Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

**homie1975** · 03-29-18, 10:21 AM

Originally posted by RoyBacon

Looking good in here. Love today and love next week.

Roy
i think it will cool off by day's end. not enough volume on the upside to sustain it. like you've said before, i think we need those strong earnings to give the rally the support it needs for the multi day upward trend.

i'll be surprised if we gain more than .75% on the s&p and nasdaq by day's end today, which are the two i care the most about

**RoyBacon** · 03-29-18, 10:37 AM

Originally posted by homie1975

Roy
i think it will cool off by day's end. not enough volume on the upside to sustain it. like you've said before, i think we need those strong earnings to give the rally the support it needs for the multi day upward trend.

i'll be surprised if we gain more than .75% on the s&p and nasdaq by day's end today, which are the two i care the most about

I don't really agree. We saw weak afternoons this week and a little seesawing yesterday for sure. So trade history is on your side.

But this is the last day of the quarter and we are still over sold. We are off session highs but holding nicely. SPY is at 262.19. I think it's a screaming buy here. Could see a close over 264 so double the gain for the day.

**homie1975** · 03-29-18, 10:42 AM

Originally posted by RoyBacon

I don't really agree. We saw weak afternoons this week and a little seesawing yesterday for sure. So trade history is on your side.

But this is the last day of the quarter and we are still over sold. We are off session highs but holding nicely. SPY is at 262.19. I think it's a screaming buy here. Could see a close over 264 so double the gain for the day.

i hope you're right

**RoyBacon** · 03-29-18, 11:36 AM

262.75 still looking good. Has not broken below 262 since getting above it an hour after the open.

I bought 265 calls this AM. I think we can get over 271 in the next couple of weeks. Long way to go but think we get there.

**RoyBacon** · 03-29-18, 12:38 PM

263, holding at the highs. Yes, light volume. One wonders if she will hold if a little selling starts.

**RoyBacon** · 03-29-18, 01:37 PM

264.25 Rockin!

**homie1975** · 03-29-18, 03:06 PM

Originally posted by RoyBacon

I don't really agree. We saw weak afternoons this week and a little seesawing yesterday for sure. So trade history is on your side.

But this is the last day of the quarter and we are still over sold. We are off session highs but holding nicely. SPY is at 262.19. I think it's a screaming buy here. Could see a close over 264 so double the gain for the day.

good call Roy. i was way off w the prediction which is why i am still a beginner with a long way to go.

even after this decent rally i am still down $3425 or 6.75% so i am still in a Red position pretty significantly

really hoping we get the weeklong rallies you are thinking of next mon 4/2 through fri 4/13

**RoyBacon** · 03-29-18, 07:35 PM

Originally posted by homie1975

good call Roy. i was way off w the prediction which is why i am still a beginner with a long way to go.

even after this decent rally i am still down $3425 or 6.75% so i am still in a Red position pretty significantly

really hoping we get the weeklong rallies you are thinking of next mon 4/2 through fri 4/13

Mentioned earlier I think next week will give us a strong clue how the year will go.

We closed soft and futures are red now. BUT.. we have start of Q2 Monday and I think she jumps right out of the gate and runs.

**homie1975** · 03-30-18, 09:03 AM

market closed today which is probably a good thing. will the three day weekend yield some better news that China and US are still talking and we get more pops next week

**RoyBacon** · 03-30-18, 09:49 AM

My play for next week. 220 SPY calls. Bought at 1.02.

I'm betting we come out firing Monday AM.

**homie1975** · 03-30-18, 10:43 AM

Originally posted by RoyBacon

My play for next week. 220 SPY calls. Bought at 1.02.

I'm betting we come out firing Monday AM.

All the Best ROY!!!!

**jt315** · 03-30-18, 10:52 AM

Originally posted by RoyBacon

My play for next week. 220 SPY calls. Bought at 1.02.

I'm betting we come out firing Monday AM.

Careful Roy . Someone around here predicted Mueller wil be gone by then .
We know the market doesn't like uncertainty .

**homie1975** · 03-30-18, 11:11 AM

Originally posted by jt315

Careful Roy . Someone around here predicted Mueller wil be gone by then .
We know the market doesn't like uncertainty .

JT that has been on mind. if trump directs mueller's firing, it could get crazy politically and no doubt the market will be adversely affected.
it's a big uncertainty hovering over the market and it is very uncomfortable

**RoyBacon** · 03-30-18, 11:52 AM

I'd put the likelihood of that around 1%.

The biggest short term risk are numbers coming out too strong and spooking the bond market. First part of April could be one of the most volatile time frames ever. Strong earnings vs inflation/rate increases.

There is not a ton on the economic calendar next week which is good for the bulls.

next WEEK'S MAJOR U.S. ECONOMIC reports

9:45 am	Markit manufacturing PMI	March	--	55.7
10 am	ISM manufacturing index	March	60.0%	60.8%
10 am	Construction spending	Feb.	0.3%	0.0%
Varies	Motor vehicle sales	March	16.8 mln	17.1 mln
8:15 am	ADP employment	March	--	235,000
9:45 am	Markit services PMI	March	--	54.1
10 am	ISM nonmanufacturing index	March	59.0%	59.5%
10 am	Factory orders	Feb.	1.7%	-1.4%
8:30 am	Weekly jobless claims	3/31	222,000	215,000
8:30 am	Trade deficit	Feb.	-$57.5 bln	-$56.6 bln
8:30 am	Nonfarm payrolls	March	185,000	313,000
8:30 am	Unemployment rate	March	4.0%	4.1%
8:30 am	Average hourly earnings	March	0.2%	0.1%
3 pm	Consumer credit	Feb.	--	$14 bln

**RoyBacon** · 03-30-18, 04:08 PM

Originally posted by homie1975

All the Best ROY!!!!

Gonna buy this fugger with what I make from this Trump rally.

I'll stop by and have beer. Bout $6 million short so we got some work to do.

**homie1975** · 04-01-18, 04:08 PM

happy easter/resurrection day to Roy and Josh and all SBR posters!

let's hope for a nice lift from the market this week!!

**d2bets** · 04-01-18, 06:31 PM

Could be rough tomorrow. Trade war looming continuing to weight down markets.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">BREAKING: China says it will impose tariffs on 128 products from the United States in response to Trump's trade measures against it.</p>— The Spectator Index (@spectatorindex) <a href="https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/980579478874177537?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw"> April 1, 2018</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

**RoyBacon** · 04-01-18, 06:37 PM

Yep. Futures off 50.

I think both are positioning but it won't help the market short term.

**d2bets** · 04-01-18, 06:45 PM

If a true continued trade war happens, that's 15-20% off the markets from current. Only maybe 2-3% is priced in. Trump on the brink of doing lasting damage. I still think he'll have to back off (or he's impeached), but who knows.

**RoyBacon** · 04-01-18, 07:09 PM

Impeached? I try not to mix liberal fantasy with investing.

15% to 20% is too much. But the market could overreact. There isn't 15% of anyones profit coming from exports to China and our tariffs on them will actually help US companies so don't see a lot there. Just becomes a reason not to buy/ excuse to sell.

That story will be over right after the open. All eyes will turn towards qtrly reports. I bot a little SPY in the after market now, it's -.72. I think folks are going to realize these tariffs are background noise. It's not the real show. Real Market opens higher is my guess.

**RoyBacon** · 04-01-18, 07:15 PM

The decision to target $3 billion in U.S. imports is significant, but it's widely seen as a drop in the ocean given the size of the bilateral trading relationship. U.S. goods exported to China in 2016 totaled $115.6 billion, according to official data.
China's retaliation is "a statement of intent ... but it's not an escalation in our opinion," Steve Brice, chief investment strategist at Standard Chartered Private Bank, told CNBC on Monday.

Sounds like a lot, 128 products but it's a measly $3 billion and that's after we hit them with $60 billion if I recall correctly. This is a face saving move but won't have much affect.

**d2bets** · 04-01-18, 07:18 PM

Originally posted by RoyBacon

Impeached? I try not to mix liberal fantasy with investing.

15% to 20% is too much. But the market could overreact. There isn't 15% of anyones profit coming from exports to China and our tariffs on them will actually help US companies so don't see a lot there. Just becomes a reason not to buy/ excuse to sell.

That story will be over right after the open. All eyes will turn towards qtrly reports. I bot a little SPY in the after market now, it's -.72. I think folks are going to realize these tariffs are background noise. It's not the real show. Real Market opens higher is my guess.

That isn't the point. It's the follow-on effects. It's the inflation and the effects therefrom.

**RoyBacon** · 04-01-18, 07:26 PM

Market has rallied from down 88 to down 15 so we'll see.

The tariffs are a tax and we remember from the tax cut debates taxes add costs. Which is why you supported them ~joke~

What we know of is immaterial. But if the market senses this is the beginning of some sort of perpetual trade war then yes, we could be on square one of an ugly bear market.

Trump doesn't want a bear market 6 months from the midterms. So he won't go there.

**d2bets** · 04-01-18, 07:28 PM

Originally posted by RoyBacon

Market has rallied from down 88 to down 15 so we'll see.

The tariffs are a tax and we remember from the tax cut debates taxes add costs. Which is why you supported them ~joke~

What we know of is immaterial. But if the market senses this is the beginning of some sort of perpetual trade war then yes, we could be on square one of an ugly bear market.

Trump doesn't want a bear market. So he won't go there.

Maybe. That's the conventional thinking still. But when is he known to back down? China is not backing down.

**guitarjosh** · 04-01-18, 07:28 PM

Futures down slightly, but SPY currently green, DIA off slightly.

**homie1975** · 04-01-18, 08:03 PM

tech still getting slammed so the nasdaq is down about 30 pts premarket

**homie1975** · 04-01-18, 08:05 PM

Originally posted by d2bets

Maybe. That's the conventional thinking still. But when is he known to back down? China is not backing down.

agree. and they don't have to. if anyone has to here it is us -- trump might back down behind closed doors but we all know he will not do it publicly and show weakness. we needs lots of continued leaks that china is negotiating with us behind closed doors and it is moving in the right direction

**RoyBacon** · 04-01-18, 08:07 PM

Wish I could say I thought tech would snap out of their funk.

This feels like it could last for a while.

**homie1975** · 04-01-18, 08:22 PM

Originally posted by RoyBacon

Wish I could say I thought tech would snap out of their funk.

This feels like it could last for a while.

yea man i think i'm in for the long hall mainly due to AMZN, FB and AAPL, all for reasons we are well aware. (live and learn i guess)

**homie1975** · 04-02-18, 09:04 AM

ugly

**homie1975** · 04-02-18, 12:30 PM

Sweet Lord !!!

**d2bets** · 04-02-18, 01:34 PM

Originally posted by homie1975

Sweet Lord !!!

The Trump Effect. Maybe he's doing it on purpose so he can brag when it eventually goes back up.

**homie1975** · 04-02-18, 03:10 PM

Originally posted by d2bets

The Trump Effect. Maybe he's doing it on purpose so he can brag when it eventually goes back up.

well he shouldn't be bragging very much since Jan 26th when it comes to the market. many argue that last year's climb was due to the economic policies of the prior president which last 9-10 mos into the next regime according to economists. i am not here to make political statements because i always like some things about all presidents and some things i dislike, but the clear hard on that Trump has for china and for rich guy bezos are backfiring

**homie1975** · 04-02-18, 07:42 PM

Roy and Josh don't bail on me now! it is worry time and i need some support!!

**RoyBacon** · 04-02-18, 08:18 PM

All good. Sometimes you are the hammer sometimes the nail.

Did not expect a sharp sell off on the first day of trading for the 2nd qtr. Broke right through technical resistance.

May be some room on GLD to the upside but maybe the safest place to be is mildly long and the rest just laying on the sideline. I still think the money will be made on the upside but going to be some healing first.