Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

[NoDraMa4YoMaMa]

On the day of the sale you'll get 54.20 for each one you own. Or, before the sale you can trade those stocks for the market price. They will make a date to stop trades at some point, and the price should hover around the sale price that elon made.

thanks, thats what I thought, but why would anyone sell under 54 a share now? I dont understand the volume that is happening now

[d2bets]

Microsoft, Google and Texas Instruments getting crushed on earnings. If you thought today was bad, wait until tomorrow.

[Madison]

Yeah great. Keep your guns loaded as this will end at some point soon. Rats running from the burning fire.

[Slurry Pumper]

OK here we go with another fun filled week of stock trading. The SPY is right at support $426ish. This is a buy level here for me for another one of those day / swing trades. I think the markets are gonna try to rally the tape here early in the week, but the bears may be lurking to push even lower. So hopefully the futures don't run the tape up before the bell Monday, as I look at the futures, they are down slightly on Sunday night. Its pretty easy though, if they can't hold $426 on hourly closes tomorrow. They will run it down to the $416 spot before I will try buying again...
How about that Nasdaq you ask?
Well all the markets are the same. They ran this one right down to support as well, close to $325ish. Only difference is this one is close to the low for the year at $317.45, and if it can't hold $325 on hourly closes Monday, you can bet those PUTs that a test of the $317.50 spot will be on the table.

So from my Sunday night post I can see we are where I thought we may be. It looks like that I-Beam of bullshit is starting to show signs of buckling under the pressure, and it may be a failure on the horizon. I know I stated that I would be a buyer for the SPY at the $416 level, but with the crappy earnings on the nasdaq stocks, I'm a wait and see if the SPY can hold the low. Today the Nasdaq took out the low for the year and it is a look out below play from where I sit for now.
Other than those Puts I got today for the next couple of months on the QQQ, I'll be looking to see if the metals dip lower. People are going to need liquidity and usually they sell everything good and bad when things get bad, so I'll be there to collect maybe later this week just before the close on Friday is where I would look to target some cheap gold or silver along with the miners. Not sure about that as it will be a wait and see type of play.

[d2bets]

So from my Sunday night post I can see we are where I thought we may be. It looks like that I-Beam of bullshit is starting to show signs of buckling under the pressure, and it may be a failure on the horizon. I know I stated that I would be a buyer for the SPY at the $416 level, but with the crappy earnings on the nasdaq stocks, I'm a wait and see if the SPY can hold the low. Today the Nasdaq took out the low for the year and it is a look out below play from where I sit for now.
Other than those Puts I got today for the next couple of months on the QQQ, I'll be looking to see if the metals dip lower. People are going to need liquidity and usually they sell everything good and bad when things get bad, so I'll be there to collect maybe later this week just before the close on Friday is where I would look to target some cheap gold or silver along with the miners. Not sure about that as it will be a wait and see type of play.

What kind of a near-term support/low do you see for the SPY? Not saying it necessarily falls that low, but I don't see that much support until the mid-3700's. Wrong?

[Slurry Pumper]

Yeah under the low for the year and there isn't much to stop the fall til 3600, you can say 3700 right about that area. I have a rough time believing we would just tumble right down there, so I'll look for some spots. Nothing looks obvious now to me so far.

[homie1975]

Microsoft, Google and Texas Instruments getting crushed on earnings. If you thought today was bad, wait until tomorrow.

D2er it never fails that you show up on the most red of the red red days !!

[milwaukee mike]

options prices are really fantastic, for people selling calls/puts

i would avoid stepping in front of a truck on earnings dates, so work around those

[milwaukee mike]

I put some safety?? money into SLV and GLD. Not getting hurt to bad, but shouldn't these be steady at the least given the recent market declines. I thought these would be a contrarian play to a falling market??

if you want safety, i would go with ACTUAL gold and silver rather than the paper versions

we live in weird times, the whole financial system could certainly collapse

[Slurry Pumper]

So far this morning we have a pretty nice bounce. This is not a surprise as the SPY is right on another level of support and down in the low 400 area there will be some epic goal line defense that is needed. I would be surprised if the rescue squad didn't represent in this area for a while. The numbers stay the same, we have $420 as a start from the other day. The bulls can put that on the board as the first goal, but from there we have the weekly pivot number $426.50, then for me to have some belief in the rally it is still 432. Remember less than a week ago the SPY was hanging out around the 450 spot so in times like this the numbers to reach look like they are pretty far away but prices move quickly.

How about the downside? Well the fall of the cliff number is $410.65 for the SPY which is the only number left.
In the QQQs the next lower number is $310.50.

If your looking for a long player, it is a hold your powder type of day to see if this little bounce can hold. As I sit here the bounce is already starting to be eroded this morning. The hype machine will be needed with a feel good story to come out so I would wait and see. If the trick, trap, fool and fuk you sideways crew is running a test of the yearly lows just before exploding back up, you'll have plenty of time to jump on board that train once that move is confirmed. From where I sit however, it sure does look like a failure is just about imminent. That prediction needs to be confirmed as well too however.

[NoDraMa4YoMaMa]

thanks, thats what I thought, but why would anyone sell under 54 a share now? I dont understand the volume that is happening now

I spoke to a buddy of mine in the business. He says its not a done deal until the money is exchanged and given Elon's erratic behavior, anything can happen.

[Madison]

if you want safety, i would go with ACTUAL gold and silver rather than the paper versions

we live in weird times, the whole financial system could certainly collapse

Don't be a stranger here! Always appreciate your financial acumen.

[Madison]

if you want safety, i would go with ACTUAL gold and silver rather than the paper versions

we live in weird times, the whole financial system could certainly collapse

I have ZERO debt, a mortgage free home, and a reasonably healthy 401K. BUT, Limited liquid $$.

As far as physical gold\slv I am restricted, other than MANY firms offering avenues by which you can buy from your 401K. This is just an FYI that the overhead/commission is painful. I wasted way to much time getting involved with the prospect of doing this. Save yourself the aggravation and avoid IMHO.

[RangeFinder]

So far this morning we have a pretty nice bounce. This is not a surprise as the SPY is right on another level of support and down in the low 400 area there will be some epic goal line defense that is needed. I would be surprised if the rescue squad didn't represent in this area for a while. The numbers stay the same, we have $420 as a start from the other day. The bulls can put that on the board as the first goal, but from there we have the weekly pivot number $426.50, then for me to have some belief in the rally it is still 432. Remember less than a week ago the SPY was hanging out around the 450 spot so in times like this the numbers to reach look like they are pretty far away but prices move quickly.

How about the downside? Well the fall of the cliff number is $410.65 for the SPY which is the only number left.
In the QQQs the next lower number is $310.50.

If your looking for a long player, it is a hold your powder type of day to see if this little bounce can hold. As I sit here the bounce is already starting to be eroded this morning. The hype machine will be needed with a feel good story to come out so I would wait and see. If the trick, trap, fool and fuk you sideways crew is running a test of the yearly lows just before exploding back up, you'll have plenty of time to jump on board that train once that move is confirmed. From where I sit however, it sure does look like a failure is just about imminent. That prediction needs to be confirmed as well too however.

Love your posts, Slurry. I think timing a bottom of the market is nearly impossible given the macro conditions we face. That said, most is priced in the market and what we're seeing is an accumulation. Stocks are at a discount, no doubt. I still don't trust this market going up very much in the next few weeks nor do I see any real downside. Like you stated, it's like the markets are just waiting for any good news to rally. I think we see a flat market going into June. Tough to trade a sideways market like I see coming.

[KVB]

Good thoughts guys. I do feel the same way, but supply shortages, etc, may still have some baking in to do as far as the economy goes, and the markets as well.

That's what I'll add. China does remain a mystery, they are bull headed in their COVID policy and it will affect the rest of us.

I think numbers and news around that news cycle could create more buying opportunities for those in the accumulation phase now.

Just my coffee kicking in thoughts. I have market screens up, but it can be difficult dealing with both sports and stocks. And right now, wed morning, sports need my attention.

[Slurry Pumper]

Good thoughts guys. I do feel the same way, but supply shortages, etc, may still have some baking in to do as far as the economy goes, and the markets as well.

That's what I'll add. China does remain a mystery, they are bull headed in their COVID policy and it will affect the rest of us.

I think numbers and news around that news cycle could create more buying opportunities for those in the accumulation phase now.

Just my coffee kicking in thoughts. I have market screens up, but it can be difficult dealing with both sports and stocks. And right now, wed morning, sports need my attention.

The stock market is in a holding pattern until something happens, and the SPY is hanging out at the 420ish level. It may be pushed one way or the other today, but all in all it feels like a day of rest with a little rebound mixed in.

[homie1975]

tremendous insights by you guys and GREAT to have MILWAUKEE MIKE back after a long hiatus LOL

[Slurry Pumper]

Ok so yesterday the market manipulators were in there trying to keep things from collapsing. It almost worked but eventually the day started and ended about where it started. I think it is a mark of a change in direction. Today they will be goosing the market, and at 8:30 the GDP number come out. Good or bad, it doesn't matter, the market will take a little goosing rocket ride up. The numbers haven't changed $420, $426.50, and $432 are the number to look for in this rally. I wouldn't be surprised if one of these 3 numbers is where the SPY closes today.

So some of you know that I'm stacking gold in my ass for a bug out scenario so I thought it would be a good time to go over the gold chart to show what I think is going to happen. Its a forever long term play for me and it generally moves slowly.
Looking at the 5 year chart with daily closes, you can see how the price ran up to a all time high in July of 2020, then came back down and started to make a giant bull flag pattern for the last few years, occasionally knocking its head on that yellow dotted line a few time before breaking out a few months ago.




So below is the 6 Month chart with daily closes, or basically the same chart as above just zoomed in. The circled area would be a back test of a former breakout area. Its pretty far away right now but if it gets there, its a back the truck up buy area. Right now the price is hanging out above the 100 DMA which is another buying spot.
Overall this pattern is a good looking chart for long term bullishness. I expect gold to back test the former breakout area which may mean the price goes down to $1800, and at that point people will be telling me that gold is old guy stuff, and I better get some of that newly created Slurry Pumping coin in the Crypto world and get with the new times. BTW I will gets me some Bitcoin eventually, but I'm gonna wait for the 20000 different coins to consolidate a little bit and the market to crash back down before I jump on board. That will probably happen in 2023 sometime.
Anyway, long term this is the sweet spot for the gold crowd. I buy both physical and paper gold every year so of course I prefer the real stuff. Premiums will be high but if you buy between now and the end of the summer, I think you'll be happier in less than 5 years about that decision.

[Slurry Pumper]

Just to toss up another chart of Gold here, the 3 year chart with monthly closes shows the same thing as I mentioned before, but the back testing buy spot has some more support from the 20 MMA. The last couple of months shows a large breakout candle then a bull flag pattern. A full retracement to the back testing breakout area doesn't have to happen which is why I will be buying on the way down to that spot. It could turn around right at the 100 also and be considered a back test. The stochastics are rising, MACD is also on the upswing. That little line in the middle of the volume bars which is my own indicator is pretty low, but it is green and it is climbing.

[Slurry Pumper]

OK pretty much what I said was going to happen, happened. We got a horrid GDP report where the numbers came in and missed by 2.5% when a typical number is like 1 to 2%. That's like asking me to design a pump to circulate water in a small fountain out at the end of your driveway, and me coming in with a pump that can facilitate Niagara Falls' level of flow. Then despite that the market takes off anyway, so like I said good or bad the market was taking off today. That plunger team and new media hype machine have done it again so crisis adverted for this week at least. Tomorrow it will be more of the same and I see SPY closing above $432 going into the weekend.

Keep in mind however that we pretty much have Stagflation folks. The FED is F'd, they can't really not raise rates because inflation is really running at around 20% in real terms, and they can't raise rates because the economy is grinding to a halt. We are in for a rough ride people high unemployment, high prices, low quality of life, it will be like the 70's all over again. I'm going back to not shaving my nuts just to remind myself how what it was like.

[RangeFinder]

OK pretty much what I said was going to happen, happened. We got a horrid GDP report where the numbers came in and missed by 2.5% when a typical number is like 1 to 2%. That's like asking me to design a pump to circulate water in a small fountain out at the end of your driveway, and me coming in with a pump that can facilitate Niagara Falls' level of flow. Then despite that the market takes off anyway, so like I said good or bad the market was taking off today. That plunger team and new media hype machine have done it again so crisis adverted for this week at least. Tomorrow it will be more of the same and I see SPY closing above $432 going into the weekend.

Keep in mind however that we pretty much have Stagflation folks. The FED is F'd, they can't really not raise rates because inflation is really running at around 20% in real terms, and they can't raise rates because the economy is grinding to a halt. We are in for a rough ride people high unemployment, high prices, low quality of life, it will be like the 70's all over again. I'm going back to not shaving my nuts just to remind myself how what it was like.

I was rollin with 'ya until that last sentence.

[Slurry Pumper]

We will need the plunger team to come in again today as that FANG goose rally is already fizzling out. If you decided to buy some of those tech stocks yesterday, please go place your head on the front steps of your house and have your ole lady stomp on it because tech is dead people for the time being and there is still a shit load of down side to come. Yesterday was a highly manipulated operation designed to prop up the market, or what I call the I-beam of bullshit.
Today the monthly close is going to be put in the books, so I'm excited to pour over the charts this weekend so I can get a better picture of what the F is happening. The next couple of weeks we have the FED coming in and a whole bunch of earnings and other stuff so I'll have a better idea of how it all falls apart. It will eventually, but probably not right now.
I think we get an inside day to finish up into the weekend. So down to the numbers, there is $426.50 as the pivot still, they let that slide and we are looking at the $420 level and the line in the sand of $415 before the ultimate collapse number of $410. I don't think that happens and there would be an epic bull / bear / Plunger team battle if the market started to look that way. On the upside, we are looking for $432 to start with. I would be surprised to see a real strong move to the $437 level, but if it happens the goal would be the top of a break down candle and that is the top of a break down candle.
All in all, I expect a quiet day or inside trading day from yesterday's big move, or a day of digestion. Like always, I sit here ready to trade either way.

[RangeFinder]

The SPY may go to 435-436 on Monday. However, this would create a head and shoulders for a 4 month chart on the SPY. If it does this, we are probably heading down in a big way. But not before one more mini rally, IMO.

[k13]

All those covid gains will be erased soon.

[Greget]

The bottom 90% of Americans held about 11% of stocks,

honestly, people don't give a shit if this thing tanks.

[d2bets]

All those covid gains will be erased soon.

Maybe, but still even after today the S&P 500 is up around 25% from the pre-Covid ATH Feb 2020.

[RangeFinder]

The bottom 90% of Americans held about 11% of stocks,

honestly, people don't give a shit if this thing tanks.

I think there are a few here that do. Some of us trade in and out, so it does effect us.

[RangeFinder]

We could see a good rally Monday, some are saying the bottom is here. Some being the key word.

[guitarjosh]

The bottom 90% of Americans held about 11% of stocks,

honestly, people don't give a shit if this thing tanks.

That's still a lot of stock, and when they see their 401k statements they're going to care.

[guitarjosh]

We could see a good rally Monday, some are saying the bottom is here. Some being the key word.

They better hope so, if the S&P 500 falls another 1% soon, we're probably heading another 10%-15% lower. It's even worse in the technology sector.

[Slurry Pumper]

A systematic beat down today ending barely above the look out below number for the SPY, but below the 20 MMA. It also closes on the low for the Month, Week, and Day. I'll be looking at all the charts over the weekend but I think next week the direction is in the FEDs hands. He can say F the regular guys and keep the interest rates at 1/4%. That would move the market up and the big boys would continue to make money on asset inflation as the regular guy pays 8 buck a gallon for fuel and gold starts to rise pretty quickly. Or he could move the interest rates up 3/4% and the market would immediately take a dive and by the end of the week the SPY would be hanging around 3600, but the inflationary numbers might be paused with the relentless march up. A 3rd choice is he could move the consensus 1/2% and the news hype machine will move the market back up from the edge of the cliff here and the whole collapse would be delayed with a things are alright story. The move would move up quicker if the rate only goes up 1/4%. It would delay the inevitable collapse but hey that's in the future and short sightedness is what is normally done so 1/2% is my bet.

[milwaukee mike]

I have ZERO debt, a mortgage free home, and a reasonably healthy 401K. BUT, Limited liquid $$.

As far as physical gold\slv I am restricted, other than MANY firms offering avenues by which you can buy from your 401K. This is just an FYI that the overhead/commission is painful. I wasted way to much time getting involved with the prospect of doing this. Save yourself the aggravation and avoid IMHO.

yeah inside of a 401k it's not a good idea... if you had funds elsewhere, i would have the worst possible taxable stuff inside the retirement account, namely junk bonds paying big interest... the best possible taxable stuff is of course long-term capital gains, qualified dividends, real estate, and physical gold/silver (because nobody knows your basis in those, or even knows if you bought/sold)

a lot of people recommend holding physical real estate or gold in a retirement account, that is a HORRIBLE IDEA, especially with real estate, because the depreciation does you no good, and if it's not in a retirement account, someone gets a step up in basis on a death, or could convert rental property to personal, etc

[milwaukee mike]

The bottom 90% of Americans held about 11% of stocks,

honestly, people don't give a shit if this thing tanks.

if/when the stock market and/or bond market crash (i would say the bond market has already crashed), it almost has to crash the economy and real estate prices... the bigger problem is that free money will eventually dry up and we will probably have food riots in my lifetime

the federal government won't even have enough inflows to cover interest on the national debt, if rates go to 3.5% on 100 trillion (including underfunded ss/med) that's $3.5 trillion which just so happens to be total collections of the federal government

hard to have a balanced budget when every dollar you take in just goes to interest

[Mike Huntertz]

The bottom 90% of Americans held about 11% of stocks,

honestly, people don't give a shit if this thing tanks.

The 11% hold stocks directly. A lot more hold them indirectly!
Pension funds invest in the stock market.

[Madison]

That's still a lot of stock, and when they see their 401k statements they're going to care.

And for most that's 2 months from now.