Barclays Scottish Open Golf

**Willie Bee** · 07-07-09, 01:59 PM

I've lost a week somehow in the past few days, means the Open Championship is really sneaking up on us.

Good call on Goosen

**smitch124** · 07-07-09, 02:31 PM

Gooooooooooooooooooooooose!

I'm on it, GL to us!

**englishmike** · 07-07-09, 02:49 PM

Like I said Smitch, you could debate all day whether he'll win or not but his price doesn't reflect his true chance.

**Art Vandeleigh** · 07-07-09, 04:11 PM

Two weeks ago Goosen had a great chance to win the BMW Int'l in Munich (2 shot lead going into the final round) on the Euro-tour before kind of gagging a bit in the final round and ending up 3rd so yeah, he's still in very good form at the moment, just isn't quite closing the door on the field.

Btw in that Munich tournament Nick Dougherty had a 4 shot lead with 3 holes left, when the 2nd place guy (Rafa Echenique) who was playing two holes ahead of him shot an albatross on the closing hole, that is he a shot a 2 on a par 5 (!!!!) to cut lead down to one. You should have seen the look on Dougherty's face when he found out his 4 shot lead had been sliced to one with one shot! Anyhow Dougherty manged to close with 2 pars and hold on for the win. Never seen anything like that.

**englishmike** · 07-07-09, 04:19 PM

I saw most of the last round Art and Goosen just couldn't get his round started and by coincidence, was exactly what Anthony Kim did last Sunday against Tiger.

Whilst you're right, he blew the lead, as you also point out he finished third and that would be worth 7.5 Units to me, so although there are definetly two ways to view a player who should have won but didn't, the bottom line is he's in prime form as regards top ten and I'll take my chances from there.

Good luck if you play.

**Matt Rain** · 07-07-09, 05:40 PM

On it! +3000 and +750

Thanks and GL once again Mike.

**shhhhh22** · 07-08-09, 02:19 AM

Originally posted by Matt Rain

On it! +3000 and +750

Thanks and GL once again Mike.

+750????

**PAPSMEAR** · 07-08-09, 04:36 AM

does anyone ever consistently win by betting on golf - it's like playing lotto

**shhhhh22** · 07-08-09, 04:46 AM

Originally posted by PAPSMEAR

does anyone ever consistently win by betting on golf - it's like playing lotto

picking a tourney winner is certainly not easy. but the real money in golf is in the matchups. I personally like top 5 finish futures as well.

**Matt Rain** · 07-08-09, 08:35 AM

Originally posted by shhhhh22

+750????

+3000 outright and +750 for a Top 5 finish, yes.

**englishmike** · 07-08-09, 02:13 PM

Originally posted by shhhhh22

picking a tourney winner is certainly not easy. but the real money in golf is in the matchups. I personally like top 5 finish futures as well.

The top five finish future you refer to is what Matt Rains +750 will be.

Aren't you somewhat contradicting yourself though?

If you go to the time and trouble to cap a person whom you beileve will finish in the top 5, isn't the logical next step to beileve he can win?

I'm curious in as much as, win and top 5 finish are one and the same, if a player is good enough to finish top 5 he's good enough to win.

For example, with 9 holes to play, Players A & B are joint leaders on -2, C & D are at -1 and your man is fifth on level par.

If those 4 ahead of you shoot +3 for the final 9 holes and your man shoots level, you win, my point being, when you get in the top 5 you can win tournaments because other players give it to you, so picking a player to finish top 5 is no different to picking to win and the risk of picking a man to finish top 5 who then wins at a juicy price that you haven't got is not something I could do.

Obviously thats just my opinion, other people might think i'm completely wrong.

**Smogs** · 07-08-09, 02:37 PM

I fully agree on Retief but my personal pick is Johan Edfors. I think i saw him at 70/1 and will pop across to betfair to place it.
He won this tourney in 2006, is in the top 20 in the rankings and is consistently making the cut.

Can he push on and find his 2006 form? maybe/maybe not, but definitely worth a trading opportunity at the very least on betfair

**englishmike** · 07-08-09, 02:43 PM

Good luck Smoggy, it's worth taking a chance on anyone above 50-1 who's shown he can win this tourney.

**shhhhh22** · 07-08-09, 02:51 PM

Thank you guys for the clarification of +750... total brain fart moment there...

with regards to top 5 vs. overall winner. to me it's much easier to pick a top 5 finisher (i.e. someone who will have a strong showing, but no having to deal with tie breakers, one bad putt can knock you from 1st to 2nd. Top 5 gives you a bit more insurance for your $$. I'm sure a-lot of people see this as backasswards... but it makes sense in my head!

Of course I'll end this by saying what you say makes sense, I'm open to a new approach to my golf betting!... I'm interested in your reply...

**englishmike** · 07-08-09, 03:21 PM

Your opinion is just as valid as mine, so there isn't a right or wrong.

I'd just hate to back a player to finish top 5 who then won at 100-1 odds, i mean, even though the 25-1 for top 5 would be nice I'd be devastated at missing the 100-1.

My view is, the thing that seperates golf from any other sport is the fact you get two chances per week to pick massive priced winners, and indeed top 5 finishers.

On the PGA tour, Tiger Woods leads scoring average with 68.26 shots per round but the gap from David Toms in second (69.23) to charles Warren at 100 (70.89) is 1.6 shots per round making a total of 6.4 shots per round.

So in any given tournament, David Toms should beat Charles Warren by 6.4 strokes and bookies definetly use these stats in going some way to producing a betting market, however, if you then look at the stats you'll see Charles Warren and David Toms both finished T18 at the Quail Hollow Championship at the beginning of May where Toms would have been 50-1 and Warren would have been 250-1.

So to answer your question, if you find a golfer that you feel is playing ok golf, never let the price make you think he can't win, he most certainly can, so once you've deduced your chosen golfer is capable of going well you may as well either double your stake and have 1 unit win, 1 unit place of halve it and .5 win, .5 place, that would be my take.

Again, it's just my view, everyones way of handicapping is different, as are their staking plans, so there really is no right or wrong, just differing opinions of the same thing and the bottom line in all of this is, if you find something that works for you never change it unless you're convinced you can improve, so if playing top 5's makes you money stick with it, you're obviously doing something right.

**englishmike** · 07-09-09, 08:49 AM

Originally posted by Matt Rain

On it! +3000 and +750

Thanks and GL once again Mike.

Leader at 7 under but the Goose is loose, -4 thru 9!

**Smogs** · 07-09-09, 05:04 PM

Oh well, dropped off at the end to finish -3.

Edfors was a pain in the arse today, -1 thru 2 and +2 finish

**Art Vandeleigh** · 07-10-09, 06:49 AM

Goosen. Wow!

Shoots 63 today (-8) and leading tourny by 2 at the moment.

Odds are now 3.7-1 at Betfair.

**PAPSMEAR** · 07-10-09, 06:52 AM

i didn't play mike but 30/1 is looking like a sharp play at this satge and this guy once he gets a sniff is not a noted choker...GL my man

**englishmike** · 07-10-09, 08:13 AM

This is the second consecutive week I'm on the leader at halfway but let's not forget what happened to Anthony Kim last week!

**Matt Rain** · 07-10-09, 09:11 AM

**englishmike** · 07-10-09, 09:15 AM

You know the drill Matt.

It's halfway, bottom line is we have 30-1 about a 5-2 chance and we'd take that every day for the rest of our lives so let's just hope The Goose can do his part.

**Smogs** · 07-10-09, 10:08 AM

Thank you betfair, i traded out goosen to cover the bet so i still will make a lot if he wins but with no risk

Green Screen!!

(makes up for edfors costing me in my other bet)

**smitch124** · 07-10-09, 11:28 AM

Gooooooooooseee!!!

**Matt Rain** · 07-11-09, 01:49 PM

1 back going into the final round.

**englishmike** · 07-11-09, 01:51 PM

Good thing is he's three clear of sixth, so we're looking good for a 7 Unit profit but the win would make us drunk.

**Matt Rain** · 07-11-09, 01:53 PM

Originally posted by englishmike

Good thing is he's three clear of sixth, so we're looking good for a 7 Unit profit but the win would make us drunk.

You said it!

**englishmike** · 07-12-09, 08:02 AM

30-1 Goosen is in a three-way tie for first through five holes, very very nervewracking.

**Smogs** · 07-12-09, 08:21 AM

He's not making it easy for us to relax

**englishmike** · 07-12-09, 08:24 AM

I've got four figures riding on this and that's only half of what Matt Rain stands to win, it's fukkin brutal, he just can't break free although he's still joint leader.

**raydog** · 07-12-09, 09:05 AM

mike, i look at it this way... ive blown 200 on much worse bets than a 30-1 who should have been a dozen less. 4 back at the turn and the backside is a joke. hope you can still cash the top 5 play. tief is done

**raydog** · 07-12-09, 09:21 AM

nice 4 putt you fukking hack.

**englishmike** · 07-12-09, 09:39 AM

Raymondo,
He 4 putted. Seriously.

**raydog** · 07-12-09, 09:51 AM

4 wiggle on 10 for double. +5 for the day. unreal choke job. i guess putting a little money on a top 5 for the guy who won last week would have been too easy...