Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

**RangeFinder** · 05-11-22, 03:52 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

This is what happens when liberals take over

Pretty much. All policy of trying to destroy our nation financially.

**d2bets** · 05-11-22, 03:55 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

This is what happens when liberals take over

Markets go up and down. Last 3 years were too much punchbowl, it was inevitable. Returns were unsustainable. Market still up over 20% since Biden beat Trump 1.5 years ago. That's over 13% annualized. Better than average annual return. Of course that very well could change in the coming days and weeks.

**DwightShrute** · 05-11-22, 04:58 PM

**eidolon** · 05-11-22, 05:11 PM

Originally posted by Madison

I have been a skeptic since 6/21. I do trade in and out so?? (That's my cross to bear). I can't imagine where I'd be now if I had held many very overweight/ATH positions? I certainly watched in anguish as NVDA (Very long list of other) kept going higher and higher.

I went over my 4 qtr buys/sells and boy I could be toast right now if I would have held many positions.

FWIW, I am very carefully selectively starting to redeploy some of my cash.

Go look at what has high shorts.
The shorts are going to get paid out before there is recovery.

**Slurry Pumper** · 05-11-22, 08:37 PM

So it only took a day when the unfinished bidness of getting the SPY down to 394 happened after coming up short on Tuesday. Now the SPY closed about a buck below the 394 number and I'll have to reset some targets tomorrow morning. Eventually we are going to get that broken half gallon bottle of JD ripped out of the colon rally and there will be a giant short squeeze. Until then enjoy the PUT train to the bottom. Who says you can't make money in a down market. All you have to do is short the rip. So the next rip we get and we eventually will, you can let that rally go for a few days, then start to sell short. They are trying to get a soft landing with the economy but the only thing they don't tell you is a soft landing is what the space shuttle used to do on most days. It basically fell out of the sky and pulled up real quick just before landing. The stock market is doing the same. So far it is a controlled fall with not too much volume and not much panic as of yet.

**d2bets** · 05-11-22, 08:58 PM

Weird how everybody is panicking now more than March 2020 when current levels are over 75%(!) higher than March 23, 2020. Think about that. Up 75%+ in the past 26 months and everybody thinks the market has crasehd.

**Slurry Pumper** · 05-12-22, 06:14 AM

Its all about market sentiment and forward looking forecast of what is coming.

I'm looking for another spot here on the SPY for a possible short term bottom before we go to my 1st initial spot which is 3700. If you recall I stated that when we break $410, I didn't see much support until the SPY gets to $360-370 level. Well we are slightly more than half way there and we are only 20 bucks away from the top of that range. I still think we get a bounce before the SPY crashes 40 to 50 dollars from the former low of $410.
So how about the $385 level? That's a spot were the SPY hung out for a little while when Biden got into office before taking off to new highs.

**k13** · 05-12-22, 08:41 AM

Originally posted by d2bets

Weird how everybody is panicking now more than March 2020 when current levels are over 75%(!) higher than March 23, 2020. Think about that. Up 75%+ in the past 26 months and everybody thinks the market has crasehd.

Inflation and possibly of high rates destroys the market.
The only reason the market went up is because of low rates.

In 2020 they were lowering rates and printing money...

**d2bets** · 05-12-22, 09:10 AM

Originally posted by k13

Inflation and possibly of high rates destroys the market.
The only reason the market went up is because of low rates.

In 2020 they were lowering rates and printing money...

Right. Right. And yet the market now is 75% higher in this environment. Still way way ahead of pre-pandemic *highs*, which had already risen 20%+ in the prior year.

**JIBBBY** · 05-12-22, 09:19 AM

Kiss your stock portfolio's goodbye! Forget about retirement as it's time to go back to work now you old farts!

**d2bets** · 05-12-22, 09:20 AM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

Kiss your stock portfolio's goodbye! Forget about retirement as it's time to go back to work now you old farts!

Old retired farts shouldn't be in the stock market. At that point, it's just gambling not investing.

**k13** · 05-12-22, 10:49 AM

Originally posted by d2bets

Right. Right. And yet the market now is 75% higher in this environment. Still way way ahead of pre-pandemic *highs*, which had already risen 20%+ in the prior year.

Yeah so more losses to come.
Plus the market is being held up by a few big companies.
Many are already down below pre-covid

**Madison** · 05-12-22, 04:59 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

Kiss your stock portfolio's goodbye! Forget about retirement as it's time to go back to work now you old farts!

WOW, I wasn't even sure if I should respond to this ridiculus post. How old are you and what's your net worth? I'm 68 with 2 newish premium auto's, a paid off 700K home, and close to a MIL in investments. 80% fixed income and 20% in equities. Anything I'm down I was up the last 2 years.

Are you living in mama's basement and wishing bad on others??

**Madison** · 05-12-22, 05:00 PM

Originally posted by Madison

WOW, I wasn't even sure if I should respond to this ridiculus post. How old are you and what's your net worth? I'm 68 with 2 newish premium auto's, a paid off 700K home, and close to a MIL in investments. 80% fixed income and 20% in equities. Anything I'm down I was up the last 2 years.

Are you living in mama's basement and wishing bad on others??

Ohh, and every 3rd Wed of each month my wife and I get a 5K check from SSN.

Wish you all the best.

**JIBBBY** · 05-12-22, 10:27 PM

Originally posted by Madison

WOW, I wasn't even sure if I should respond to this ridiculus post. How old are you and what's your net worth? I'm 68 with 2 newish premium auto's, a paid off 700K home, and close to a MIL in investments. 80% fixed income and 20% in equities. Anything I'm down I was up the last 2 years.

Are you living in mama's basement and wishing bad on others??

No I'm retired. I want bitcoin to skyrocket along with the stock market and it did under the Trump presidency and we got spoiled. I'm not a hater.

I just know why this and the inflation crap is happening. Printed too much money and the Biden economics which is spend and give as much as possible isn't working! Clamp down on regulations and green new deals..

**d2bets** · 05-12-22, 11:06 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

No I'm retired. I want bitcoin to skyrocket along with the stock market and it did under the Trump presidency and we got spoiled. I'm not a hater.

I just know why this and the inflation crap is happening. Printed too much money and the Biden economics which is spend and give as much as possible isn't working! Clamp down on regulations and green new deals..

Amazing how people lack perspective:

The S&P 500 is up nearly 20% since Biden beat Trump 11/8/20 (3290>3928)
Same period 11/4/20 to 5/11/18 (2163>2721 up 25.8%)
Not appreciably different. And that was before the huge correction late 2018.
Perception is a funny, and inaccurate, thing.

**Slurry Pumper** · 05-13-22, 06:39 AM

Originally posted by d2bets

Amazing how people lack perspective:

The S&P 500 is up nearly 20% since Biden beat Trump 11/8/20 (3290>3928)
Same period 11/4/20 to 5/11/18 (2163>2721 up 25.8%)
Not appreciably different. And that was before the huge correction late 2018.
Perception is a funny, and inaccurate, thing.

Don't worry that rise in the market will soon evaporate, its only been a little more than 15 months.

It looks like the SPY is going to bounce here at the $385 spot. Or at least stop going down for a while. First thing is first however lets see if they can recapture 400 and keep it for a little bit before saying we have a rescue rally. As you may have guessed I got out of all the PUTS I had going on as we approached and then bounced off the 385 spot. I got similar numbers for the IWM, and QQQs. I didn't take any long positions yet and probably wont going into the weekend. I extracted some hefty amounts out of the market this week and I'm happy not trying for more with today's action.

**JIBBBY** · 05-13-22, 08:08 AM

Originally posted by d2bets

Amazing how people lack perspective:

The S&P 500 is up nearly 20% since Biden beat Trump 11/8/20 (3290>3928)
Same period 11/4/20 to 5/11/18 (2163>2721 up 25.8%)
Not appreciably different. And that was before the huge correction late 2018.
Perception is a funny, and inaccurate, thing.

Amazing how lack of perspective influences the left.

Energy independence was key under Trump to fuel a strong economy. Biden killed that. That's just for starters. Enjoy the high gas prices now.

**Greget** · 05-13-22, 08:24 AM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

Amazing how lack of perspective influences the left.

Energy independence was key under Trump to fuel a strong economy. Biden killed that. That's just for starters. Enjoy the high gas prices now.

Except we are exporting more oil now than then...therefore your entire argument falls apart. This is almost as bad as you saying a 5 point drop in the DOW was the same as a 5% drop.

**Madison** · 05-13-22, 08:52 AM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

No I'm retired. I want bitcoin to skyrocket along with the stock market and it did under the Trump presidency and we got spoiled. I'm not a hater.

I just know why this and the inflation crap is happening. Printed too much money and the Biden economics which is spend and give as much as possible isn't working! Clamp down on regulations and green new deals..

I can not disagree with you here ... I just know why this and the inflation crap is happening. Printed too much money and the Biden economics which is spend and give as much as possible isn't working!

**Madison** · 05-13-22, 09:08 AM

National Debt carrying charge

I'm going to leave this statement open for debate, or smarter people to comment:

What is/was the carrying charge to finance the 30 or so Trillion national debt currently? I would like to be a "fly on the wall" to understand who and what is/will influence the seemingly inevitable increase in interest rates. Not even bringing into the conversation the carrying charge of SSN and Medicare entitlements. There must be a lot of pressure on the FED. I have been saying for years to anyone that would listen that inflation and devaluation of our fiat currency was likely the only way out.

Milwaukee M, probably has the answer to the following in his back pocket. The carrying charge on the debt at 0% versus the likely 2.5% or 3% on the horizon?

**Madison** · 05-13-22, 09:18 AM

Another question ... ARM's

Home prices have been "to the moon" and young people have over paid and over financed these purchases.

Does anyone understand the FED's MBS and banks holdings of mortgages with rates that will adjust in the near future? To my knowledge a 5/1 is the most popular? In the face of rising rates this is a Tsunami on the horizon that, if highly leveraged, could be the next coming of 2008.

I just hope saner minds did not allow folks to take an ARM with rates at 0!! 2018 when rates were rising may be a likely point of pain.

I have a friend in the mortgage origination business that would likely have some insight if anyone else is interested and we don't have an easy resource here.

Best to all!!

**Poker_Beast** · 05-13-22, 12:20 PM

Iâ€™ve seen a lot of headlines that ARM mortgage demand is way up. Itâ€™s a good point and definitely could lead to bigger issues with increasing rates.

**milwaukee mike** · 05-13-22, 07:30 PM

Originally posted by d2bets

Amazing how people lack perspective:

The S&P 500 is up nearly 20% since Biden beat Trump 11/8/20 (3290>3928)
Same period 11/4/20 to 5/11/18 (2163>2721 up 25.8%)
Not appreciably different. And that was before the huge correction late 2018.
Perception is a funny, and inaccurate, thing.

s&p 500 might be up overall, but so is inflation... and the decades-long bull market in fixed income/bonds is totally gone

someone holding a 60/40 mix of long-term stocks and long-term bonds has just gotten crushed this year... probably down 15%+ while inflation runs 10%

**trobin31** · 05-16-22, 07:20 AM

This is a very good time to start averaging into tech stocks as well as energy IMO...the liquidity crisis is just getting started, layoffs are starting, very little chance we don't see a major recession and stagflation is likely the base case...best case inflation and bond yields start to decline by end of the year so Fed can begin to lift their foot off the brakes going into 2023...I am trading volatility indexes and shorting tech at key resistances while adding to long term positions

**Enkhbat** · 05-16-22, 10:18 AM

Inflation is really hurting the average Joe, whereas S&P500 being up or down certain percentage doesn't really matter that much to most people.

**Slurry Pumper** · 05-16-22, 06:13 PM

The rally today kind of petered out and as the SPY sits now at around the fat ass 400 spot. Right about where I said it would have to recapture to even get me to sniff a rally situation. So now the new number for tomorrow moves up to the $405 spot once again. I think we actually catch a bid here this week and the SPY is off to $415 before the end of the week. For the IWM its $187, QQQ going to $316.50. All of this good stuff if and only if the banks can also find a way to rise. So the key is XLF heading towards $35.
BTW I suggested gold was coming down to bounce off of a former breakout area and so far it has spiked and today it stopped going down at least. As you all know I'm stacked past my ass with gold nuggets. I did just today buy my kids and now grand kids their annual Christmas gift of a 5 ounce chunk a piece of gold. So I guess I'm in for this being the bottom. Laying the crystal ballz on the chopping block here again as I wouldn't say that gold is looking good here. If it doesn't hold this area of $1800, we could be looking at $1700 in short order and if that happens I'll probably buy next years chunks for the degenerate ungrateful little bastards. Ill be crying in the short term and feeling a little ass pain, but I think in a few years I'll be right and gold will fly again.

**milwaukee mike** · 05-16-22, 07:45 PM

Originally posted by Slurry Pumper

The rally today kind of petered out and as the SPY sits now at around the fat ass 400 spot. Right about where I said it would have to recapture to even get me to sniff a rally situation. So now the new number for tomorrow moves up to the $405 spot once again. I think we actually catch a bid here this week and the SPY is off to $415 before the end of the week. For the IWM its $187, QQQ going to $316.50. All of this good stuff if and only if the banks can also find a way to rise. So the key is XLF heading towards $35.
BTW I suggested gold was coming down to bounce off of a former breakout area and so far it has spiked and today it stopped going down at least. As you all know I'm stacked past my ass with gold nuggets. I did just today buy my kids and now grand kids their annual Christmas gift of a 5 ounce chunk a piece of gold. So I guess I'm in for this being the bottom. Laying the crystal ballz on the chopping block here again as I wouldn't say that gold is looking good here. If it doesn't hold this area of $1800, we could be looking at $1700 in short order and if that happens I'll probably buy next years chunks for the degenerate ungrateful little bastards. Ill be crying in the short term and feeling a little ass pain, but I think in a few years I'll be right and gold will fly again.

me too, and i'm selling 170 puts on paper gold for every strike date

**RangeFinder** · 05-17-22, 11:10 AM

Originally posted by Slurry Pumper

The rally today kind of petered out and as the SPY sits now at around the fat ass 400 spot. Right about where I said it would have to recapture to even get me to sniff a rally situation. So now the new number for tomorrow moves up to the $405 spot once again. I think we actually catch a bid here this week and the SPY is off to $415 before the end of the week. For the IWM its $187, QQQ going to $316.50. All of this good stuff if and only if the banks can also find a way to rise. So the key is XLF heading towards $35.
BTW I suggested gold was coming down to bounce off of a former breakout area and so far it has spiked and today it stopped going down at least. As you all know I'm stacked past my ass with gold nuggets. I did just today buy my kids and now grand kids their annual Christmas gift of a 5 ounce chunk a piece of gold. So I guess I'm in for this being the bottom. Laying the crystal ballz on the chopping block here again as I wouldn't say that gold is looking good here. If it doesn't hold this area of $1800, we could be looking at $1700 in short order and if that happens I'll probably buy next years chunks for the degenerate ungrateful little bastards. Ill be crying in the short term and feeling a little ass pain, but I think in a few years I'll be right and gold will fly again.

I don 't think we're done correcting yet, Slur. I don't think we'll fall a bunch, but I see the SPY going to 380 before we bounce back towards the end of the month. My opinion. I think there are still the massive headwinds that are making traders come in and out of the market, and thus, the way back down. It will end soon though, I think many traders will end up buying some long term equities instead of grinding out day to day. That's how these bear markets usually end, your traders just get tired and end up buying long term until the markets get back to where it began before the correction.

**Madison** · 05-17-22, 02:49 PM

I'm not sure how many times I've posted similar, but keep your eyes on Lithium stocks.

They get flushed out with the bathwater on down days and rebound exponentially.

I am way overweight to the point I'm getting a little uncomfortable but cash cow here!!

**RangeFinder** · 05-18-22, 08:49 AM

Markets are weak due to the profit taking from yesterday. Again, it's the short term traders controlling the markets right now. It's what happens when the economy is tanking with inflation. Should end by end of summer IMO. But for the time being, this is what we will be dealing with.

**d2bets** · 05-18-22, 10:28 AM

Originally posted by RangeFinder

Markets are weak due to the profit taking from yesterday. Again, it's the short term traders controlling the markets right now. It's what happens when the economy is tanking with inflation. Should end by end of summer IMO. But for the time being, this is what we will be dealing with.

Absolutely nothing changed between Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday. Just traders taking it up and down, up and down. Capitulation still has not happened though, so lower low seems likely to me. I know you said 380 which is possible, but I'd guess more like 370.

What are you thinking ends by end of summer? Inflation? Maybe. Then is that followed by recession or by resumption of times. Rate of inflation will probably recede, but even so prices will be seriously elevated with purchasing power in the tank. So hard to forecast because most people alive now really haven't experienced inflation like this in their lifetime.

**gauchojake** · 05-18-22, 10:34 AM

**Greget** · 05-18-22, 10:45 AM

Originally posted by Slurry Pumper

Don't worry that rise in the market will soon evaporate, its only been a little more than 15 months.

It looks like the SPY is going to bounce here at the $385 spot. Or at least stop going down for a while. First thing is first however lets see if they can recapture 400 and keep it for a little bit before saying we have a rescue rally. As you may have guessed I got out of all the PUTS I had going on as we approached and then bounced off the 385 spot. I got similar numbers for the IWM, and QQQs. I didn't take any long positions yet and probably wont going into the weekend. I extracted some hefty amounts out of the market this week and I'm happy not trying for more with today's action.

If you know the market evaporate because Biden = bad, why not go all in on puts? That's the difference between partisan hacks and serious traders.

**Slurry Pumper** · 05-18-22, 11:19 AM

Originally posted by Greget

If you know the market evaporate because Biden = bad, why not go all in on puts? That's the difference between partisan hacks and serious traders.

You haven't been following this thread for long have you. I fully have long term Puts in QQQ, SPY, and IWM.
Don't mistake my weekly trades for my long term outlook.
Just today I got rid of calls when the SPY failed to hold 405. I'm back on the short term put train to 360-370 area. I originally thought that the SPY may get to 415 on this run. The market is weak but nothing goes straight down or up, except that cyrpto that blew up the other day.