Little bit of a pull back this morning but since it is the last day of the month, I don't expect things to just fall apart. If anything there will probably be some gains today. The starting tomorrow I could see the rally continuing on some fake news and hype for another week or so to try and pull as much as they can out of the relief rally that is going on.
-
Comment -
So a bunch of nothing happened yesterday. Today is actually pretty important. I think tbe markets get caught in a fairly tight trading range until the end of the week and probably longer before the next sizable move.Comment -
Market manipulation? Goldman projects 75% drop in Lithium (60K-15K) and several other minerals (Nickel?) and my Lithium portfolio gets CRUSHED!!Comment -
They regularly come out with the this sector is going to suck going forward only to invest in it and before you know it a couple of years later it ends up being the hottest sector.Comment -
My point exactly. Having the power to throw some subjective futuristic comment about the possibility of Lithium cratering 75% and the affect it had on the Lithium market is mostly unwarranted. Based on what. I'd like to see their short interest before the call. WAY to much power/leverage!!Comment -
you're supposed to short or stay neutral at resistances
do not buy until resistances convert to support
back to same level is not always strength
especially with the algos programmed to go there anyway
then they can flip the other way
some rules say 1 close is enough for conversion
others say 3 closes
conservatives have said 5 in old tech books.Comment -
Its all about the range that has been setting up this week. The markets are taking a break from the run up last week, but they're not really getting rejected so the high end of the range is around $415.50, and the low end for me is right around $405ish. In between that is a whatever kind of tape. Since this is typical market behavior, I suspect that sometime in the future there will be another leg higher. To where? How about a low target of $425, and my high water mark of $445. Of course this isn't going to happen this week, but don't be surprised if by the end of June of sometime in the middle of July we find the SPY up at this level. This is not to say that the low is in however, its just a rally in a bear market.Comment -
For ALB, I like the $227, 221.50, 204.50, and the goal line defense spot of 191 if it gets there. I don't think it gets much lower than the $221.50 spot but if Goldman will Sack you keeps up the bad vibes, they may drive down the price more than expected in the short term.Comment -
I've been slowly adding on dips since the pandemic lows. I'm preservation of capital so it kind of meets my profile.
Buy? Well GS threw a BIG wrench in to the whole sector 2 days ago, so quite possible. I haven't seen any other parallel sentiment elsewhere. We're in inflationary times (Materials), trying to curtail our dependance to China for LI, so I don't see their logic for the devaluation of the referenced materials???Comment -
Thanks for cluing me in on the SE.
It put in a sign of reversal in the monthly chart in May with da hammer doji. On the last 4 weeks going on the weekly chart things have the look of coming off the bottom. This seems like a pretty good time to start accumulating for long term plays. I see the 85ish level as resistance then 95.50.
I would be have caution with the overall slowdown in the next year, but for now I may start buying some of this a little at a time while waiting for resistance levels to start being reached.Comment -
Thoughts on $SIGA anyone?Comment -
A few I'm doing quite well with ... BYDDY, INVZ, JOBY, LAZR, PXD. GL.Comment -
At the end of the day the SPY shoots up to close at $417.44. Is this a breakout from the range I stated earlier of around $415.50ish? Maybe. A look around shows things like QQQ, XLF, IWM, $DJT, SMH all making the breakout move late in the day, so tomorrow's unemployment numbers will be the catalyst that will either have a big breakout and short squeeze going into the weekend, or a complete break down and back into the range for the week. Remember I think the unemployment numbers are about as fake as they come along with several other numbers they toss out there so we have to go into the game to figure out what the manipulation play is, and to me that means we have a goldilocks number coming out that sets the market off into the weekend on a rally where people will be saying the recession and bear market are a thing of the past. Of course it isn't, but I think that will be the narrative.
If that doesn't happen and today's bust out ends up being a spike through and recapture of the range, then we will have to wait until the close and likely next week for another shot at a larger move.
So don't be surprised to see a short squeeze tomorrow, I put that at about 65%.Comment -
Well it was a bummer as the markets all ran up on Thursday to break out above a recent trading range and closed there. Then on Friday we got the much anticipated good jobs report and the market sold off and dip back into the trading range it has been in al week.
Looking at the SPY 3 Month chart with daily closes shows what is going on.
after Monday's nice move up to a resistance level of $415, the SPY has been hanging out in a range (R) from $415 to $407 making a bull flag pattern which technically it still is. On Thursday however it closed above the $417 spot and on Friday it was all set to pop on out and run. Then the trick, trap, fool, and fuk you sideways crew came in on Friday and we go a "Inside Trading" (IT) where the SPY started down but didn't get below the low from Thursday. This makes Thursday's move a "False Breakout" FB, and along with the "Inside Trading" IT day, which is a bearish sign, I expect the price to come down and fill the "gap" that was made by Monday's opening. Of course I sold all the Calls I got on Friday expecting the market to shake off the gap down open when the price started closing 10, 15 and then 30 minute candle sticks below $411 (marked by dotted line). As for the next attempt, I'll wait to see what happens as we approach the GAP fill at $405, but I gotta admit I like the $401 - $400 spot better for support. Take a look at those stochastics in the lower right hand corner and you can see the rollover starting to happen here so as I step in it will be light as there is a good shot the market heads for the lows.Comment -
I bought a little bit Friday afternoon before the close. I'm looking to see if the price can hold the $72.50ish level before starting to add more. I'd like to see a confirmation of that level before it runs back to $106 to meet the 20 DMA for a long term perspective. In the short term, I don't know if it runs right up to the 20DMA I can stop myself from taking profits of 25% right away knowing that there is a high likelihood of being rejected and revisiting the lows for a double bottoming scenario. Just a awareness I would like to put out there. In the long run over a few years I like the prospects, but in the short run of maybe a few weeks, I can see this jumping up.Comment -
The rest of the markets are kind of in a holding pattern making a bull flag while gaining energy to make a move. I am still holding out for the gap to be filled down at the 405 spot on the SPY before stepping in with some calls. The train may leave the station without me however and that's fine.Comment -
Asian Markets- knew it was only a matter of time. Scooped up a lot when they were at there lows with my 2 biggest holdings Alibaba and Pinduoduo.
Waiting to see how high can goComment -
I'm thinking of buying some INTC, mostly on domestication of chips. Thoughts?Comment -
I've been sitting around all week now doing nothing and tomorrow we have a catalyst in the CPI numbers coming out. At this point the markets are all coiled up and when it makes a move it will be a fairly sizable 1. I'm still a buyer at around $400ish give or take a buck on the SPY but with the awareness that it could go and head for the lows in a quick manner. Going the other way has it popping up to the $426.50ish spot before I get some Puts. Again with the knowledge that on an irrational move over the next month or so a bull run up to $446 is not out of the question.Comment -
I'm a fan of SE and slightly invested, but I'm still holding onto cash to see what happens here in the near future, with the inflation numbers coming in hotter than expected this morning, I sort of expect a downturn, I'm a buyer at the $78ish level or just a spike through the 20DMA. Just small amounts here with the eye on accumulating over the next few years as we go. Lunch money type stuff at like 5 shares per purchase.
They are killing the tape today, and the SPY opened below my 1st target buying spot. The next one is $392.25 for me but if they start closing 10,15,30 and then hourly candles below $390.50, I'm out an waiting until we get around the lows at $385 and then the goal line defensive spot of $380.Comment -
Inflation? Huh?
You mean to tell me that "Backdoor Bob the Electrician" received 100k from the Guvehment to build a new garage, new shed almost as big as his garage, a sprinkler system, a new front lawn to go with sprinkler system, new paved driveway, gutted his whole house practically........wait? But not 1 customer goes to his house to conduct business? (COVID-19-4EVER Business Relief Recovery Plan)
Yeah, dam, now I wonder why all those prices went up so we can barely eat? It wouldn't be Backdoor Bob's free money coming home to roost or anything right?Comment -
So Friday the SPY came right down to $392.50 and right on cue I bought some calls. Then nothing happen the rest of the day. The effect is now a bear flag being created and the likelihood of lower prices on all the index funds I track. Luckily the SPY did raise to where I stepped in on Friday to allow me to get out and buy some Puts before the close. I think $385 is the next stop here in the very near future and we may even challenge the $380 spot. Afterwards however, I see the price of oil subsiding and that will spark a rally in the coming weeks. The dollar actually gained on Friday's inflation and consumer sentiment numbers. I think the dollar turns around and this will also help a relief rally in the market.
This all happens after a slide down. I don't think this is the bottom for the year just a possible new low then a rally going into the second half of June which will continue into July.Comment -
any bulls left here?Comment -
i don't see that correlation happening... oil coming down will pressure the energy stocks, which are pretty much the only bright spot... and oil will only be coming down because the economy is collapsing
so p/e ratios should keep coming down, and the "e" portion of that will have to come down dramatically... no idea why the s&p should trade above a p/e of 10 or so, which is where it traded in the late 1970s, with interest rates rising and the future looking more bleak, so to me the overall market could be cut in half
crypto getting crushed which is not a good sign for the market tomorrow/this weekComment
