KVB Total Return Fund

[KVB]

I was whisked around that room, meeting so many on the way to the bar, lol. You were one of the first I met, we need to spend more time. Erica was happy to meet you.

We'll do it again, maybe less crowded, we'll meet up.

I sure hope BigDay gets well, that one hurts. I hope you enjoyed that suite at the Nugget, looked nice.

[KVB]

Here are the settled option trades for this account. I got burned on those LNG calls, basically putting me even, up $6.44...lol.

Symbol	Name	Closed Date	Quantity	Proceeds	CostBasis	Total Gain/Loss ($)	Total Gain/Loss (%)
LNG 08/24/2018 66.00 C	CALL CHENIERE ENERGY INC $66 EXP 08/24/18	8/24/2018	1	$0.00	$104.65	($104.65)	-100.00%
GME 10/19/2018 15.00 C	CALL GAMESTOP CORP $15 EXP 10/19/18	8/20/2018	2	$239.72	$234.28	$5.44	2.27%
LNG 08/17/2018 65.00 C	CALL CHENIERE ENERGY INC $65 EXP 08/17/18	8/17/2018	1	$0.00	$113.65	($113.65)	-100.00%
LNG 08/10/2018 64.00 C	CALL CHENIERE ENERGY INC $64 EXP 08/10/18	8/10/2018	1	$0.00	$126.60	($126.60)	-100.00%
C 07/20/2018 67.00 C	CALL CITIGROUP INC $67 EXP 07/20/18	7/2/2018	1	$140.40	$211.60	($71.20)	-50.71%
C 07/20/2018 67.50 C	CALL CITIGROUP INC $67.5 EXP 07/20/18	6/28/2018	1	$165.40	$123.60	$41.80	25.27%
C 07/20/2018 69.00 C	CALL CITIGROUP INC $69 EXP 07/20/18	7/20/2018	1	$103.35	$0.00	$103.35	100.00%
GME 07/20/2018 15.50 C	CALL GAMESTOP CORP $15.5 EXP 07/20/18	7/20/2018	2	$143.72	$0.00	$143.72	100.00%
HIMX 07/27/2018 8.00 C	CALL HIMAX TECHNOLOGIES $8 EXP 07/27/18	7/24/2018	10	$158.39	$30.16	$128.23	80.96%
Total				$950.98	$944.54	$6.44	0.68%

[jjgold]

First we have to get bigday healthy

KVB Do you ever travel to say the Midwest?

[KVB]

Here are the current positions in this account...

Symbol	Description	Quantity	Price	Market Value	Cost Basis	Gain/Loss $	Gain/Loss %
CQH	CHENIERE ENERGY LP	200	$31.77	$6,354.00	$5,832.25	$521.75	8.95%
LNG	CHENIERE ENERGY INC	100	$67.07	$6,707.00	$6,299.14	$407.86	6.47%
CQP	CHENIERE ENERGY PARTN LP	200	$37.71	$7,542.00	$7,519.41	$22.59	0.30%
F	FORD MOTOR CO	500	$9.97	$4,985.00	$4,793.10	$191.90	4%
GME	GAMESTOP CORP CLASS A	200	$14.12	$2,824.00	$2,537.95	$286.05	11.27%
GE	GENERAL ELECTRIC CO	200	$12.97	$2,594.00	$2,940.07	($346.07)	-11.77%
HIMX	HIMAX TECHNOLOGIES INC F SPONSORED ADR 1 ADR REPS 2 ORD SHS	1,000	$6.53	$6,530.00	$8,052.40	($1,522.40)	-18.91%
STWD	STARWOOD PPTY TRUST REIT	300	$22.03	$6,609.00	$6,498.75	$110.25	1.70%
USRT	ISHARES CORE US REIT ETF	100	$51.05	$5,105.00	$4,667.95	$437.05	9.36%
MORT	VANECK VECTORS MTG REIT INCOME ETF	400	$24.33	$9,732.00	$9,352.95	$379.05	4.05%
GME 10/19/2018 16.00 C	CALL GAMESTOP CORP $16 EXP 10/19/18	-2	$0.43	($86.00)	($138.67)	$52.67	37.98%
Account Total				$58,896.00	$58,355.30	$540.70	0.93%

[KVB]

First we have to get bigday healthy

KVB Do you ever travel to say the Midwest?

Actually, may be planning one to the Illinois area, including Chicago.

More business.

[jjgold]

I can get to the Illinois area very easy

[unde0087]

How about coming to MT? Get your ass up here. Makes most states look like a pile of shit.

[KVB]

Going to have to do a poster run again here. Gold I will let you know, things are developing over the next couple of months and into next year. I will be heading that way for sure.

You aren't that far Unde, we need to figure something out.

[KVB]

KVB NCAAF Totals Fund

I have switched sport funds again here and have moved $10,000 into the KVB NCAAF Totals Fund. This Fund will track NCAA Football Total plays generated using a blend of two methods. First, the games will be handicapped with a stacking percentages forecast and that will overlay a market analysis that includes regressions and can often take a contrarian form. There will be triggers to plays, but they won’t always be bought at the open. There will often be time for the market to mature, providing more information to develop a play, which can result in better or worse numbers.

Basically, every NCAAF Total play I produce with this method will be posted here as generated and tracked along several elements, from the closing line to average line error. This Fund will also be aggressive and risk 2.5%, or $250 per bet. This bet size will readjust to 2.5% of the current bankroll should that bankroll drop 25% or goes up 50%.

This may not happen though. This is a trading Fund after all and here some numbers and expectations for this fund.

Our expectation is to generate at least 100 plays this year and hit 56% to 57% of them.

56% Expectation at -110					56% Expectation at -105
Lose	250	44	11000		Lose	250	44	11000
Win	227.5	56	12740		Win	237.5	56	13300
Total			1740		Total			2300
56.5% Expectation at -110					56.5% Expectation at -105
Lose	250	43.5	10875		Lose	250	43.5	10875
Win	227.5	56.5	12853.8		Win	237.5	56.5	13418.8
Total			1978.75		Total			2543.75
57% Expectation at -110					57% Expectation at -105
Lose	250	43	10750		Lose	250	43	10750
Win	227.5	57	12967.5		Win	237.5	57	13537.5
Total			2217.5		Total			2787.5

Odds will be important here as we would look to be in the 56% expectation at -105 odds. If the fund runs up 10 units or so, reaching that season expectation, I just might rotate out and think about dipping in again as the market adjusts.

I expect some volatility with this Fund and may trade it that way.

Here are the first two plays in this Fund as posted over the last two days…

I am officially starting the KVB NCAAF Totals Fund and will buy into it in the Total Return Fund but I am submitting the play now with NM ST/MINN UNDER 47 (-110)..

I've added a second play to the NCAAF Totals Fund with UCF/CONN UNDER 73 (-113)…

Good Luck.

[KVB]

One last post to catch up here.

Here are the sports fund positions. The first one never had a play while I focused on stocks, lol, and now I've gone from less stocks and more sports with the other funds. It is hard to do both.

Name	Open	Closed	Quantity	Proceeds/Value	CostBasis	Total Gain/Loss ($)	Total Gain/Loss (%)
Blended Value	5/29/2018	7/17/2018	1	$5,000.00	$5,000.00	$0.00	0.00%
CFL Sharp Forecast	7/17/2018	8/20/2018	1	$8,375.00	$10,000.00	-$1,625.00	-16.25%
NCAAF Totals	8/29/2018		1	$10,000.00	$10,000.00	$0.00	0.00%
Totals						-$1,625.00

It's a shame I haven't bought into the MLB Contrarian Fund, it has done well.

[unde0087]

Going to have to do a poster run again here. Gold I will let you know, things are developing over the next couple of months and into next year. I will be heading that way for sure.

You aren't that far Unde, we need to figure something out.

If you come here, I guarantee it will be the best trip you ever went on in the US. This state has everything you ever want to see, in every aspect, but has nothing in traffic, nothing in crime, but everything in anything you would do outdoors. It is a no brainer.

[Louisvillekid1]

Nice work

[unde0087]

You don't see all the shooting and the stupidity, the reason is opposite of the liberals thinking. The reason you don't see all the mass shooting and stupid shit is even criminals know it isn't the cops they have to worry about. It is the citizen that would put a bullet in their ass if they start shit. We have gun here and, "contrary", no pun intended, if someone acts stupid with a gun they will get shot. Not by police but a citizen watching over others. You would have to be high on meth to think you could do what others are in big cities. Reason that doesn't fly here is people know everyone else and that bullshit doesn't fly here. Big cities no one cares about anyone but themselves, here you can't get drunk and stupid one night without the half the town knowing by 10 am the next day.

[jjgold]

This is a tremendous fund

I need the NASDAQ stocks to start going down a little

NVDA hurting me

Also have some short call spreads future options /ES

[KVB]

This is a tremendous fund

I need the NASDAQ stocks to start going down a little

NVDA hurting me

Also have some short call spreads future options /ES

Those current positions are pretty conservative and pay dividends. Kind of just holding cash there...lol. Except for the natural gas, betting on that shit and the CEO.

Wish I had Amazon back, even though it wasn't much. Seems like you could put everything on Amazon and Apple, just ride out the future.

But I want to trade in here more. Would like the market to pull back too.

[jjgold]

Apple and Amazon just can’t keep going up it’s impossible

[KVB]

Apple and Amazon just can’t keep going up it’s impossible

Amazon can, they can rule the world.

Regulators will have to stop them. They can enter a market, subsidize low prices to gain market share, and then rule the domain.

They are moving into pharmaceuticals too.

They can beat the competition wherever they go. They are in the cloud and ad server business, competing with google. They do it all.

Apple has services that aren't going anywhere, just like Microsoft.

All still the companies of the future.

[jjgold]

I made short Apple

Should take a little downturn like all stocks do

[KVB]

I made short Apple

Should take a little downturn like all stocks do

Exactly, but maybe pick up calls after the drop, I think money is still flowing into the markets, even if there is a pull back.

Tesla a good short but now you're playing against billionaires.

[KVB]

The KVB NCAAF Totals Fund has picked up WAKE/TULANE UNDER 57.5 (-110).

This line is and will move down. You can still get 57.5 at Caesar's.

Good Luck.

[metsfan3331]

Let’s go

[Auto Donk]

Let’s go

like an al-queda sleeper cell, metsfan3331 lay dormant for two and a half years, then all of the sudden: BAM!!!!!!!!!!!! NON-STOP IDIOTIC NOTHING POSTING......

[jjgold]

Trump going to cripple China

[KVB]

like an al-queda sleeper cell, metsfan3331 lay dormant for two and a half years, then all of the sudden: BAM!!!!!!!!!!!! NON-STOP IDIOTIC NOTHING POSTING......

I think he was trying to get to 40 posts for PM access.

[KVB]

Trump going to cripple China

We are winning.

[firedawg]

Donk asked for link to donate



Did NOT donate

Wow

[thechaoz]

Well you mentioned that your “fund” seeks aggressive returns, but income investments such as bonds, REITs, and preferred stocks will only appreciate in value during periods of declining interest rates. Otherwise, you would purchase them because you seek income. And you would do so with the understanding that your principal would likely depreciate in this environment. Really, the yield curve is pretty flat, so if you want income, I would just purchase individual bonds with ~2 years to maturity because right now you won’t get much reward to tie it up for longer. If you do use income funds in this environment, I would look for funds that aren’t benchmarked to the Barclays agg and have the flexibility to invest in multiple sectors and anywhere in the yield curve, and can use leverage.

I understood about 1/3 of that. This your profession grease?

[KVB]

Here's the current KVB NCAAF Totals Fund with a crude, non price defined, measurement against the closing line...

			Risk 2.5%	Closing	Beat	BTC
Record	Date	NCAAF Totals Fund	$10,000	Line	Closer?	Average
0-1	30-Aug	NM ST/MINN UNDER 47 (-110)	-250	49.5	N	-2.5
		UCF/CONN UNDER 73 (-113)	0	69	Y	4
1-1		WAKE/TULANE UNDER 57.5 (-110)	227.27	56	Y	1.5
1-1		Total	$9,977.27		2-1-0	1

[OVAKUL]

The KVB NCAAF Totals Fund has picked up WAKE/TULANE UNDER 57.5 (-110).

This line is and will move down. You can still get 57.5 at Caesar's.

Good Luck.

doesn't get easy than this

[KVB]

The KVB NCAAF Total Fund has picked up W. Kent/Wisc UNDER 52 (-108).

This play was bought last night in the KVB NCAAF UNDERS Basket as well....

For the NCAAF UNDERS Basket I picked up W Kent/Wisc UNDER 52.5 (-105).


Making trades late here.

Good Luck.

[KVB]

Here's the NCAAF Totals Fund after tonight...

			Risk 2.5%	Closing	Beat	BTC
Record	Date	NCAAF Totals Fund	$10,000	Line	Closer?	Average
0-1	30-Aug	NM ST/MINN UNDER 47 (-110)	-250	49.5	N	-2.5
0-1-1		UCF/CONN UNDER 73 (-113)	0	69	Y	4
1-1-1		WAKE/TULANE UNDER 57.5 (-110)	227.27	56	Y	1.5
2-1-1	31-Aug	W KENT/WISC UNDER 52 (-108)	231.48	52	PUSH	0
2-1-1		Total	$10,208.75		2-1-1	0.75

The MLB Contrarian Fund hit an all time high of over 12 units, never did rotate into that for this thread.

Along with these two Funds, there are currently 4 other Funds I may opt to rotate into as the season progresses.

KVB NCAAF ATS/ML Fund

KVB NCAAF OVER Basket

KVB NCAAF UNDER Basket

KVB NCAAF UPSET Basket

Links are to the original posts for these strategies and those Total Baskets should generate lot of plays this year and produce a decent field from which to pick Total plays.

[unde0087]

We are winning

[KVB]

The NCAAF Totals Fund has picked up.

KENT/ILLINOIS UNDER 56.5 (-105)

Good Luck

[KVB]

NCAFF Totals Fund has added...

WASH/AUB OVER 49.5 (-105).

I got this at 48 but didn't post it in time.

Good Luck

[KVB]

NCAAF Totals Fund added..

WASH ST/WYOMING UNDER 45.5 (-102).

Good Luck.