I think I can win long-term.

**vampire assassin** · 11-05-18, 09:06 AM

A bigger question is where are you putting in these live bets? If at Bet365 or another rec-book, you won't be able to continue playing indefinitely. If you are beating Pinnacle or Betcris consistently, I'm impressed.

**September2029** · 11-05-18, 09:18 AM

I think my problem is my bankroll, my bet amount will be too little. I know I won't be able to play indefinitely as a winning player but all I need is 1 year on each of them but I should be at 100€+ stake at them and move up slowly and safe till go to 500€ stake. 5 years after, retired.

**The Kraken** · 11-05-18, 09:23 AM

If you find an angle, they’ll adjust. If you win for long, you’ll be limited. Fees. Dual lines, delays, etc... its not easy to win and its nearly impossible to win an amount that would be life altering. Better off with a 25 team parlay

**Snowball** · 11-05-18, 09:24 AM

300 matches a month and you're looking for +110 odds as an average?
There are not enough events to make these bets worthwhile or to even begin
to cap them. I realize you're not capping at all and just throwing darts at lines
hoping for almost 50% win rate, with the odds factor of +10% pushing you to
a profitable rate. A waste of time, likely fruitless.

**Foxx** · 11-05-18, 09:24 AM

What happens in September 2029?

**September2029** · 11-05-18, 09:26 AM

I quit on September 2029. I'll make a thread on 1.09.2019 here and show you how I made 500k€.

**September2029** · 11-05-18, 09:27 AM

I bet on soccer, over only, goals and corners Mr Snowball

**Hot Jerry** · 11-05-18, 10:42 AM

Learn how to handicap first ur self . Dont trust anyone with ur picks , I rather loose my money with my pics then with someone else pics. YES , Im living prove of that u can make money betting sport .

**danshan11** · 11-05-18, 10:59 AM

1000 bets is nothing, variance will hit you on this nearly 40% of the time, make you look good or bad when you are not either
are you beating the line by more than the HUGE live margin overall? This is very important part to know how you are doing

if Pinnacle has -130 and you are betting at -130, win lose or draw, you will lose the margin eventually.
now if you are betting -130 and pinnacle has -150 you are on the right track.

they set the line at -130 that means you are paying for a 56.52% win probability and the real win probability is probably closer to 54% or even more on live betting (huge huge margins), this means you lose long run
but if you are betting at -130 and you now have a 54% chance to win and the line is at pinnacle -150 means you have a 58ish% probability and that is a winner long term.

any other scenario is noise!

**danshan11** · 11-05-18, 11:00 AM

Originally posted by Hot Jerry

Learn how to handicap first ur self . Dont trust anyone with ur picks , I rather loose my money with my pics then with someone else pics. YES , Im living prove of that u can make money betting sport .

what sports do you bet on? and what kind of wager size? and when you say living proof, how long how many games? how are you doing against the closing line?

**jjgold** · 11-05-18, 11:01 AM

good laughs

**danshan11** · 11-05-18, 11:02 AM

I love these convos, they are my favorites, its why everyone hates me here. I bring a harsh reality nobody wants to see!

when I first got into sports betting, I did not want to hear what I say now either!

**September2029** · 11-05-18, 11:33 AM

dashdan11 if 1000 is nothing, should I take a look at 10000? It will take 3 years.

**jjgold** · 11-05-18, 11:44 AM

Be careful men he is setting up at tout site we’ve caught many guys like this

It’s all a set up and he’s gonna try to get suckers like fishing

**September2029** · 11-05-18, 11:50 AM

I'll start in 1 January 2019 with 100€ and end on 1 September 2029 with 500.000€. Will do an uptade that day if SBR will be online that day.

**September2029** · 11-05-18, 11:58 AM

3953 days left. Long enough to turn 100€ into 500k

**danshan11** · 11-05-18, 12:19 PM

Originally posted by September2029

dashdan11 if 1000 is nothing, should I take a look at 10000? It will take 3 years.

yeah that is the beauty of how they keep the lights on,
Step 1 beat our line OK got it check step 2
Step 2 Do it enough times to overcome variance ( got it ok step 3
Step 3 Now find somehwere else to bet it cause we dont like bettors like you, now stop long enough to forget and start again!

**danshan11** · 11-05-18, 12:20 PM

IMHO the only way to win is to beat the line consistently and to do it 1000s of times to overcome variance.

**danshan11** · 11-05-18, 12:21 PM

spin a 2 option sim spinner 1000 times 10 or 20 times and you will get scared very fast

**Sawyer** · 11-05-18, 01:01 PM

I don't understand why people stress themselves so much about straight betting specially when there's so many ways to make money in sports betting such as bonus hunting, arbitrage, middles, live arbing, turnover cashback, value betting, affiliate business etc.

**danshan11** · 11-05-18, 01:05 PM

what is value betting?

**jjgold** · 11-05-18, 01:24 PM

That strategy is zero risk and the only people that do win

Originally posted by Sawyer

I don't understand why people stress themselves so much about straight betting specially when there's so many ways to make money in sports betting such as bonus hunting, arbitrage, middles, live arbing, turnover cashback, value betting, affiliate business etc.

**Hot Jerry** · 11-05-18, 01:33 PM

Originally posted by danshan11

what sports do you bet on? and what kind of wager size? and when you say living proof, how long how many games? how are you doing against the closing line?

Make 3-5 units of profit every week and u do fine , what ever is ur unit . That is NOT that hard !! Dont have to bet every day , be patient , wait for one game that u like a lot and u handicapped ur self ! Learn how to handicap 2 or 3 sports and that all u bet ! Bet even money 95 % of the time on each game !! Stay with 3-5 games range , never bet more then 5 games ! Here and there u may find a game that u bet lil bit harder [ 2-3 ] units , because u like the game [ not because u like them to win - emotional game , but because u look over this game 50 + times !! ] . It takes time to get to big league !!

**Hot Jerry** · 11-05-18, 01:38 PM

Originally posted by danshan11

what sports do you bet on? and what kind of wager size? and when you say living proof, how long how many games? how are you doing against the closing line?

And yes u WILL have a BAD day it happens to all of us , but u have whole week to correct that !!

**danshan11** · 11-05-18, 01:45 PM

Originally posted by Hot Jerry

Make 3-5 units of profit every week and u do fine , what ever is ur unit . That is NOT that hard !! Dont have to bet every day , be patient , wait for one game that u like a lot and u handicapped ur self ! Learn how to handicap 2 or 3 sports and that all u bet ! Bet even money 95 % of the time on each game !! Stay with 3-5 games range , never bet more then 5 games ! Here and there u may find a game that u bet lil bit harder [ 2-3 ] units , because u like the game [ not because u like them to win - emotional game , but because u look over this game 50 + times !! ] . It takes time to get to big league !!

I think 3 to 5 units of profit every day is impossible unless you are betting 300-500 units a day at a +1% edge. I have never seen anyone (I dont know everyone) win more than .5% to 1% long term, not saying there are not exceptions to any rule but above 1% is HUGE!

**Hot Jerry** · 11-05-18, 01:51 PM

I didn't say every day my friend - read my first sentence !!

**jjgold** · 11-05-18, 02:04 PM

Don’t quit your job you’ll be sorry

**Hot Jerry** · 11-05-18, 02:15 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

Don’t quit your job you’ll be sorry

JJ - LOL , I will not - promise !! I have to work for one more year JJ and I be 67 next October and Im done working . Be having beers , counting my money , every week go to the bank do my NCAA FB , NFL , NBA and NCAA BK deposits and living abroad . With smile on my face , having steaks , girls and having fun like there is no tomorrow !

**danshan11** · 11-05-18, 02:31 PM

Originally posted by Hot Jerry

I didn't say every day my friend - read my first sentence !!

3 to 5 units a week, I am sorry but still that would require you to wager with a 1% edge about 300-500 units a week, are you doing that?

**danshan11** · 11-05-18, 02:31 PM

Originally posted by Hot Jerry

JJ - LOL , I will not - promise !! I have to work for one more year JJ and I be 67 next October and Im done working . Be having beers , counting my money , every week go to the bank do my NCAA FB , NFL , NBA and NCAA BK deposits and living abroad . With smile on my face , having steaks , girls and having fun like there is no tomorrow !

can i go with you? I dont eat much and I barely pick any winners!

**Hot Jerry** · 11-05-18, 03:01 PM

[QUOTE=danshan11;28156327]3 to 5 units a week, I am sorry but still that would require you to wager with a 1% edge about 300-500 units a week, are you doing that?[/QUOTE

YES I been doing that for past 35 years my friend .

**Hot Jerry** · 11-05-18, 03:04 PM

Originally posted by danshan11

can i go with you? I dont eat much and I barely pick any winners!

LOL - LOL - make ur self some money first my friend and then u will not need me [ lol ] , the sport is giving away money .

**September2029** · 11-05-18, 03:28 PM

Hot Jerry, you have been betting more years than my age.

**jjgold** · 11-05-18, 03:31 PM

Jerry where you moving too??