Paging KVB (VT-Florida St.)

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  • RangeFinder
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 10-27-16
    • 8041

    #1
    Paging KVB (VT-Florida St.)
    Need to find a reason for the move in tonights game between VT and Florida St.

    I'm close to firing on +7 but would love to get +7.5 at -110. All my numbers say this is a 4 point game. I just feel like I'm missing why it moved other than liabilities on FS

    Thanks for the help

    P.s I just saw that the header says MSU-GEO. That was from a post last year. Somehow it copied it and I didn't realize it when I hit send.
  • RangeFinder
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 10-27-16
    • 8041

    #2
    Oh and why can't we edit headers?
    Comment
    • jjgold
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 07-20-05
      • 388189

      #3
      Range you’re drunk?
      Comment
      • SEAHAWKHARRY
        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
        • 11-29-07
        • 26068

        #4
        Florida state is getting both the money and the plays but this va tech tech is legit and will surprise many this year returning defense is on point and both teams can score ..I got +7.5 early in the week I believe this will be a close game as well
        Comment
        • daneblazer
          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
          • 09-14-08
          • 27861

          #5
          Bet Georgia
          Comment
          • RangeFinder
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 10-27-16
            • 8041

            #6
            Originally posted by jjgold
            Range you’re drunk?
            No. Honest mistake

            How come we can't edit the headers?
            Comment
            • SBR Genie
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 11-20-14
              • 5459

              #7
              Originally posted by RangeFinder
              No. Honest mistake

              How come we can't edit the headers?
              Only moderators/admin can edit the title, RF. Should be corrected now.
              Comment
              • RangeFinder
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 10-27-16
                • 8041

                #8
                Originally posted by SBR Genie
                Only moderators/admin can edit the title, RF. Should be corrected now.
                Thanks Genie! My baby my darling
                Comment
                • jjgold
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 07-20-05
                  • 388189

                  #9
                  Ranger your off lately

                  Buried in horses

                  Bases not bad
                  Comment
                  • RangeFinder
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 10-27-16
                    • 8041

                    #10
                    Originally posted by jjgold
                    Ranger your off lately

                    Buried in horses

                    Bases not bad
                    Did good at Del Mar 1st 2 days but yesterday was a little rough

                    It's been an okay week but not great
                    Comment
                    • SBR Genie
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 11-20-14
                      • 5459

                      #11
                      Originally posted by RangeFinder
                      Thanks Genie! My baby my darling
                      You're welcome, RF.
                      Comment
                      • irishstuey
                        SBR Wise Guy
                        • 08-22-08
                        • 604

                        #12
                        Originally posted by SEAHAWKHARRY
                        Florida state is getting both the money and the plays but this va tech tech is legit and will surprise many this year returning defense is on point and both teams can score ..I got +7.5 early in the week I believe this will be a close game as well
                        VT lost a lot on defense, including both Edmunds. FSU lost some production also. I would feel a lot better at 7.5 though.
                        Comment
                        • KVB
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 05-29-14
                          • 74817

                          #13
                          Originally posted by RangeFinder
                          Need to find a reason for the move in tonights game between VT and Florida St.

                          I'm close to firing on +7 but would love to get +7.5 at -110. All my numbers say this is a 4 point game. I just feel like I'm missing why it moved other than liabilities on FS...
                          This is what I see.

                          My stacking forecast, which can be weak early on has Florida State winning about 28-24.

                          From my end it looks like the tickets and money are on Florida St. spread. The tickets are a little more even but the money is a little more lopsided from my examples.

                          The ML shows even betting tickets but more money on Florida St as well.

                          The line moved up on all the Florida State pressure.

                          I have Florida State -7 because I think the weakness in the Forecast pairs with what I consider sharper groups taking V Tech.

                          In fact, we are seeing this line pressure a little downward even though tickets are coming in on Florida St.

                          It's basically a RLM but hasn't really shown yet as it's just small price movements at places like Pinny and Matchbook.

                          This would be worry to me except that I anticipated this RLM, which hasn't quite become RLM yet, and think that money falls.

                          My numbers, with the analysis added, qualified for a bet on -7, and still do, even with the line drop.

                          Life isn't always contrarian, I was against the public with LSU last night, and now I'm with them on Florida St.

                          If you want the dog, maybe a 5 Dimes option of 7.5 but it will get more expensive. I doubt you find +7.5 (-110) unless the books really reverse course. Which could happen.

                          Comment
                          • RangeFinder
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 10-27-16
                            • 8041

                            #14
                            Originally posted by KVB
                            This is what I see.

                            My stacking forecast, which can be weak early on has Florida State winning about 28-24.

                            From my end it looks like the tickets and money are on Florida St. spread. The tickets are a little more even but the money is a little more lopsided from my examples.

                            The ML shows even betting tickets but more money on Florida St as well.

                            The line moved up on all the Florida State pressure.

                            I have Florida State -7 because I think the weakness in the Forecast pairs with what I consider sharper groups taking V Tech.

                            In fact, we are seeing this line pressure a little downward even though tickets are coming in on Florida St.

                            It's basically a RLM but hasn't really shown yet as it's just small price movements at places like Pinny and Matchbook.

                            This would be worry to me except that I anticipated this RLM, which hasn't quite become RLM yet, and think that money falls.

                            My numbers, with the analysis added, qualified for a bet on -7, and still do, even with the line drop.

                            Life isn't always contrarian, I was against the public with LSU last night, and now I'm with them on Florida St.

                            If you want the dog, maybe a 5 Dimes option of 7.5 but it will get more expensive. I doubt you find +7.5 (-110) unless the books really reverse course. Which could happen.

                            Thanks K! I'll wait for my number at 7 1/2 at -110 and if not I'll stay off the game
                            Seems like value players against groups here
                            Comment
                            • KVB
                              SBR Aristocracy
                              • 05-29-14
                              • 74817

                              #15
                              Yeah, in my opinion, based on how I see money flowing through the weekend, especially in NCAAF, I think money has been "steered" off of Florida St.

                              I think last night was a much bigger game, especially volume wise, but we still have a couple of hours left.
                              Comment
                              • Grits n' Gravy
                                Restricted User
                                • 06-10-10
                                • 13024

                                #16
                                So op has it a 4 point game but won’t take 7?

                                Only at sbr.
                                Comment
                                • KVB
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 05-29-14
                                  • 74817

                                  #17
                                  Bookmaker, Will Hill, BetDSi all getting close, Range.

                                  They are dealing 7.5's.

                                  Comment
                                  • KVB
                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                    • 05-29-14
                                    • 74817

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by RangeFinder
                                    Thanks K! I'll wait for my number at 7 1/2 at -110 and if not I'll stay off the game
                                    Seems like value players against groups here
                                    Bookmaker dealing the 7.5 (-110) now.

                                    I still like FSU.

                                    Comment
                                    • RangeFinder
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 10-27-16
                                      • 8041

                                      #19
                                      Took the 7.5 at -108 at 5Dimers

                                      Patience sometimes works

                                      Thanks for the help K
                                      Comment
                                      • 2Shirts
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 03-11-11
                                        • 4402

                                        #20
                                        There's no way VT stays within a TD. FSU by 10 plus easy.
                                        Comment
                                        • RangeFinder
                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                          • 10-27-16
                                          • 8041

                                          #21
                                          Thanks for the info guys

                                          I owe you dinner K
                                          Comment
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