KVB Have a bases question

[USCPHILLYGUY]

I have an app that follows trends / Line movement & % of money bet. I’m confused on the Detroit / Minny game? 96% of total bets on Detroit yet very little line adjustment. Right now Minny -170 Detroit +145

[KVB]

Here's what I see.

I see heavy money and tickets on Minny with the Total very split.

I think -175 is not a good price but the market is moving as I type.

[KVB]

I wanted to post that before typing anymore as the market is showing that pressure on Minny, moving from the low and mid 160's to -170.

Bet 365 is juicing already in anticiaption. The got hit early with Detroit, but it quickly flipped.

Also, I have mixed signals on what I consider sharp moves for both the ML and Total.

[KVB]

Those bets you see on Detroit could be an early report that has not been updated. The market is updating now and I even see 365 dropping to -170, getting in line with the market.

[firedawg]

Philly
Do you honestly believe all that?


Lol
There is not enough volume on most of these games for a true read

Just saying pal

[USCPHILLYGUY]

Dawg. Trust the process

[firedawg]

Dawg. Trust the process

Philly
I don’t believe that nonsense
Just saying
Lol

[USCPHILLYGUY]

Dawg I am a big believer in public play and Line movements. That’s all I can say at this time.

[KVB]

Be patient Philly.

I have evidence, including your original post, that volume is coming in on the game but books aren't always releasing info.

Sometimes information gets sticky and this game looks like one of those times.

Volume shows as too light from what I can see and when I talk to anyone, there is a holdout of information.

We see this sometimes and we see it in smaller markets like the CFL too.

Be patient here if you are trying to read the market.

If you have capping that gives you then number you want, then go for it.

I am being patient and even though numbers seem heavy on Minny, we need another batch of volume reported for anything to be clear.

[lakerboy]

Bottomline is that Detroit hangs but loses in the end.

[jjgold]

Lol guys those numbers not accurate

Omg 😮

[KVB]

Starting to see the public tend toward the Over here, with some money going the other way.

If that discrepancy builds, I could end up on the Under side of the Total.

[KVB]

Lol guys those numbers not accurate

Omg 

Oh Gold, it's not the information, it's how you use it.

It is all relative and I doubt anyone is getting the information I am. I make calls daily Gold.

We are on the back end, we are grinding, and we are winning.

You always say "you don't know who I am, I have forgotten more than anyone knows."

Well Gold, I say to you, you don't know who I am.

Will be in Vegas, on business, next weekend. Forget the "bash" I am leaving Saturday afternoon.

See you there.

[KVB]

Minny too good for Detroit, back end numbers or not, even the Contrarian Fund caps the games.

It's a tough Detroit play, hard to like, for now.

[danshan11]

I have Minnesota -149 and I have 8.85 for the total so it is way off what i have. I bet the under but the line is moving away from me as we speak. I bet twins at U9 at +117. I believe that line will come back down

[firedawg]

Philly
I’ve got some prime mountain properties in Savannah id like to sell ya

[KVB]

I have Minnesota -149 and I have 8.85 for the total so it is way off what i have. I bet the under but the line is moving away from me as we speak. I bet twins at U9 at +117. I believe that line will come back down

Books expected a little money on Minny.

You were close to the open but that pressure on Minny is strong.

That discrepancy between the public on the Over and the money on the Under is getting bigger.

Good price on the Under, the books playing a little with this Total.

Still so much time and the equity markets are just getting to a close.

I'm sure, as money comes in to all these games, I will start triggering plays for the Contrarian Fund.

[RangeFinder]

Reading the line movements and what the number of bets and amount of money are going is only part of the equation

It's good you pay attention to it but you should use it to confirm a play you were considering which really comes down to creating your own numbers

There are a lot of pieces to the puzzle but if you're going to use board reading you'll need to have a line service that updates often

There is an app called Action Network out there now which is a knock off of sportsinsights but the problem with them is the information is stale by the time it reaches you which makes it useless. They need to update more often and much quicker

Just saying that board reading can give you a lot of false hope unless it's up to the second updates

[firedawg]

Reading the line movements and what the number of bets and amount of money are going is only part of the equation

It's good you pay attention to it but you should use it to confirm a play you were considering which really comes down to creating your own numbers

There are a lot of pieces to the puzzle but if you're going to use board reading you'll need to have a line service that updates often

There is an app called Action Network out there now which is a knock off of sportsinsights but the problem with them is the information is stale by the time it reaches you which makes it useless. They need to update more often and much quicker

Just saying that board reading can give you a lot of false hope unless it's up to the second updates

Sharp

[danshan11]

made 5 cents on the twins under and it came down closer to where i was -175ish was too high for this game, even though they will probably destroy the poor tigers but the tigers always have a punchers chance with their bats.

[KVB]

Exactly Range, even the Contrarian Fund caps the games, every one of them.

[bonzaii]

Id like to see someone on here who "caps" the games tell us what they actually do to cap the games.

[USCPHILLYGUY]

Finishing the night with Arizona-140

[RangeFinder]

Id like to see someone on here who "caps" the games tell us what they actually do to cap the games.

I use saber numbers. I don't specifically rely on them though like some. Example of some I use are:

WPA (Win probability added)

REW (Base-Out wins saved)

FIP (Field Independent pitching)

BABIP (Batting average on batted balls in play)

LD% (Line drives in play excluding homers)

That's a start

Just compare those stats with the two teams you are looking at and you will get a good idea on the number the favorite should be and what the dog should be

This is only a start though. You can add more if you feel it will be relevant to the game which I usually will.

[danshan11]

I use a comparative value approach, I try to determine market value of a team based on previous pricing

[firedawg]

Exactly Range, even the Contrarian Fund caps the games, every one of them.

Clown
STOP

[ikid2groove415]

Gambling was that easy crunching numbers and stats- enough with the BS

[KVB]

Id like to see someone on here who "caps" the games tell us what they actually do to cap the games.

Was going to go into detail here but it looks like Rudy's bitch ruined another thread.

SBR isn't ready for real handicapping.

Not even close.

We're still here, and that's weak...

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/saloon/3487500-shute-thanks-your-friendly-support-concern.html#post27973044

[firedawg]

KVB
Stop
It’s a clown show
You look really bad


Lol

[bonzaii]

I use saber numbers. I don't specifically rely on them though like some. Example of some I use are:

WPA (Win probability added)

REW (Base-Out wins saved)

FIP (Field Independent pitching)

BABIP (Batting average on batted balls in play)

LD% (Line drives in play excluding homers)

That's a start

Just compare those stats with the two teams you are looking at and you will get a good idea on the number the favorite should be and what the dog should be

This is only a start though. You can add more if you feel it will be relevant to the game which I usually will.

Thank you

[bonzaii]

Was going to go into detail here but it looks like Rudy's bitch ruined another thread.

SBR isn't ready for real handicapping.

Not even close.

[firedawg]

Lol
Poor KVB
Losing the CON TRAIN
College foots coming


JJ
Can’t help u lol

[KVB]

Rudy's bitch you don't make any sense in your posts, don't act like you have some problem with me just so you can troll.

I'm done reading your posts, I gave you a chance, again, but you act like a child, again.

You do it in multiple threads.

Don't go on tilt, again, and get banned, alright kid? lol

Easily the worst poster to bring out of banning, nothing real comes from him.

But the reason I checked back in was to ask you Philly, did you play this game?

Minny opened it up for sure, scoring more than the Jets.

[pimike]

Rudy's bitch you don't make any sense in your posts, don't act like you have some problem with me just so you can troll.

I'm done reading your posts, I gave you a chance, again, but you act like a child, again.

You do it in multiple threads.

Don't go on tilt, again, and get banned, alright kid? lol

Easily the worst poster to bring out of banning, nothing real comes from him.

But the reason I checked back in was to ask you Philly, did you play this game?

Minny opened it up for sure, scoring more than the Jets.

[bonzaii]

Your seriously not going to post any info because of one poster