if that's true.

K

Let me do some more research, I will do some searches plus talk to a friend of mine who keeps up on all this, who is, in the chip industry. Give me a day or two.

[RangeFinder]

Looks to be another fake rally controlled by short term trading. Be on the button if you're trading short term options. Especially call options.

[Slurry Pumper]

Looks to be another fake rally controlled by short term trading. Be on the button if you're trading short term options. Especially call options.

Yeah, the SPY got to the 442 number, but it floated up there with the conviction of a feeble 80 year old. Sure we have about 3 to 4 10 minute closing above it but I just couldn't take any calls. I actually did a little lunch money on the $440 PUTS at like $2 for 5 of them, so I bet a grand that today or tomorrow the SPY will be lower than $440. Other than that I don't see much going on today.
Except for those TSM semi conductors took of and have maintained the $3.50 gains so far today. If the market fails and steps back in a hole today, it will be interesting to see if the TSM goes back with it.

[Enkhbat]

This rally seems like it is gonna go on for a couple of weeks. But eventually yeah it will drop below 440. I will buy some puts when it goes above 450.

[Yulia74]

He Begged Us to Buy $1 of Bitcoin 10 Years Ago

[Slurry Pumper]

Its the last day of the week already and usually going into and out of a holiday weekend the markets tend to rally. That's probably the case here too. Right now things are slightly negative so I wouldn't be surprised if the Trick, Trap, Fool and Fuk you sideways crew shows up here this morning to kill the tape early only to turn around mid day and float up into the weekend.

[KVB]

K

Let me do some more research, I will do some searches plus talk to a friend of mine who keeps up on all this, who is, in the chip industry. Give me a day or two.

We might need more than a friend of yours, Range.

I know people in the chip industry as well. I also know people in the Auto industry, Appliance indsutry, and even consumer elctronics. I also know bankers that help create research and gradings for many of these companies.

There are severy reasons why there is a legit chip shortage, several, not to mention all the companies legitmately affected by it.

Posting link after link to prove there was a shortage, and the reasons it occured, seems pointless. Let's see something saying it's not real instead.

I'm guessing you are misunderstanding what you are being told. I'm guessing you are being told that the reasons for the shortage, those in MSM, might be bullshit. This is because of a gross miscalculation by chip makers. The reasons for the shortage may have more to do with the actions of companies, like in Taiwan, instead of reactions from, say COVID.

So while many reasons offered for the chip shortage may have been bullshit, the effects of slowing production when demand was actually picking up are real.

Very real.

[Madison]

We might need more than a friend of yours, Range.

I know people in the chip industry as well. I also know people in the Auto industry, Appliance indsutry, and even consumer elctronics. I also know bankers that help create research and gradings for many of these companies.

There are severy reasons why there is a legit chip shortage, several, not to mention all the companies legitmately affected by it.

Posting link after link to prove there was a shortage, and the reasons it occured, seems pointless. Let's see something saying it's not real instead.

I'm guessing you are misunderstanding what you are being told. I'm guessing you are being told that the reasons for the shortage, those in MSM, might be bullshit. This is because of a gross miscalculation by chip makers. The reasons for the shortage may have more to do with the actions of companies, like in Taiwan, instead of reactions from, say COVID.

So while many reasons offered for the chip shortage may have been bullshit, the effects of slowing production when demand was actually picking up are real.

Very real.

So, any insight to the domestication (Intel?) of semi's and where we should be looking to place our $$.

[KVB]

So, any insight to the domestication (Intel?) of semi's and where we should be looking to place our $$.

I think domestication is an ongoing story, even a national security story.

Not sure exactly where to put money now, I feel like things are still going to drop. I’ll try to do some screens and see if we can see which stocks in the sector might be getting some inside money, my guess is we need to wait for the charts to drop and consolidate but I’m not sure.

I donk’s want to get fooled by the volatility.

[Madison]

I think domestication is an ongoing story, even a national security story.

Not sure exactly where to put money now, I feel like things are still going to drop. I’ll try to do some screens and see if we can see which stocks in the sector might be getting some inside money, my guess is we need to wait for the charts to drop and consolidate but I’m not sure.

I donk’s want to get fooled by the volatility.

I feel Domestication is a BIG story. Dabbling in Lithium, miners, etc. Let us know what you find. Thx!

[d2bets]

Its the last day of the week already and usually going into and out of a holiday weekend the markets tend to rally. That's probably the case here too. Right now things are slightly negative so I wouldn't be surprised if the Trick, Trap, Fool and Fuk you sideways crew shows up here this morning to kill the tape early only to turn around mid day and float up into the weekend.

Opposite day. Tape was up early and then fell consistently and into the close.

[Madison]

This market is scarying me. Any thoughts on how low this could go? I get geopolicical but aside seems more downside versus upside momentum??

[d2bets]

This market is scarying me. Any thoughts on how low this could go? I get geopolicical but aside seems more downside versus upside momentum??

Anything is possible in any direction. "Could" can be almost anything. Just a matter of odds. Like saying, could the Cavaliers beat the Hawks by 50 points tomorrow? Sure they could. Just highly unlikely. Just like the market "could" drop 50% in the next two weeks.

[Slurry Pumper]

There is potential for more downside than I care to think about. Actually the markets have been holding up pretty well considering. I still think it rises from here before it totally falls apart this fall. The fed is going to be required to keep on ratcheting things up until it collapses. Otherwise it will happen anyway but in a different way.

[Yulia74]

This market is scarying me. Any thoughts on how low this could go? I get geopolicical but aside seems more downside versus upside momentum??

total obliteration would be nice

[guitarjosh]

This market is scarying me. Any thoughts on how low this could go? I get geopolicical but aside seems more downside versus upside momentum??

I wouldn't be shocked if we get a 15% drop in the S&P 500 from here. A lot of the ratios and bonds I watch are tanking.

[Snowball]

SPY has an easy ride down to 415
there is not much to like at all -- very few sectors... commods all of them and pm's
although B-Team Steel like SCHN and ZEUS look good.

[Madison]

Thanks to everyone for your input/observations. Much appreciated!

Off to the ponies for a little side distraction for the day. BOL to all.

[Slurry Pumper]

Hey Happy Easter and Passover everyone, and let me be the 1st to offer a happy 4-20 to all my THC loving friends.

The markets did the other than usual thing on Thursday going into the holidays sure it fell early, and then instead of recovering and floating off into the weekend, they kind of hung around for a while then fell apart going into the close.



When we look at the SPY 3 month chart with Daily candle sticks, you can easily tell that the last 4 days the range is between $445 and Thursday's near closing closing low of $437.75ish which is well below all of the moving averages. The $432.50 dotted line you see on the screen was last weeks line in the sand for me but next week after hang out just above that spot is not a place I want to call the turn around spot. I like it when the stochastics are on the bottom with the MACD down as well even though they don't look like they are starting to turn yet. Looking at the daily, I'm a buyer at the $426.50ish level if the price comes to that area buy Wednesday mid-day. The other spot I like is the $415.50 for a defensive stand, and the goal line defense is the $410.64 low.



Taking a look at the 6 Month chart with Weekly candle sticks, and you can see where the price moved up off the recent lows to the high of the breakdown candle from the 1/17 week. It also peeked above the 20WMA for a little bit before falling away and closing last week below the 50WMA. Stochastics look like they are turning over and this has a bearish look to it for the near future.



Busting out the 3 Year Monthly chart clearly shows that the SPY is still in an uptrend and we know the trend is your friend until she tosses you out because she figured out that your not going to pay your side of the rent. Look at the last 3 months, there has been an attempt to fall back to the 20MMA only to snap back. Will it be support again this month? Maybe, but don't be surprised if we see $415ish before the end of the month with yet another test of that 20MMA. Below that and it is a long way down to around $360ish before I see monthly support.