Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

[Madison]

Checkout JUSHF. Trading at $2.18 as of close. Down like 50% from February. 52 week low. Owner bought a bunch at $3.29 a bit ago. Also two separate long term investors bought millions in an offering at $3.68 in the past couple months. Easy 20% bounce sometime in the near future IMO. Or if you are long term this should be a 5 bagger by the time VA goes recreational in 2024.

Appreciate your input. No offense but I took my spanking in cannibas last year and escaped relatively unscathed. If there's a sector that I'm clueless this is certainly one.

[Madison]

at this price it seems decent

but these marijuana stocks just get killed with taxes... for example jushf, even though they had loss carryforwards they still paid over 51% in federal taxes last quarter

so many of these companies pay over 100% of their profits in federal income taxes because of the dumbass rule that doesn't let them deduct expenses other than cost of goods sold

One more reason I appreciate you back contributing! Isn't the other obstacle FED regulation across state borders?

[Madison]

Great point on the Pot stocks Mike. That industry is way over taxed and will probably remain that way until the entire U.S. is saturated.

Today is probably the most important Fed day that I can remember. What's going to happen? Who knows, but each time the Fed comes up to the podium to answer questions he is in a little worse position than before. The lies are a little harder to tell and the cynical reception is a little more cynical.
Expect some wild swings as usual and maybe even some more than usual movement today when the Q & A segment comes out. Sure the 50 basis points is baked in, and the letting the bonds mature off the books is also known, but what will be the big mover is what the outlook is according to the way the Fed sees it. I'm in the camp of a relief rally out of this, but with the way the market swings, we could see a dip below the lows for the year before that happens. Then a rip you a new one rally back into the 432ish level on the SPY before the collapse continues.
Looks like we are rallying into the announcement this morning so I'm taking 50% of the SPY calls I bought on Monday (Strike $408) off the table. You can't go wrong booking profits. I'll leave the other half on the table for gambling purposes.

Could just be me but every time he speaks seems the market drops??

[Madison]

Biden speaks at a presser, and the market starts to trend down, what else is new.

He, or his people, can spin the data with the best of them. IE the market/economy was down (Covid) but now we're way up due to me. Ahhh the deficit?? It's been going on for decades and my concern is that they think they are speaking to stupid people (Which for the most part they are likely doing).

Take a look at the acceleration on the National Debt over the last 20 years. They're all guilty to a large extent.

[RangeFinder]

He, or his people, can spin the data with the best of them. IE the market/economy was down (Covid) but now we're way up due to me. Ahhh the deficit?? It's been going on for decades and my concern is that they think they are speaking to stupid people (Which for the most part they are likely doing).

Take a look at the acceleration on the National Debt over the last 20 years. They're all guilty to a large extent.

Yea, it seems everyone is waiting for the other shoe to drop. That's why I took the contrarian risk. Seems a lot of times in the past when everything is gloom and doom, the market rallies. It's a short term investment that I will unload at 15% profit. Don't want to get to greedy at this point.

We need the other chart reader (KVB) to match Slurries to see if they differ. My guess is they very well could.

[Slurry Pumper]

OK taking profit on the other SPY calls I have left here sometime before the close. Resistance is at $429, and lately the day after the Fed is a fall apart day. Book profits and you don't go broke.

[RangeFinder]

We have ourselves a rally!!!!

[RangeFinder]

Sold the SPY call. Maybe a time to grab a put.

[Slurry Pumper]

Sold the SPY call. Maybe a time to grab a put.

I'm waiting until $437 before jumping on the put train. If it gets there.

[Madison]

Lithium

I've been pounding the table on this for years. ALB, LTHM, LIACF, lAC, etc off and running

[Slurry Pumper]

After the big rally yesterday we find the markets this morning in the pre-market pulling back somewhat. Pulling back to where? How about the pivot price from last week of $426.50 ish. Can't say that I'm shocked as this is typical. We will have to wait and see if the SPY can hold this spot, and if it can I'll jump back in and buy those SPY Calls for another leg higher. If it fails, then the SPY is looking to drift back down and the next spot I'll be looking to buy Calls is at $423.50 which is the top of a breakdown candle from the other day (4/29) then if price continues to sink below that the next level is between $421 and $420. I don't think it gets there however, and since I'm in the short term bullish camp, I think the $426.50 will be held after the open this morning but we'll see.
The Fed came out and lied with the best of them so I wouldn't be surprised if this relief rally goes for a while, the first target on my list is the $432.50ish area probably by the end of the week, then next week on a continuation, my crystal Ballz are showing me $437 as a likely spot and maybe even $447.50 on an irrationally exuberant run. There are allot of other spots in between like the 20,50,100 DMA and other resistance levels but that is the big picture outlook for the next week or so.

[Slurry Pumper]

I've been pounding the table on this for years. ALB, LTHM, LIACF, lAC, etc off and running

I like all things coming out of the ground this year, and the lithium is on the list of hot commodities. This specific element is being targeted for further development so money is being spent. I'm with you on all of these with the possible exception of LIACF. Its too cheap for me right now, and I think the environmental headwinds will keep down the potential growth for a while for in the U.S. development.

[topgame85]

at this price it seems decent

but these marijuana stocks just get killed with taxes... for example jushf, even though they had loss carryforwards they still paid over 51% in federal taxes last quarter

so many of these companies pay over 100% of their profits in federal income taxes because of the dumbass rule that doesn't let them deduct expenses other than cost of goods sold

No doubt on the taxes. Still, at these levels, even if that didn't get worked out in next year or two, very little if any risk. Plus Jushf is in mostly limited market states. Northern VA will be a billion dollar market in 2024 with Recreational alone. Company run by M&A guys who never overpay. Company market Cap under $500 mil. Can't see any situation where they aren't worth 2 billion mid-2024 with much higher upside if banking and tax issues get worked out.

At some point, if not already, politicians will eat up shares. Move the status quo. And make a fortune. A dozen Republicans get together and make tens of millions overnight.

[Slurry Pumper]

Its time for the bulls to play some defense here at sub 420. If not things can fall apart and my rally situation is not happening.

[RangeFinder]

Its time for the bulls to play some defense here at sub 420. If not things can fall apart and my rally situation is not happening.

The 10 year really hosed any kind of rally. I'm waiting for the last hour to decide the next move.

[d2bets]

Day to day 2-3% moves is ridiculous. Has anything actually changed in the last 19 hours?

Just programmed momentum trading.

[rake922]

Day to day 2-3% moves is ridiculous. Has anything actually changed in the last 19 hours?

Just programmed momentum trading.

https://news.sky.com/story/bank-of-england-forecast-suggests-britons-will-soon-feel-profound-economic-pain-not-felt-for-a-generation-12605879

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/bank-england-set-4th-straight-rate-hike-fight-inflation-2022-05-04/

[Yulia74]

recession is coming

[k13]

These raises are joke. 0.25% to 1% to fight 10% inflation...lol

Enjoy your tech stock boys. Keep buying the dip.

[Madison]

OK taking profit on the other SPY calls I have left here sometime before the close. Resistance is at $429, and lately the day after the Fed is a fall apart day. Book profits and you don't go broke.

Wish I would listened.

[Slurry Pumper]

Wish I would listened.

Yeah, a Put position as mentioned by the RangerFinder yesterday would have been the winning move.
Today's market reminds me of my 1st wife on the day we got married, she's just going down all day.

[d2bets]

Yeah, a Put position as mentioned by the RangerFinder yesterday would have been the winning move.
Today's market reminds me of my 1st wife on the day we got married, she's just going down all day.

Still better than if the market reminded you of the day you divorced your 1st wife.

[Slurry Pumper]

Still better than if the market reminded you of the day you divorced your 1st wife.

Well it hasn't taken half my money yet, but for some people it is working on that.

[eidolon]

And the walls came tumbling down down down down

[d2bets]

Well it hasn't taken half my money yet, but for some people it is working on that.

Yeah, that's what I mean. When market returns mimic a divorce, then that's real pain.

[RangeFinder]

Didn't pick anything up before the close. I need to watch some more before jumping back into this circus.

[milwaukee mike]

Didn't pick anything up before the close. I need to watch some more before jumping back into this circus.

usually there is a huge capitulation day, i would rather buy on a day when the dow is down 1000 early and makes a quick comeback

but any cash i have coming in will go to preferreds, a lot of $25 preferreds (like usb-q) are going for 16... pretty easy 7%/yr return when you factor in that they will be retired for 25 at some point

[Slurry Pumper]

Well now you know why I sold my calls going into the close yesterday. I did jump in this morning when the market started to level out this morning at around 10. At that time the price for the SPY was $420.25. Then the price went down and started to close 10 minute candles at around 418.50, once it broke 418, I was gone so I don't feel bad as I was out with a small loss, but a nice gain from earlier in the week.
Which brings me to tomorrow, believe it or not it could be another whipsaw rescue operation or a breakdown lets all jump out of the window and end it already day. Or it could even be a nothing burger day with a flat end result, and if it is, that would be a signal believe it or not of a trend change in the weekly chart.
Just trying to give you a glimmer of hope if you are looking for a positive sign. Here's another one, the dow transports has yet to make a lower low for the year and is my scout index that I use to let me know which way I think the market is going. Of course I used that today to try and tell myself that we were going to have some follow through from yesterday's rally so it isn't fool proof.

[Yulia74]

[ouzoun]

That was a good one.

[Slurry Pumper]

So waking and baking this morning then turning on Maria's show, then switching over to check out that Becky Quick who I have to say looks remarkably like she did 30 years ago when she started out. Good job Becky, no wonder Warren Buffet will only talk to you. You still look good at like 60 years old.
Anyway, a little bit of selling to start the day but holding the 410 level which is pretty good support. The I-Beam of bullshit is really starting to buckle here and is in need of a bigger upgrade because if the selling continues like yesterday and the 405 spot on the SPY which is lurking, and is taken out, I can see some panic selling into the weekend and the next spot on the SPY of $394ish which is far away but when things get in a panic things move quick.
How about if thing snap back and we have a up day? Well the numbers don't switch around, we look for $416, then 420, and on. As for myself, I'm taking a rare day to sit on the sidelines and watch. I have long term QQQ Puts tha tI got like a month ago that are already almost doubled so I'm not going to push it knowing that this week was actually profitable. I don't want to F that up going into the weekend.

[RangeFinder]

Slur, I think this thing goes to 390 on the SPY (Scary I know), if it does, I will buy some calls for July for a short term trade. The wait is on.

[chico2663]

Bought more Amazon. Split is coming up at end of month.

[Enkhbat]

Another rough week? wow

[Slurry Pumper]

Waking and baking up to a blood bath this morning. Last Friday's close had all of the indices except for the SPY under the "Look out Below" number I had, and now the SPY has joined them in the pre-market.
We also have inflation data coming in this week so as I scratch my crystal Ballz this morning, it doesn't take a Nostradamus to figure out things in the future look a little bleak. Usually when the market looks as gloomy as it does and all the signs are pointing in one direction is when things magically turn around for no reason at all. I'm not in that camp today, I see only downside. I hope I'm wrong but this may be the week that breaks that I beam of bull shit.
If you ain't short, I don't know that you can "short in the hole" because of the nature of the market's tendency to bounce back seemingly at random, and if your looking to buy on the dip, good luck with that this week. Stepping in front of this train would take some stones. Then if your a ride it out kind of person, I think it is time to just do something else for a while and allow the autopilot to take over through these bumpy times.