Biggest CFB Lock of the weekend

[daneblazer]

Might as well help some guys out here. I’ve lost around 11 or 12 2x BTP picks in a row going back to last season


I’ve seen Missouri play
Ive seen South Carolina play
Missouri is better than South Carolina

Taking Missouri +1 as my best bet

you know what to do

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Texas as a touchdown+ home dog looks intriguing

[Shutup]

Texas as a touchdown+ home dog looks intriguing

Not saying you are wrong abou the cover. Not really a home game

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Not saying you are wrong abou the cover. Not really a home game

thank you, I did not see that.

[daneblazer]

I like Texas too

[Shutup]

Va Tech +
I bough it to 7 unfortunately as it seems it would get there naturally. I know people don't like buying points but if you have to pay a little to get 7 it is worth it. It may get there anyway If not they still cover IMO. My best play

[hotcross]

Might as well help some guys out here. I’ve lost around 11 or 12 2x BTP picks in a row going back to last season

appreciate it, dane

I also lose my 2x pick almost every time

Maybe I'll post my pick this week here also

[Ratpack]

georgia southern and northwestern

[katstale]

I like Texas too

Thanks! I know what to do

[A Quant]

Texas as a touchdown+ home dog looks intriguing

Yes, it is in the state of Texas.

But it's in Dallas-- It's basically a neutral site game.

[jtoler]

Missouri for years now is one of those teams that will fool you they look sexy because they sling the ball all over field but the key to these type teams is how physical are they. Usually that's where they lose. Mizzou outgained them last year by 64 total yards at home and still lost 31-13 mainly due to 3 turnovers. Sc coming off a loss and.mizzou coming off a physical uga loss at home and now on the road with bama after this one. Not a clear cut situation for a W imo.

[2daBank]

Va Tech +
I bough it to 7 unfortunately as it seems it would get there naturally. I know people don't like buying points but if you have to pay a little to get 7 it is worth it. It may get there anyway If not they still cover IMO. My best play

Definitely don’t like buying points, especially early in the week, let it stabilize and see before paying the extra juice. If it goes up so be it, ultimately if you don’t feel good enough about covering it makes no sense it would be your favorite play imo (not commenting about this particular game just the strategy overall). So many games in a given week I think better to move on to a game I don’t feel the need to pay for manipulating the line.

[navyblue81]

UCF will murder SMU. I’ll gladly give the 24. Also think there’s potential that ND could beat up VT, but coming off a big win and going on the road, I’ll prolly hold off.

[Shutup]

Definitely don’t like buying points, especially early in the week, let it stabilize and see before paying the extra juice. If it goes up so be it, ultimately if you don’t feel good enough about covering it makes no sense it would be your favorite play imo (not commenting about this particular game just the strategy overall). So many games in a given week I think better to move on to a game I don’t feel the need to pay for manipulating the line.

Honestly, it is really a mental thing for me at certain numbers and situations. It allows me to bet them big(bigger than normal atleast)because of the confidence at a specific number and situation. You are right about letting the number find its place.

[2daBank]

Honestly, it is really a mental thing for me at certain numbers and situations. It allows me to bet them big(bigger than normal atleast)because of the confidence at a specific number and situation. You are right about letting the number find its place.

Especially with ncaa, lines tend to move quite a bit, often times back and forth. They will get pounded one way at beginning of week then money will start coming in on the other side once it gets to particular number and bring it back down. If I don’t get number I want on open then I’ll just wait, check back in on it few times during week to see if maybe a tout release moved it where I wanted, if not I’ll wait till Saturday and see if all the lames chime in w enough to move it.

[Ralphie Halves]

Agreed on Mizzou. Frustrating team to back, but I'm on them this week too.

Best bet is Syracuse though.

[BigdaddyQH]

Definitely don’t like buying points, especially early in the week, let it stabilize and see before paying the extra juice. If it goes up so be it, ultimately if you don’t feel good enough about covering it makes no sense it would be your favorite play imo (not commenting about this particular game just the strategy overall). So many games in a given week I think better to move on to a game I don’t feel the need to pay for manipulating the line.

Very good write up. The problem with people inhere is that they are willing to totally forget how much extra money they lose in higher vig just to say that they covered a game. Normally this means one of two things. The players either wagers a small mount of money, or like many in here, the player is an air bettor. There are very few serious gamblers in here. There are way too many people who wager "Not to Lose" and way too few who wager to win.

[2daBank]

Very good write up. The problem with people inhere is that they are willing to totally forget how much extra money they lose in higher vig just to say that they covered a game. Normally this means one of two things. The players either wagers a small mount of money, or like many in here, the player is an air bettor. There are very few serious gamblers in here. There are way too many people who wager "Not to Lose" and way too few who wager to win.

This might apply more for bases as that the only sport I truely expect to profit every year but to me the juice is everything, I’m not more than a 50-55% capper over the last decade but I don’t play favs and actually sell runs on totals to always get even money or plus.

I’ll be 1st to admit football is purely entertainment for me, some years I do well, others not so much but same things still apply, I know I can’t hit at the clip it takes to be playing anything more than -110 to profit. In my experience there simply no way the juice on buying points is worth it, as in no chance it changes outcomes of enough plays to justify the price difference.

[Shutup]

Very good write up. The problem with people inhere is that they are willing to totally forget how much extra money they lose in higher vig just to say that they covered a game. Normally this means one of two things. The players either wagers a small mount of money, or like many in here, the player is an air bettor. There are very few serious gamblers in here. There are way too many people who wager "Not to Lose" and way too few who wager to win.

Only applies if you aren't counting units and just the record. Can't speak for anyone else, but I don't do it.Also, only buy point occasionally. This idea that buying point is bad, is just dumb as long as you aren't doing it that often it is not going to catch up to you.

[2daBank]

Only applies if you aren't counting units and just the record. Can't speak for anyone else, but I don't do it.Also, only buy point occasionally. This idea that buying point is bad, is just dumb as long as you aren't doing it that often it is not going to catch up to you.

It is bad, they wouldn’t allow you to buy points if it was advantageous for you imo.. don’t really matter how often you do it (obviously less often be better) bottom line is the price you pay for them doesn’t change outcome of wager often enough to justify. Even if you think it works out for you I promise it is just perception, if you insist on doing it what you should do for the next year log when you do it, how often it changes outcome (not whether you simply win or lose but when those points actually change outcome), then do the math, bet you anything after that year you will see the bought points won’t change outcome at the clip of juice you lost on the losers..

I’m nit trying to come at you at all so please don’t take it that way, just trying to help. God knows back in my younger years I’ve thought it was a good idea myself at key numbers, after doing that exercise I mentioned to you I realized it really wasn’t.

[SBR Drew]

Hawaii -3 . Wyoming will get lit up like a Christmas tree here. Final should be in the neighborhood of 52-23 Hawaii.

[2daBank]

Hawaii -3 . Wyoming will get lit up like a Christmas tree here. Final should be in the neighborhood of 52-23 Hawaii.

Assuming that has to be at Wyoming or spread would be higher? God it hard to trust the rainbow warriors when they on mainland and this like their 3 straight away from island isn’t it??

[jtoler]

Assuming that has to be at Wyoming or spread would be higher? God it hard to trust the rainbow warriors when they on mainland and this like their 3 straight away from island isn’t it??

uh uh and Hawaii horrible on road has changed somewhat this year although the results have gotten closer like last week. this is at home and with teams like this with years of mediocrity seems oddsmakers like to bet on regression to the mean. unless there is something bigger going on like qb out I'll have to check later. otherwise giving wyoming respect seems they haven't earned

[reigle9]

Hawaii -3 . Wyoming will get lit up like a Christmas tree here. Final should be in the neighborhood of 52-23 Hawaii.

brutal post

if wyoming gives up 52, i'll never bet again

[reigle9]

not overly strong on any games this week

miami -12' was the first game i bet, so i guess that's my vote

nt -26' the only other i bet so far

[2daBank]

uh uh and Hawaii horrible on road has changed somewhat this year although the results have gotten closer like last week. this is at home and with teams like this with years of mediocrity seems oddsmakers like to bet on regression to the mean. unless there is something bigger going on like qb out I'll have to check later. otherwise giving wyoming respect seems they haven't earned

Wow it is in Hawaii! I’m no ncaa expert but man that seems like one those Hawaii bailout specials!! (For some reason I’ve actially seen both these teams play multiple games, lol). Wyo defense looks decent at times but shoot they will only be able to hold Hawaii so much and their offense just not explosive enough to keep up I don’t think. Gotta agree w you and Drew here, I’ll def be on rainbow warriors.

[2daBank]

brutal post

if wyoming gives up 52, i'll never bet again

Yea I don’t think Hawaii score that much, wyo defense is decent. Still I think Hawaii will put up more than enough to win comfortably, only issue is it one those feels too good to be true deals! Lol

[Cuse0323]

Agreed on Mizzou. Frustrating team to back, but I'm on them this week too.

Best bet is Syracuse though.

Ralphie knows. Cuse is gonna stomp sPitt.

[reigle9]

probably going to bet cuse if they get to -3

was just talking about that game on the psu board betting thread




earlier today - sure don't understand the line movement on pitt/cuse, i took cuse in a contest and will easily bet it if it gets to 3

-pitt/cuse line movement - listening to the westgate guy, early sharp play (which means max bet by a guy/group they respect that will move the line, then other decent money follows the line movement)

aka nothing fb related so idc, -3 all day if/when it gets there

[POTVINSUX]

Auburn

[reigle9]

just heard hawaii hasn't covered in the last 12 against fbs teams, makes sense since they're terrible...really not getting why yous like them

43 vs rice - bottom 5 team in the country

lost to army

42 vs a d2 school

44 vs san jose st - a bottom 5 team the last 2 years


they have a fake coaching staff and the D is useless

[Ralphie Halves]

just heard hawaii hasn't covered in the last 12 against fbs teams, makes sense since they're terrible...really not getting why yous like them

Pretty sure the Navy game was a cover.

But yeah, Hawaii is fools gold in a lot of ways.

[reigle9]

Pretty sure the Navy game was a cover.

But yeah, Hawaii is fools gold in a lot of ways.

the qualifier on how many games they haven't covered was inaudible, but my best guess was "fbs", not sure what it was

btw, i still don't know the diff between fbs/fcs without consciously thinking about it, half the time i think im confusing it with bcs..1A/1AA was infinitely easier, leave it to the ncaa to do shit the most retarded ass backwards way possible

[Renegades]

Agreed on Mizzou. Frustrating team to back, but I'm on them this week too.

Best bet is Syracuse though.

Syracuse makes no sense to me. That line opened at 5 and has come down. Pitt is bad on both sides of the ball

[Wesley]

take the over in every Hawaii game and you will be in the + at the end of season