Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

[HockeyRocks]

These tariffs are insignificant. China wants no problems with the US. We boost up their entire economy.

What evidence do you have to say tariffs are insignificant? Economist i have heard say differently..

[homie1975]

Lol. You have got to chill the fukk out. Seriously.

If you really feel this way, I’d encourage you to dump it all.

i know Opie but losing 7% in less than 24 hrs is tough to take, even though it's paper money. all my fault but still fukkin hurts

[HockeyRocks]

no i think feb first week was a correction. this crushing since yesterday was all trade war, literally nothing else. not a correction - it is total panic selling

Not only a trade war, an analyst at GS was saying today that inflation is going to be worse than what people think and hit faster than what people think...

[RoyBacon]

We will get a rally starting soon. Fresh batch of new highs in '18 a coming.

[d2bets]

Not only a trade war, an analyst at GS was saying today that inflation is going to be worse than what people think and hit faster than what people think...

Hand-in-hand.

[homie1975]

We will get a rally starting soon. Fresh batch of new highs in '18 a coming.

roy
most of us want to believe you. tell us why. we know you're a big time bull but please give us the reasoning. make us believe. this choppiness due to the rates, the tariffs, facebook, analyst warnings about a market overvalued and inflation on the way.

make us believe, roy

[RoyBacon]

roy
most of us want to believe you. tell us why. we know you're a big time bull but please give us the reasoning. make us believe. this choppiness due to the rates, the tariffs, facebook, analyst warnings about a market overvalued and inflation on the way.

make us believe, roy

This sell off is nothing to worry about. I mentioned Monday this was an end of the quarter week and the mrkt would be down. And up next week. Funds want to show some cash.

The play here is if you believe the quarter was strong you need to get long. The 1st earnings reports will be out in the 2nd week of April. I think they will be stunning. 4th qtr was good even with hurricane related interference. These 1st qtr reports will be the first we see with the 21% tax rate so costs are going to fall, margins widen.

Of course my scenario could be overrun by world events, inflation fears and others. But if we stay on script we are going to see a great 1st qtr, one of the best in decades. 2nd qtr too. Prices going higher.

[d2bets]

This sell off is nothing to worry about. I mentioned Monday this was an end of the quarter week and the mrkt would be down. And up next week. Funds want to show some cash.

The play here is if you believe the quarter was strong you need to get long. The 1st earnings reports will be out in the 2nd week of April. I think they will be stunning. 4th qtr was good even with hurricane related interference. These 1st qtr reports will be the first we see with the 21% tax rate so costs are going to fall, margins widen.

Of course my scenario could be overrun by world events, inflation fears and others. But if we stay on script we are going to see a great 1st qtr, one of the best in decades. 2nd qtr too. Prices going higher.

Easy out. It's already happened. Trump needs to back off and then you might be right.

[RoyBacon]

Easy out. It's already happened. Trump needs to back off and then you might be right.

You are too fixated on the POTUS. No one except hardcore libtards think the US POTUS is in any trouble that could affect the market. We are all sweating those 1st qtr numbers that will start coming out in a week or two.

[d2bets]

You are too fixated on the POTUS. No one except hardcore libtards think the US POTUS is in any trouble that could affect the market. We are all sweating those 1st qtr numbers that will start coming out in a week or two.

Normally US POTUS doesn't affect shit. But when the idiot is throwing around tariffs, yeah, that's difference. He had managed to mostly stay out of the well for a year.

[guitarjosh]

I'm wondering if we're making a double bottom pattern in the market, maybe something similar to what we saw in August 2015 - February 2016. We might see a flush Monday morning, but I doubt this is the end of the bull.

[homie1975]

I'm wondering if we're making a double bottom pattern in the market, maybe something similar to what we saw in August 2015 - February 2016. We might see a flush Monday morning, but I doubt this is the end of the bull.

josh
from your mouth to the stock gods' ears. if the bull is over for the next few years, i am fukked with what i am holding right now

[RoyBacon]

Normally US POTUS doesn't affect shit. But when the idiot is throwing around tariffs, yeah, that's difference. He had managed to mostly stay out of the well for a year.

He campaigned on them. Everyone knew they were coming. He has kept nearly every promise so far.

Sometimes markets need an excuse to sell off. Especially after a market has run up 33%.

No one can or should draw inference from a day or two.

If we get blow out 1st qtr numbers we could be in new record territory pretty fast.

[RoyBacon]

Market futures open up very strong, about +150 on the Dow. At least indicating that Friday PM selloff is not picking up where it left off.

If the Chinese market, which has been beaten up worse than wall st recently, opens higher we could maybe see a global rebound.

The situation is 4 trading days left until the end of the qtr. Holiday week. I like the next two weeks up. Could still be some selling Mon and Tues as funds balance out the qtr.

[guitarjosh]

josh
from your mouth to the stock gods' ears. if the bull is over for the next few years, i am fukked with what i am holding right now

So why don't you change your portfolio if we go to a bear market?

[homie1975]

So why don't you change your portfolio if we go to a bear market?

i'm holding stuff that is bullish. i'm not sophisticated enough (yet) to go the other way and become a bear. right now i am simply holding strong and not going to panic sell. i'm prepared to hold these positions for at least 3Y if i need to

[RoyBacon]

I would at a minimum hold until we see 2nd qtr numbers, mid July. The growth is real. Those wage increases for January were a tell-tale sign. If we see a weak GDP number say 2.4 or lower then we have a different game. Not happening imho.

[guitarjosh]

As of right now the Nasdaq will open over 1% higher. Looks like we reached a trade deal with South Korea, and we're working toward one with China.

BTW, again, you probably won't see a nasty bear market until we first get a yield curve inversion.

[RoyBacon]

As of right now the Nasdaq will open over 1% higher. Looks like we reached a trade deal with South Korea, and we're working toward one with China.

BTW, again, you probably won't see a nasty bear market until we first get a yield curve inversion.

Too bad China is not in rally mode. But just down slightly.

At this point I wonder how much market forces control the curve? The gov is auctioning heavily into the short side. If the 30 yr gets heavily auctioned it's yield is going to rise. But buy my theory or not I don't at all see an inversion coming. I'd buy the 10 yr and sell the 30 yr here.

Back to the markets.. probably a good thing china is down and US futures are strong. Probably see a couple of days this week where tariffs look less likely and we get a global bounce.

[guitarjosh]

Too bad China is not in rally mode. But just down slightly.

At this point I wonder how much market forces control the curve? The gov is auctioning heavily into the short side. If the 30 yr gets heavily auctioned it's yield is going to rise. But buy my theory or not I don't at all see an inversion coming. I'd buy the 10 yr and sell the 30 yr here.

Back to the markets.. probably a good thing china is down and US futures are strong. Probably see a couple of days this week where tariffs look less likely and we get a global bounce.

It's normal to hear that it's different this time, but I'm sure the next curve inversion will be a harbinger of a recession like the last were. The thing is that you have at least a year from an inversion until a recession, last 3 well over a year.

[floridagolfer]

Also, sometimes the market just goes down as well as up. You don't have to over analyze each day and find a reason for it.

You're absolutely right. CNBC.com is the absolute worst in this regard; there has to be a reason for everything, even when there isn't one.

[RoyBacon]

Looking at a VERY strong open maybe as much as +350 on the open.

Haven't checked the economic reports calendar.

Overnight China reversed course to erase losses and close with a very solid gain. Must be something someone over there said to reverse their market and give ours a shot.

[homie1975]

Looking at a VERY strong open maybe as much as +350 on the open.

Haven't checked the economic reports calendar.

Overnight China reversed course to erase losses and close with a very solid gain. Must be something someone over there said to reverse their market and give ours a shot.

yes it opened very strong let's hope it continues as the rumor is we are talking "behind the scenes" with China on a deal

[MRivera42]

up big

[homie1975]

up big

now cooled off. major rollercoaster ride for some. i am trying not to check it too often now. the ups and downs too emotional lol

[homie1975]

As of right now the Nasdaq will open over 1% higher. Looks like we reached a trade deal with South Korea, and we're working toward one with China.

BTW, again, you probably won't see a nasty bear market until we first get a yield curve inversion.

Josh
last night when you reported this to us, did you go hunting online for it or is there a particular site you like which mentioned south korea and china? obviously china and US are in the news daily, but the south korea agreement was under the radar. great catch, though. i just want to know did you actively look for that info?

[RoyBacon]

Libs got a little quite around here?

[guitarjosh]

Josh
last night when you reported this to us, did you go hunting online for it or is there a particular site you like which mentioned south korea and china? obviously china and US are in the news daily, but the south korea agreement was under the radar. great catch, though. i just want to know did you actively look for that info?

It was on zerohedge, and reported on other sites like the NYT and Bloomberg. I didn't actively hunt for it other than looking on zerohedge's twitter feed and getting push notifications from the WSJ on my phone.

[homie1975]

Rumors flew overnight that China would buy semis so of course stuff like SOXL that i hold and other semi stocks all jumped overnight but little guys like me (and most of us) could never have bought those low overnight so the big guys win again. If I wasn't holding SOXL I'd be out in the cold on that semis rumor

[opie1988]

Libs got a little quite around here?

LOL.

Is the sky not falling???

[jjgold]

Impossible to predict day-to-day price movements in stocks or Indices or currency

[guitarjosh]

Impossible to predict day-to-day price movements in stocks or Indices or currency

You shouldn't be investing that way.

[homie1975]

a small pop overnight but settled in around Even the first 45 mins of the session

[RoyBacon]

We may see a pattern like yesterday. Strong open, a round of mid session selling and strong close.

Today will be the end of end of the qtr window dressing. Could be volatile but I would not expect heavy volume the next few days as everyone sits on their positions.

Be a steady buyer in here but no need to chase.

[homie1975]

We may see a pattern like yesterday. Strong open, a round of mid session selling and strong close.

Today will be the end of end of the qtr window dressing. Could be volatile but I would not expect heavy volume the next few days as everyone sits on their positions.

Be a steady buyer in here but no need to chase.

Roy
do you see another pop happening in early April?