-
Comment -
There is an underlying force whose motive will be to pressure interest rates down. What do you figure the COLA on SS increase last year and this will add to the entitlement obligation? And as you mentioned the overhead interest is implying on the national debt. Not a pretty picture and as I've mentioned before inflation seems more and more likely as the only out?Comment -
Musk selling shitload of tsla to buy Twitter.Comment -
Right now if you make 110,000 ? You quit paying on s.s. All they need to do is jack it up to 150,000. Before any jack off says shit I was self employed paying 53% of all income on it. Also I never got to write my house off because of carter. It is called alternative minimum tax. Look it up and it sucks.Comment -
it's actually already capped at $142,800... they could make everyone pay ss on ALL their income (not just cap it at 150k) and it still wouldn't make a dent
annual cost already exceeds what ss takes in, and every year it is going to get much worse, way more retirees and less people entering the work force
even worse is medicare, they pay out $1 trillion/year and collect less than 1/2 of that... and again that is going to get much worseComment -
another leg down for crypto ugh
less than a month ago etc was 47, now 25
brutal price action in bonds, preferreds, crypto, tech stocks... it's like someone saw everything i was holding a few months ago and just wanted to kick my ass over and over lolComment -
-
Maybe this is the real dip lolComment -
i meant ethereum classic (etc)
yeah i know we're all feeling it... kicking myself because i went way too heavy with cash i was gonna use for a condo in vegas, and lost 30-40% of it quickly
timing is everything in life, and mine has been pretty horrible, oh well, life goes on, maybe i'll have to get a job! oh wait let's not do anything drastic
Comment -
"timing in life is everything". Few words/phrases were ever better spoken. I've had my plusses and negatives but overall on the positive side, I think?. But very true!i meant ethereum classic (etc)
yeah i know we're all feeling it... kicking myself because i went way too heavy with cash i was gonna use for a condo in vegas, and lost 30-40% of it quickly
timing is everything in life, and mine has been pretty horrible, oh well, life goes on, maybe i'll have to get a job! oh wait let's not do anything drastic
Comment -
Don't mean this at you in particular, but momentum these days could be a thing in the markets. I mean, when it was rising all the couch traders were making easy money and then spending more, which makes earnings better and so on....cycle up. But now the opposite is people taking losses, hearing bad stuff, not spending, effects earnings, and so on. Exaggerated moves on the way up and on the way down.i meant ethereum classic (etc)
yeah i know we're all feeling it... kicking myself because i went way too heavy with cash i was gonna use for a condo in vegas, and lost 30-40% of it quickly
timing is everything in life, and mine has been pretty horrible, oh well, life goes on, maybe i'll have to get a job! oh wait let's not do anything drastic
Comment -
I wish I never sold my shit. I bought ethereum at very beginning and same with litecoin. Still waiting to see what happens with xrp.i meant ethereum classic (etc)
yeah i know we're all feeling it... kicking myself because i went way too heavy with cash i was gonna use for a condo in vegas, and lost 30-40% of it quickly
timing is everything in life, and mine has been pretty horrible, oh well, life goes on, maybe i'll have to get a job! oh wait let's not do anything drastic
Comment -
totally agree
we've had a phony economy ever since then... i would guess 90% of the government employees are close to worthless, and probably 50% of others. they're not making anything or doing anything productive, just staring at a computer screen and pretending they have some sort of value
i used to work a lot of random jobs as a temp, and i could've done the work of 4 of their employees at most of themComment -
Huge week in the markets coming up. We have the Fed coming out and probably raising the interest rates 50 basis points on Wednesday, but more important than that it will be interesting what line of bullshit he has. One thing is for certain, whatever he says you know that it just ain't true. Aside from that we have unemployment numbers and a load of earnings to boot.
After looking at the charts all weekend I can tell you it doesn't look good anywhere really. Then out abroad we have the Japanese Yen totally collapsing and that is causing a spike in the Dollar along with Gold taking it on the chin. Interest rates are close to inverting again which is always some fun news to hear too.
So what I'm doing?
I have short term QQQ Puts that are doing pretty good. I bought them the other day when we got the GDP number being negative and the market just took off on a ride up. I knew that was fake so that is when I went in buying Puts. With that thought, I hate to admit it but I'm a little on the fence for the week and the opportunity to tear a sack of one of my crystal ballz is higher. I'm 65% in the camp of a relief rally here and the only reason is that everything, and I do mean everything looks bad. When it all looks this bad, that typically means it is a good time to at least hedge those puts I got last week and get some calls. I'll be looking to buy some IWM Calls this morning after the early morning rush is over and we put in a morning low pivot. It may take some time if we have a bounce to begin with. I don't think all the markets just gap and go today, but that may happen if they put another support in the I-beam of bullshit which is brought to you by the plunge protection team. If the market is going to have a relief rally today, I think it is more likely to have a fake out to the down side brought to you by the Trick, Trap, Fool, and Fuk you sideways crew. They will make it look like the bottom is dropping out just befroe turning on a dime and riding it back up. Look for $410.65 to be defended, and a spike of around $408 would be a good spot for people to think things are going to shyt before turning around. That's a buy spot for my SPY Calls, and if it continues to tank, I'll just get out and keep the QQQ Puts, if it turns around, I'll exit the puts and keep the SPY Calls.
In the 35% camp, I think this could be the week the Fed just lets the market tank. Its all set up and he could easily let things tank here. Its gonna happen either now or at the end of summer to the fall time frame. The Fed knows it looks horrendous, which is why his comments should be interesting. If I were him, I would let the markets go now so that in the fall there will be a recovery under way. If they wait and try to prop it up, the fall would be the place where it overwhelms them.Comment -
if we do have another down day look for the 100 DMA to stop it (402) for the day, and maybe the nice 400 number.Comment -
Well not exactly like I planned it but close enough. The SPY came down to $405 before rocketing back up into the close. I got the SPY calls for a few weeks at the $408 strike earlier but kept the QQQ Puts for a while. Then got out of the QQQs when the rocket ride started back when the SPY was going up to the 408 level again.
Anyway, I'm now in the 70% camp of having a relief rally this week. It can still fall apart tomorrow since the SPY is below that $416.50 ish level. We'll see how it goes tomorrow, we need 420, then 425 then 432, so there is a but load of work to be done to get people back to believe the crash isn't here.Comment -
No such thing as a bottom could go to zero
That is what most people do not getComment -
Good time to buy Disney? Can't stand the company but I like money, and I doubt the unofficial boycott will last very long.Comment -
i'll take the opposite side of poker beast
disney still looks expensive, and pretty much every one of their businesses is going to be worse a year from now
amazon's sales/earnings looked terrible because people are starting to spend all of their available money on rent/food/gasComment -
Checkout JUSHF. Trading at $2.18 as of close. Down like 50% from February. 52 week low. Owner bought a bunch at $3.29 a bit ago. Also two separate long term investors bought millions in an offering at $3.68 in the past couple months. Easy 20% bounce sometime in the near future IMO. Or if you are long term this should be a 5 bagger by the time VA goes recreational in 2024.Comment -
at this price it seems decent
but these marijuana stocks just get killed with taxes... for example jushf, even though they had loss carryforwards they still paid over 51% in federal taxes last quarter
so many of these companies pay over 100% of their profits in federal income taxes because of the dumbass rule that doesn't let them deduct expenses other than cost of goods soldComment -
Great point on the Pot stocks Mike. That industry is way over taxed and will probably remain that way until the entire U.S. is saturated.
Today is probably the most important Fed day that I can remember. What's going to happen? Who knows, but each time the Fed comes up to the podium to answer questions he is in a little worse position than before. The lies are a little harder to tell and the cynical reception is a little more cynical.
Expect some wild swings as usual and maybe even some more than usual movement today when the Q & A segment comes out. Sure the 50 basis points is baked in, and the letting the bonds mature off the books is also known, but what will be the big mover is what the outlook is according to the way the Fed sees it. I'm in the camp of a relief rally out of this, but with the way the market swings, we could see a dip below the lows for the year before that happens. Then a rip you a new one rally back into the 432ish level on the SPY before the collapse continues.
Looks like we are rallying into the announcement this morning so I'm taking 50% of the SPY calls I bought on Monday (Strike $408) off the table. You can't go wrong booking profits. I'll leave the other half on the table for gambling purposes.Comment -
Biden speaks at a presser, and the market starts to trend down, what else is new.Comment -
Took a contrarian approach on a SPY Call at 215 for July 15. Kind of a gamble by I expect a market pump when weak hands fade.Comment
